[jillybean]

---

E/W are playing 2/1 1430 2C was gf

Your lead?

[Winstonm]

It looks like things are sitting well for them, but I still see no reason to do anything other than lead the spade K (or Q, if conventional).

[jillybean]

---

♠K seems obvious, even if South doubles 5♥ keycard response for a lead, how do you set this?

Ah, I think I see ♥ lead and ♣ back

[Cyberyeti]

jillybean, on 2021-June-23, 14:00, said:

♠K seems obvious, even if South doubles 5♥ keycard response for a lead, how do you set this?

Ah, I think I see ♥ lead and ♣ back

Nope, what can declarer do if you lead a high spade ?

If he takes a spade discard on the clubs, the club suit is dead because of the trump break, the best he can do is take the spade discard and lead a heart, S ducks (or wins the A and switches to a club) and what can W do ? Alternatively he draws trumps, cashes 3 clubs pitching a spade and a heart and providing S ducks when he plays a heart, he has 2 further heart losers

[Winstonm]

There is supposedly a saying in medical school: if you hear hoof beats don’t think of zebras

[pilowsky]

Winstonm, on 2021-June-23, 19:52, said:

There is supposedly a saying in medical school: if you hear hoof beats don't think of zebras

There's another saying - common things occur commonly but the "typical presentation" only accounts for 10% of cases.

[Winstonm]

pilowsky, on 2021-June-24, 03:48, said:

There's another saying - common things occur commonly but the "typical presentation" only accounts for 10% of cases.

Have you found either saying to be reasonably valid? As to the second, did you find that "typical presentation" was gender-affected?

[pilowsky]

Winstonm, on 2021-June-24, 07:52, said:

Have you found either saying to be reasonably valid? As to the second, did you find that "typical presentation" was gender-affected?

Both sayings have validity.
The point of the zebra saying is that you shouldn't always think of phaeochromocytoma first when someone has high blood pressure - it's much more likely that they just read something annoying on the Forum.
I once arrived at LAX. When the morbidly laconic security person asked me why I was here I replied "a conference".
Security: "What about?"
Me: "High blood pressure."
Security: [after a really long pause] You know what causes high blood pressure?
Me: [keeping quiet and waiting]
Security: "Stress".

The comment about "typical presentations" is more useful.
Only about 10% of cases exactly fit the description in the textbooks.
Not everyone with gallstones is "fair fat female forty and female". Many don't even have the typical cluster of symptoms and signs.

I suppose this is Bayes theorem in action.
You see many examples of this dichotomy in life (and Bridge) - where it's called "Judgement".