[straube]

Playing 2/1 IMPs your partner opens 1D and rebids 3N after a club preempt.

1D (3C) P P 3N P ?

Your hand...

xxx QTxxxx xx xx

Forgot the vulnerability

[mw64ahw]

3NT bidder can have a wide range of hcp, say 16-22, depending on whether they have running ♦ or not. I'm not making many tricks in NT unless partner has AKx so will convert to ♥

[helene_t]

I will pass. Partner could be short in hearts, or could have a club honour that needs protection against the lead, or could simply have 9 tricks with or without my hearts. There's also the risk that opps start with club to the ace and club ruff.

If we played transfers here I would be more inclined to bid.

[Cyberyeti]

For the purpose of evaluating this I normally assume partner has a stiff ace of my suit, this is a tough one, if I had Q1098xx I'd probably remove, but the risk that partner actually has 9 tricks in his hand (or 8 and we're going further off in hearts) probably inclines me to pass.

[mw64ahw]

 helene_t, on 2023-August-18, 02:23, said:

I will pass. Partner could be short in hearts, or could have a club honour that needs protection against the lead, or could simply have 9 tricks with or without my hearts. There's also the risk that opps start with club to the ace and club ruff.

If we played transfers here I would be more inclined to bid.

Seems like transfers rather than natural are more sensible?

[TylerE]

 mw64ahw, on 2023-August-17, 23:39, said:

3NT bidder can have a wide range of hcp, say 16-22, depending on whether they have running ♦ or not. I'm not making many tricks in NT unless partner has AKx so will convert to ♥

3N here shows tricks, period.

Paaaaaaas.

[mikeh]

While the saying that ‘3N ends all auctions’ is a gross overstatement, there is a strong element of truth in it….context dependent, of course.

What can we infer about partner’s hand?

Now, this is in the novice and beginner forum so one cannot be sure that partner has what he should have, but guessing that he’s made a mistake is not the way to play bridge, even if one is correct. If he’s screwed up, use this as a learning experience.

With that in mind:

He should NOT have:

1. a 2N opening or better…he shouldn’t open 1D

2. A balanced 2N rebid…say some 5332 18 count with one or two club stoppers. While responder could have a decent hand, sufficient for game, and be unable to bid over 3C, the odds are that responder is passing due to having a weak hand.

3. A hand with 3+ in each major….either that’s a pass (see point 2) or it’s a reopening double (which usually denies strong clubs)

What he should have is a hand with 6+ solid or near-solid diamonds and at least one club stopper plus major values

Ax Kx AKQxxx Axx…no…that’s 2N (or 2C then 2N if feeling optimistic)

Qx Kx AKJ109x AJ10

That’s plausible

Ax x AKQxxxx Axx. Entirely possible. Yes, it’s a gamble but the odds are against them running hearts on the go

I’ll stop there: when thinking of hands partner might have, it’s usually a mistake o overthink it, and very much a mistake to assume that he holds a hand that meshes well with what you feel tempted to do.

So if you’re thinking ‘I’d like to play in hearts’ you’ll think of hands that make 4H as good as or better than 3N, but the odds are you’ll be disappointed. Pass

[thepossum]

While I was running my Sim I guessed on 4H

3NT was around 60% and 4H around 70% to make (EDIT -error see below)

Who knows what the downsides are - I can't do calculations like that in my heads. MPs or IMPs - I always have to refer to a duplicate table such as that on Mr Pavlicek's site. And we don't know our vulnerability. Doesn't IMPs mean you go for game if you can. I am suitably modest to suggest that I am very lucky bidder who at least has the brains never to play for money
EDIT pointsdiff -65 without knowing vulnerability - using an average - so my luck holds

EDIT 2 Correction. Bug. Still analysing - hardly novice beginner stuff. I made an error. Its around equal 20-25% chance of each and -100 average so hearts still win. 20 hands out of 152 million. Hardly NB material. Still happy with my hearts guess but seriously

[mw64ahw]

 thepossum, on 2023-August-19, 00:56, said:

While I was running my Sim I guessed on 4H

3NT was around 60% and 4H around 70% to make (EDIT -error see below)

Who knows what the downsides are - I can't do calculations like that in my heads. MPs or IMPs - I always have to refer to a duplicate table such as that on Mr Pavlicek's site. And we don't know our vulnerability. Doesn't IMPs mean you go for game if you can. I am suitably modest to suggest that I am very lucky bidder who at least has the brains never to play for money
EDIT pointsdiff -65 without knowing vulnerability - using an average - so my luck holds

EDIT 2 Correction. Bug. Still analysing - hardly novice beginner stuff. I made an error. Its around equal 20-25% chance of each and -100 average so hearts still win. 20 hands out of 152 million. Hardly NB material. Still happy with my hearts guess but seriously

Sounds about right
If you have 9 tricks in hand then you don't open 1♦ so opener must have less than 9 tricks.
xxx QTxxxx xx xx is unlikely to contribute anything unless ♥ are trumps

[Cyberyeti]

 mw64ahw, on 2023-August-19, 11:29, said:

Sounds about right
If you have 9 tricks in hand then you don't open 1♦ so opener must have less than 9 tricks.
xxx QTxxxx xx xx is unlikely to contribute anything unless ♥ are trumps

What else do you open with Axx, x, AKQxxxx, Ax ?

[Gilithin]

 Cyberyeti, on 2023-August-19, 13:20, said:

What else do you open with Axx, x, AKQxxxx, Ax ?

Well given that you are English, I would expect the majority in your club to open 2♣ or 2♦.

[mikeh]

 thepossum, on 2023-August-19, 00:56, said:

While I was running my Sim I guessed on 4H

3NT was around 60% and 4H around 70% to make (EDIT -error see below)

Who knows what the downsides are - I can't do calculations like that in my heads. MPs or IMPs - I always have to refer to a duplicate table such as that on Mr Pavlicek's site. And we don't know our vulnerability. Doesn't IMPs mean you go for game if you can. I am suitably modest to suggest that I am very lucky bidder who at least has the brains never to play for money
EDIT pointsdiff -65 without knowing vulnerability - using an average - so my luck holds

EDIT 2 Correction. Bug. Still analysing - hardly novice beginner stuff. I made an error. Its around equal 20-25% chance of each and -100 average so hearts still win. 20 hands out of 152 million. Hardly NB material. Still happy with my hearts guess but seriously

I’m willing to bet that I wouldn’t agree with your constraints for opener’s hands. Posting simulation results without posting the constraints you used isn’t just useless: it may be actively misleading.

Secondly, I’m willing to bet that you didn’t look at whether 4H would get doubled by your LHO sitting on a heart stack. Whether at mps or, often more significantly, imps, the prospect of going for 300 or 500 in 4H should tilt the odds in favour of passing. Now, it’s possible that LHO can usefully double 3N but we have just enough diamonds to reduce that risk….had we a stiff, LHO might be (and I suppose still might be) looking at something like J109xx, knowing that opener is gambling on running his suit. But the odds of a bad heart break, when partner hasn’t indicated any length there, must be greater than that diamonds are really foul. That’s one area where a sim might have value.

Simulations have their uses, provided that the constraints are reasonable and one can overcome the double dummy bias that infects pretty much every analysis based on simulations and double dummy thinking. Otherwise they are just another rabbit hole down which too many players go in lieu of learning to play bridge by developing judgment.

[Cyberyeti]

 Gilithin, on 2023-August-19, 13:43, said:

Well given that you are English, I would expect the majority in your club to open 2♣ or 2♦.

This is nowhere near 2♣ and 2♦ is more often weak, precision style, a multi or weak with both majors than benji or an acol 2 at least where I'm from.

[pescetom]

 Cyberyeti, on 2023-August-19, 14:03, said:

This is nowhere near 2♣ and 2♦ is more often weak, precision style, a multi or weak with both majors than benji or an acol 2 at least where I'm from.

I too was surprised that this would be considered normal in EBU, where knickers are notoriously in a twist about 2♣ with limited HCP.
It would be a near automatic 2♣ for most club players in Italy.

[AL78]

 Cyberyeti, on 2023-August-19, 14:03, said:

This is nowhere near 2♣ and 2♦ is more often weak, precision style, a multi or weak with both majors than benji or an acol 2 at least where I'm from.

I would expect at least a few of the Benji players at my club to be opening that 2♣ (8-9 playing tricks in a suit).

[Cyberyeti]

 AL78, on 2023-August-19, 15:16, said:

I would expect at least a few of the Benji players at my club to be opening that 2♣ (8-9 playing tricks in a suit).

Well half of the zero benji players in my club might too, it is a perfectly sensible benji 2♣.

[Gilithin]

 Cyberyeti, on 2023-August-19, 15:40, said:

Well half of the zero benji players in my club might too, it is a perfectly sensible benji 2♣.

My experience of the BBO Acol Club has been that there are at least as many that play Benji by choice as 3 Weaks, with a small scattering still preferring Strong 2s. 3 Weaks tends to be more common in pick-up partnerships as the 3 Weak partner tends to get in with a Weak 2♦ before the Benji player can get an agreement on their card. Given how you always describe Norfolk as a backwater of unbelievably old-fashioned bridge, it amazes me that every pair has moved across to 3 Weaks or a Strong Club systems.

[Cyberyeti]

 Gilithin, on 2023-August-19, 15:59, said:

My experience of the BBO Acol Club has been that there are at least as many that play Benji by choice as 3 Weaks, with a small scattering still preferring Strong 2s. 3 Weaks tends to be more common in pick-up partnerships as the 3 Weak partner tends to get in with a Weak 2♦ before the Benji player can get an agreement on their card. Given how you always describe Norfolk as a backwater of unbelievably old-fashioned bridge, it amazes me that every pair has moved across to 3 Weaks or a Strong Club systems.

Strong club is not common (and strong diamond as common as strong club), 3 weaks/multi probably comprise what 80%+ of Acol people play (is multi legal in BBO acol club ?).

[thepossum]

 mikeh, on 2023-August-19, 13:48, said:

I’m willing to bet that I wouldn’t agree with your constraints for opener’s hands. Posting simulation results without posting the constraints you used isn’t just useless: it may be actively misleading.

Secondly, I’m willing to bet that you didn’t look at whether 4H would get doubled by your LHO sitting on a heart stack. Whether at mps or, often more significantly, imps, the prospect of going for 300 or 500 in 4H should tilt the odds in favour of passing. Now, it’s possible that LHO can usefully double 3N but we have just enough diamonds to reduce that risk….had we a stiff, LHO might be (and I suppose still might be) looking at something like J109xx, knowing that opener is gambling on running his suit. But the odds of a bad heart break, when partner hasn’t indicated any length there, must be greater than that diamonds are really foul. That’s one area where a sim might have value.

Simulations have their uses, provided that the constraints are reasonable and one can overcome the double dummy bias that infects pretty much every analysis based on simulations and double dummy thinking. Otherwise they are just another rabbit hole down which too many players go in lieu of learning to play bridge by developing judgment.

Hi Mike
Just wasted 4 hours trying to think how to respond but running out of time. Deleted several drafts already. I literally have no time

Will get back to you. Complicated

I'm not ignoring and you and giving the respect of wanting to respond. All the details are in a file but I feel like I am in a courtroom

I don't want to unnecessarily distract the group or discussion either. Hope everyone understands. Risky strategy though

For some of us and some posts and some situations and some people there is no safe action. Not everyone would understand that either. Its like an infinite process and still ongoing. So hopefully I do not have to enter this thread again

But I have an answer to the first phrase. I am sure you may choose different parameters for your sim than I did for mine. Why me??
EDIT But in further response I think it is a waste of my time because it takes all day to even get a few hands - I am sensitive to Mike's constraints and almost all the hands that make either game in my original sim would be excluded. I honestly don't think my original sim was worth the attention Mike gave to it. Sorry I don't have the time. I don't have to justify some arbitrary sim to anyone and risk unnecessary further argument over anything and to play petty power and ego games. But I stand by my results from my parameters in my original sim - all of which would be excluded Do you know how many unnecessary hours of stress and anxiety feeling I need to respond at all already. Please be a bit more considerate asking stuff like that. I could easily write you an in depth report on different simulations using various parameters discussed above But why waste all our time on such petty irreevances. Regard all that wasted time and stress as respect. And in all seriousness I made a casual relaxed social contribution to a hobby forum and have huge serious stuff to deal with in my life. Sorry. You take your profession very serkiously and so do I so challenging me in such a way was rather unfair

[Gilithin]

 Cyberyeti, on 2023-August-20, 03:38, said:

Strong club is not common (and strong diamond as common as strong club), 3 weaks/multi probably comprise what 80%+ of Acol people play (is multi legal in BBO acol club ?).

The only special rule in the BBO Acol Club is that you should ask your opponents for permission if you want to play a non-Acol system. In reality, I can only think of 2 regular pairs that did this, both using Strong Club systems. Beyond this, rules are made by the players at the table. Multi is unusual mainly because most pairs are pick-ups - in the default version, this hand would qualify for it though. I cannot remember seeing a Mini-Multi in over 20 years unless it was bid by me (or my partner). One thing I will say is that things are gradually changing. 20 years ago Benji (or Reverse) was the default 2 bid structure; now the profiles are roughly equally split with the default being 2 Weaks. You might compliment your Norfolk club on how far ahead of the curve they are regarding bidding theory!