[lamford]

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Playing with an occasional partner you keep the bidding simple and reach the excellent Six Spades. How are you going to play? This section is for Novices and Beginners. If you are not in that category, don't answer!

[Cyberyeti]

I've had almost exactly this hand but in 4 with the diamond suit Qxx/Jxx.

[mikeh]

This is me not answering

[lamford]

mikeh, on 2024-June-19, 12:10, said:

This is me not answering

You can do the same hand at matchpoints!

[lamford]

.

[shyams]

One of the differences between good players and those that are learners is that the good players delay taking a finesse until they have more information. Occasionally this leads to them avoid the finesse altogether.

Spoiler

If you think taking both red suit finesses one after the other, I think there is something better.

Spoiler

Say a club is led.
Win it in dummy (doesn't matter if you win with the King instead),
draw trumps (3 rounds if opponent trumps split 3-0),
cash our remaining Club winner,
and play ♥A, followed by ♥K, then ♥9 to the Jack.
Opponent wins and is endplayed.

North South have no clubs or hearts left.
If they lead a diamond, you have no guess -- you score 3 diamond tricks.
If they lead clubs or hearts, you ruff in dummy and discard a diamond from South's hand.

Contract made.

The presence of the ♦J in the South hand and the ♦10 in dummy ensures the contract.

[pescetom]

A comment on the spoiler protected solution of shyams.

Spoiler

shyams, on 2024-June-20, 21:14, said:

If you think taking both red suit finesses one after the other, I think there is something better.

Say a club is led.
Win it in dummy (doesn't matter if you win with the King instead),
draw trumps (3 rounds if opponent trumps split 3-0),
cash our remaining Club winner,
and play ♥A, followed by ♥K, then ♥9 to the Jack.
Opponent wins and is endplayed.

North South have no clubs or hearts left.
If they lead a diamond, you have no guess -- you score 3 diamond tricks.
If they lead clubs or hearts, you ruff in dummy and discard a diamond from South's hand.
Contract made.

The presence of the ♦J in the South hand and the ♦10 in dummy ensures the contract.

The strip and throw in solution is elegant and safe, but at MP scoring it might be better to take both red finesses all the same: that's what most of those in the same contract will be doing and the gain of the safe solution if both finesses fail does not (I would have thought) offset the loss if both succeed. Of course it depends partly on what average percentage you are aiming for and how likely your competitors are to bid the same slam (but here it looks fairly inevitable, even if South upgrades into a 2NT opening).

[AL78]

shyams, on 2024-June-20, 21:14, said:

One of the differences between good players and those that are learners is that the good players delay taking a finesse until they have more information. Occasionally this leads to them avoid the finesse altogether.

Spoiler

If you think taking both red suit finesses one after the other, I think there is something better.

Spoiler

Say a club is led.
Win it in dummy (doesn't matter if you win with the King instead),
draw trumps (3 rounds if opponent trumps split 3-0),
cash our remaining Club winner,
and play ♥A, followed by ♥K, then ♥9 to the Jack.
Opponent wins and is endplayed.

North South have no clubs or hearts left.
If they lead a diamond, you have no guess -- you score 3 diamond tricks.
If they lead clubs or hearts, you ruff in dummy and discard a diamond from South's hand.

Contract made.

The presence of the ♦J in the South hand and the ♦10 in dummy ensures the contract.

There is a Bridgemaster deal that is vitrually identical to this one.

[mycroft]

This is me wondering what the opening lead is before not answering.

Spoiler

Yes, I know it doesn't matter, but it's unusual enough to not have it that it's a flag.

[pescetom]

mycroft, on 2024-June-21, 11:18, said:

This is me wondering what the opening lead is before not answering.

Spoiler

Yes, I know it doesn't matter, but it's unusual enough to not have it that it's a flag.

It's a neat problem and I don't think that a black lead would have ruined things, at least for N/B.

Spoiler

Whereas a red lead would pinpoint the crucial difference between the two holdings.

[thepossum]

Spoiler

I think NBs should be encouraged to take information from the lead before planning anything
So I haven't answered either

[mikeh]

pescetom, on 2024-June-21, 09:00, said:

A comment on the spoiler protected solution of shyams.

Spoiler

The strip and throw in solution is elegant and safe, but at MP scoring it might be better to take both red finesses all the same: that's what most of those in the same contract will be doing and the gain of the safe solution if both finesses fail does not (I would have thought) offset the loss if both succeed. Of course it depends partly on what average percentage you are aiming for and how likely your competitors are to bid the same slam (but here it looks fairly inevitable, even if South upgrades into a 2NT opening).

Imo, taking even one finesse, let alone two, is a serious error even at mps.

The arithmetic is quite simple. If both finesses work, you get a tied for top. That’s a 25% likelihood. If one out of two works (50%) you get tied for at worst average and usually a little over average. Let’s say 55%…which basically means about one in ten pairs miss slam. It’s very rare, in a typical mp field, for there to be no pair missing even a seemingly easy slam.

If both finesses lose, you get tied for zero. Let’s at that tied for top is 90% and tied for zero is 10%. Spurning both finesses gets you 55%. So you are trying to gain 35% by taking both finesses while risking 45% when you go down in a cold contract.

It’s extremely rare to encounter a situation in which you should knowingly risk a bad board by taking a gamb,ing line of play in a normal contract

The time to take the gambling line is when you’re in a contract that most wouldn’t be…say you’re in 3N when the field rates to be in an easy 4M. You have 9 tricks but you can see that 4M easily scores 10. Now it makes sense to risk going down in an effort to make ten tricks…if you succeed you’ve turned a 10% score into 90%, while if you fail, you’ve turned a 10% score into zero. That’s not this hand.

Of course, if you know that you need a top board (maybe it’s barometer scoring) then the foregoing analysis is irrelevant.

[smerriman]

Even if 100% of the field was in slam, wouldn't both finesses still be a losing option in the long run due to the possibility of dropping Qx hearts offside? (Or even the possibility that a single table gets a red suit lead..)

[Cyberyeti]

For N/B Mike is correct. In a top class MP field, you also need to compare with 6N where they will take both finesses, and I'm not sure what effect that has (it's also possible they get a heart lead played by N which complicates things with further guesses).