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In need of confidence boost

#1 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2021-December-19, 04:11

Apologies to cyberyeti and anyone else who had already replied I was going to reframe

Trying to remember what I wrote. I had been doing better in MPs recently and occasionally try a slightly unusual bid, rather than the obvious to give an edge

Here is the hand which miraculously made 5H 100% for one other person. Sadly I made closer to the double dummy score (minus 2)

The obvious bid was 5C but I decided on 5H



I am curious whether it was a reasonable MP play, and how it should be played.

What I find interesting is that the player that made it played a very similar line, differing only on trick 3. And how hearts were played
But the only way to make depends on East's defence and how it plays trumps

etc

Sorry I lost my original post and what I wrote

Goodnight
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#2 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-December-19, 04:20

4N is also vaguely plausible as 2 places to play at which point partner bids 5♣, although I'd bid 5♣.

You also didn't give yourself the best chance, many people don't give count in trumps (don't know about bots). Try playing a second round of trumps after the K. E will most likely think you have 4 hearts on the auction, so why would he duck which is what's required to beat the contract.
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#3 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2021-December-19, 06:01

Hi sorry

Will repost. Curious not behaviour and I want to reframe 🙂

It's got a few issues. Tomorrow 🙂
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#4 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2021-December-19, 14:01

View PostCyberyeti, on 2021-December-19, 04:20, said:

4N is also vaguely plausible as 2 places to play at which point partner bids 5♣, although I'd bid 5♣.

You also didn't give yourself the best chance, many people don't give count in trumps (don't know about bots). Try playing a second round of trumps after the K. E will most likely think you have 4 hearts on the auction, so why would he duck which is what's required to beat the contract.


Thx Cyberyeti

Yes, I was curious how East played differently between my play and the 100% :)

Also if there was a trick or it related to genuine best play :)

I played my King on trick 3 and East ducked. the 100% played low to the QJ and East took with the Ace

All I think the hand really shows is to play the percentage game. But it can be fun to have more variance from time to time. One that got away :(

Curious statistical observation. My average doesn't seem to change much whatever I do :)
On a serious statistical note though. Maybe someone like Richard can advise. Does anyone even have an estimate how many hands and different types of tourneys and opponents I need to make any useful statistical inference at all

EDIT Apologies, in the mess around I posted the wrong hand (the 100%). I posted mine which was the original.

EDIT 2. Given that sadly this thread is already untidy I may start another one to ask about strategy for improving. I try to concentrate on hands that wen wrong - bidding or play - in order to increase my average. But they often, are hands like this, that could easily have worked. And if I try to exclude hands like this my average may drop
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