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B. If West has 4 ♠, then the recommended finesse of ♠9- Wins when RHO has has a small singleton (3 X 2.8%).- Loses when RHO has a singleton honour (2 X 2.8%).
B. If West has 4 ♠, then the recommended finesse of ♠9- Wins when RHO has has a small singleton (3 X 2.8%).- Loses when RHO has a singleton honour (2 X 2.8%).
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C. If ♠ are 3-2, then the contract succeeds most of the time
but the recommended line also- Loses when East has a ♠ honour and
- 6 ♦s. (Is that 3.5%? or is it 1/6 that? i.e. is the ♦ pip significant) or
- West can ruff something else.
C. If ♠ are 3-2, then the contract succeeds most of the time
but the recommended line also- Loses when East has a ♠ honour and
- 6 ♦s. (Is that 3.5%? or is it 1/6 that? i.e. is the ♦ pip significant) or
- West can ruff something else.
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D. Again, if If ♠ are 3-2, then the contract fails if East has a trump honour, South risks playing for a trump coup, and East can ruff a plain-suit that Declarer chooses to play.
D. Again, if If ♠ are 3-2, then the contract fails if East has a trump honour, South risks playing for a trump coup, and East can ruff a plain-suit that Declarer chooses to play.
Please help with the statistics but I feel that the recommendation is wrong. A. If East has 4♠, then he can return his ♣. Now, on this layout, declarer can succeed only by risking 3 rounds of a red suit to coup East's trumps. Declarer would have an easier time had he won dummy's ♠K and advanced ♠9. covered by ♠J and ♠A. Now, - If ♠s are 3-2, then declarer can claim but - if East shows out, then he can succeed, here, by cashing ♥KA, ruffing a ♥, crossing to ♣A, ruffing another ♥, then North's ♦KQJ coup East's trumps.