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Beer Card What is the right line?

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2023-November-07, 11:37


I was not sure what the right line was here. Partner's inv raise was a bit light, and the final contract was not great.
How would you play?

Trump lead sorry. All follow. Mea culpa.
which reminds me:
Crossword Clue: Mooning at the bridge table? (9)
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#2 User is online   pescetom 

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Posted 2023-November-07, 11:43

Do I get a diamonds lead? :)
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#3 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2023-November-07, 12:34

There are nine top tricks and two heart ruffs for 11 which leads me to look for squeeze chances. My plan is to run the J, if East ducks and it loses take another diamond finesse hoping the honors are split. If East covers then duck, win the return, draw trumps and ruff hearts, cash A, cash remaining spades. If the second diamond honor hasn't appeared cash club honors and hope the third club is now a winner. It needs a very favourable layout but that is what happens when you land in a poor contract.

If the lead is a diamond that gives me a second diamond trick so I assume the lead is something else (a heart probably).
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#4 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2023-November-07, 14:06

I’ll forgo my usual rant about not being given relevant information. The OP normally does tell us so I suspect this was just an oversight. Unfortunately the lead is of more than usual importance here.

It may be irrelevant, but I can’t assess that since I don’t know what it was. To show why it might be important, one of the holdings we need to consider is west holding Hxx or Hx in diamonds

We then lead towards the Jack. If west ducks, we later ruff out his honour, establishing our ten. If he pops, we later hook east.

Say west lead a low heart or club. We can infer that he almost surely held an honour or two in his led suit, which makes it dangerous. Since xxx or xxxx etc in diamonds looks neutral, we may infer that a club or heart spot lead suggests Hx(x)(x) or so in diamonds, increasing the odds of this play.

In contrast, the lead of, say, the club Queen would strengthen considering a minor suit squeeze on west. But we’d want to know something about shape before we committed to the squeeze.

One of the advantages (there are disadvantages) of blasting to game or slam is that oftentimes the opps are forced, at least early in the play, to give honest signals so as to help partner. We can use this to our advantage on occasion.

So I’m not going to address my line of play until the OP adds more data. Btw, the title of the thread suggests that we either have a minor suit squeeze (which could work against either opp if they haven’t led a club and continued when they win a diamond) or that east has H98 in diamonds (low from dummy, covering east’s card). That’s very remote. But the squeeze may not be…we need 5 clubs or QJ10 in one hand along with Hxxx in diamonds.
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#5 User is offline   fuzzyquack 

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Posted 2023-November-12, 03:37

Assuming no D lead, Hxx with the lefty or HHx in any hand seem to be by far the best chance
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#6 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2023-November-14, 13:27

If you run the jack of diamonds, say at trick three, it goes x x honour. Now if you cash the ace of diamonds RHO plays the 8. Average players. What now?
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#7 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2023-November-14, 15:32

View Postlamford, on 2023-November-14, 13:27, said:

If you run the jack of diamonds, say at trick three, it goes x x honour. Now if you cash the ace of diamonds RHO plays the 8. Average players. What now?

We still don’t know the lead, which is sometbing I suspect I’d know at the table.

I frankly don’t understand leading the diamond Jack, btw.
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#8 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2023-November-14, 16:30

View Postmikeh, on 2023-November-14, 15:32, said:

We still don’t know the lead, which is sometbing I suspect I’d know at the table.

I nearly missed this too but it was edited into the initial message (trump).
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#9 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2023-November-14, 17:47

I don’t have a lot of information. I could try win in hand, heart to the ace, trump o dummy, ruff a heart.

It’s unlikely that either opp will give honest count or any count in hearts but someone has the other trump and well know that tiny bit.

If RHO has the last defensive trump, I’ll play him for the shorter diamonds and play low towards the 10. Leading the Jack is silly….if RHO has Hxx, he covers and down I go, absent a very unlikely squeeze. I plan to later play Ace and ruff a diamond. This preserves some remote squeeze possibilities

If LHO has the last trump, I play him for Hxx. Now leading the Jack makes sense since I’d love a cover from Hxxx but I think I’d still lead low from hand towards the Jack. If he pops, unblock the Jack

I can then play for the finesse, combining it with a slender squeeze possibility….I’ll reduce to x void void K9x opposite void void 10 Axx and lead the last trump, pitching a club.

If LHO ducks my lead towards the Jack, I’ll hope that RHO doesn’t immediately return one, forcing me to guess whether LHO ducked from Hxx or tyat RHO started with KQx(x). Against many players, I’d have some clue from their table action but not against good players. I’ll reserve my right to admit to my line, if this happens, later.

Many defenders would grab the queen from Qxx as LHO and some from Qxxx or even Kx(x) and others would at least flinch.
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#10 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2023-November-14, 22:07

View Postmikeh, on 2023-November-14, 15:32, said:

We still don’t know the lead, which is something I suspect I’d know at the table.

I frankly don’t understand leading the diamond Jack, btw.

Well, leading the jack will pick up KQx(x) on your right and also KQx on your left. You are not likely to make it when there is Hxx on your right, as they will surely cover. But you weren't making it anyway.

If they don't cover, we will cash the ace and if the eight or nine doesn't appear with East we have to try for KQx with West. However, if the eight or nine does appear, we should lead the ten against most people. If East has (correctly) played the 8 or 9 on the second round from 98xx we will pay off to that.

But, most importantly, when East has 98x we will get a beer as we can win the last trick with the seven of diamonds.
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