[pescetom]

This board is not rocket science, but was not automatic for our intermediates at least.

MP

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South who interfered 2♠ during the auction now leads ♠K.
The Ace in dummy is probably more that you deserve, but those hearts are awful and you wonder if it was not better to seek game in a minor.
But this is no time to think about that, you are in 3NT. What is your plan (and might it be different at IMPs)?

[apollo1201]

I think you’d have to play the same at MPs and IMPs. As it is not sure everyone is at 3NT so making it should reach a good result. Even when 10 tricks were available.

So…CQ can drop, can be finessed, the CT can even be buffaloed!

We can duck, seeing them cash H tricks would be a dream, but I doubt it. Running D or seeing them break 5-1 could give a hint on how to play the C suit. Depending also on who shows which honors. Although we know S has almost all of them. And probably 5 or 6 S only.

In desperation and not learning anything useful, I’ll bang KJ on the table, out field for out field, at least if it works it is spectacular. It also leaves open the finesses against the 10 should I drop a sg Q, against trustable opponents, for the beauté du geste.

[pescetom]

apollo1201, on 2023-June-30, 11:36, said:

So…CQ can drop, can be finessed, the CT can even be buffaloed!

Google "bridge game to buffalo" gives the Peace Bridge or Buffalo Bridge Center
My apologies if it is a standard term or obvious, could you please elaborate?

[smerriman]

Seems like it's the French term for a 'pin' - see first few comments here: https://bridgewinner...r-this-finesse/

[pescetom]

smerriman, on 2023-June-30, 14:55, said:

Seems like it's the French term for a 'pin' - see first few comments here: https://bridgewinner...r-this-finesse/

Thanks!
'Backward finesse' is closer to the Italian equivalent.

[apollo1201]

Ooops sorry. I was told the name does come from Buffalo, NY, where it was executed (like the Vienna coup or the Oslo finesse). But it is probably French legend 🤣🤣🤣

But yes, the idea is to start with a « middle » honor to force the higher honor of the opps, while pinning at the same time the lower one.

[pescetom]

Thanks to those who commented. I was hoping for thoughts from more members on this one and in particular how to tackle the clubs, although apollo1201 had a lot of it nailed.

On the actual auction (I suspect many South kept quiet) I was surprised nobody opined for laying down AK, unless the discards say clearly different. Not sure what simulations would say, but KJ was right on the actual layout:

MP

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[johnu]

pescetom, on 2023-July-04, 15:04, said:

Thanks to those who commented. I was hoping for thoughts from more members on this one and in particular how to tackle the clubs, although apollo1201 had a lot of it nailed.

On the actual auction (I suspect many South kept quiet) I was surprised nobody opined for laying down AK, unless the discards say clearly different. Not sure what simulations would say, but KJ was right on the actual layout:

Complicated hand to read for adjusted percentages. I will note that playing ♣A then ♣K (picking up 5-0 split) only picks up Qx in North, and xxx in South, which is 40% of that 3-2 split, while finessing the jack picks up 60%, plus 4-1 breaks. South has overcalled with only KQ of spades with 5+, some heart honors, and maybe ♣Q. North probably has 3,or maybe 4 spades, likely 1 or even 2 heart honors, and with ♣Q may or may not have scraped up a spade raise. Who is more likely to have ♣Q? Enough to make a backwards finesse the percentage play? I think no.

[pescetom]

johnu, on 2023-July-04, 16:58, said:

Complicated hand to read for adjusted percentages. I will note that playing ♣A then ♣K (picking up 5-0 split) only picks up Qx in North, and xxx in South, which is 40% of that 3-2 split, while finessing the jack picks up 60%, plus 4-1 breaks. South has overcalled with only KQ of spades with 5+, some heart honors, and maybe ♣Q. North probably has 3,or maybe 4 spades, likely 1 or even 2 heart honors, and with ♣Q may or may not have scraped up a spade raise. Who is more likely to have ♣Q? Enough to make a backwards finesse the percentage play? I think no.

I don't think so either. But at MP the idea of limiting potential losses to 1 undertrick has some appeal, if the percentages are not hopelessly inferior.

[mikeh]

Late to the thread, but the notion of running the Jack of clubs seems, to me, very silly


Imo, there are three requirements, not all need be present, before one considers this play

One: the bidding early play strongly suggests that the queen lies over the jack. Don’t see that here, but otoh I don’t see a 2S bid either and I definitely don’t see north passing…with 4 card support and an ace!

Second: the bidding or early play suggests that the hand with the queen, over the Jack, likely has longer clubs than his partner has. I definitely don’t see that here…indeed, against most players, I’d fairly confidently place spades as 6=3, hence the odds slightly favour RHO having the club length.

Third: I want to finesse, even anti-percentage, into a safe hand. I suppose it’s possible that spades are 7=2, but now I’m playing overcaller not to have the heart ace…but I suspect I’d know from the trick one and two plays that spades are unlikely to be 7=2.

There’s a reason one rarely sees this play in real life, especially in top competition. The right circumstances rarely arise. And, mo, they’re not even close here.

Btw, I have made this play once….I was lucky enough to fill in on a team where I got to play the second half of each regional KO with Grant Baze…..it worked, but LHO had openeD and we’d reached game with about 27 hcp so I ‘knew’ opener held the queen and I also ‘knew’, by that stage, that RHO couldn’t hurt me.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen it at the table apart from that one time.

[Evies Dad]

Finding South with only 2 diamonds doesn't help shift the odds.
Souths 3rd discard may help you - he doesn't know partner has AH.

But without anything coming to light, A then towards KJ must be the best expected outcome.

[johnu]

mikeh, on 2023-July-05, 12:27, said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen it at the table apart from that one time.

I've seen that play at least once or twice on BBO. This was reviewing hands during the time that BBO allowed self-kibitzing, there was no bridge reason to make those plays, and the person making the play was cheating in every other conceivable other way.

Not saying that the bidding and previous play can't indicate that this is the percentage play, but randomly making a backwards finesse based on no info would raise eyebrows for me.

[johnu]

Evies Dad, on 2023-July-05, 13:01, said:

Finding South with only 2 diamonds doesn't help shift the odds.

Right, the fact that South should have 5+ spades and 2 diamonds, and North <= 4 spades and 4 diamonds, moves the odds of club splits closer to a priori.

[naskippy]

You have 8 tricks off the top after winning the Ace of Spades. Your only hope for your 9th trick is in clubs. However the Queen lies in the North hand and I am going to be wrong and go down a bunch after stripping the hand. You have to be psychic to know the Queen of Clubs is in the North hand. I bet you get some company in going down.