Posted 2024-December-29, 19:06
Well, I don't play Bergen with pickups, mostly because they know what 3♣ means, and that's the only possible meaning, and the next pickup will think the opposite. And there's a good chance both of them will explain it as "reverse Bergen".
But "not trusting partner to guess the continuations right if I don't bid 4NT" is another reason.
What do we need for slam? ♣A or ♣KQ (because we're playing the hand; if the A is offside we're doomed), and either the ♥Q or the ♦K to clear those up, and probably something in spades (the Q would be best, but JT is okay). With those cards, we have a club loser and a hope for "one finesse". What is the 3♣ range? 7-9? Well, they'd better be not only on the top, but perfectos, and even then it's not 100%.
Instead you got a minimum with a club card, and while the hearts are nice, you got neither the 2-2 spade break nor the 5-2 or 4-3 heart break. So now you have a club loser, the diamond has to be onside, and even then there's no play.
29-point slams frequently make, but you need to see the tricks. Yeah, I'd make a try, and I might even be basically forced there with a club control and the ♠Q, but really, where are the 9 HCP, and what's our chance of 12 tricks if they have it? And can I find out if they have it, or this hand? I mean, swap the ♥Q with the ♥5 and it at least has play, but it's still at best 50%, and that's a GOOD maximum.
I've been learning SMP with a new partner, and doing a *lot* of "placing partner's HCP" for slam purposes recently. And failing, hard, the same way as here (Simon's "overbid their good hands").
When I go to sea, don't fear for me, Fear For The Storm -- Birdie and the Swansong (tSCoSI)