[y66]

shyams, on 2020-April-05, 13:08, said:

In stark contrast, the growth in new positive cases in the UK has been 10%-15% every day for the last 3-4 days. This is despite the lock-down having begun over a week ago. Disheartening.

Italy locked down on March 9th. When did the UK lockdown?

If my calculations are right, UK's average daily % increase (average of last 5 days) was 13.7% as of yesterday per Johns Hopkins data at https://github.com/C...19_time_series.

If the UK growth rate is roughly comparable to Italy's -- and why wouldn't it be -- I think that means you are where Italy was on March 20th growth-rate-wise so two weeks away from getting to 4% which is where Italy was yesterday per Johns Hopkins data.

The US is at 13.8% so we are in the same boat.

Obviously a gazillion caveats apply.

[FelicityR]

y66, on 2020-April-05, 19:58, said:

Obviously a gazillion caveats apply.

Yes, I agree, there are so many different angles to explore in respect of exponential growth and when the UK figures finally 'flatten the curve'.

I don't believe for one minute that the UK would have put in a contingency of building field hospitals or requisitioning private hospitals if they didn't think that there would be far more critical cases. I cannot tell you how many 'new' critical care hospitals are in this contingency, but every day in the UK news it appears that other towns and cities beyond London (4000 beds) are gearing themselves ready for increased numbers.

The UK figures do not include people such as the elderly in care and nursing homes who have died but have not been tested. They are part of the statistics, too. It is truly ironic that the people who care for these people are actually spreading the disease because testing in the UK has been so lax. Then there are probably other vulnerable people in the community who get visited for shopping, cleaning, etc, and have died as a result of covid-19.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if our nation's final tally, if everyone was taken into consideration, will be nearly as bad as Italy's. And even if it isn't, too many people have died as a result of not taking preventative measures earlier.

[pescetom]

shyams, on 2020-April-05, 13:08, said:

In stark contrast, the growth in new positive cases in the UK has been 10%-15% every day for the last 3-4 days. This is despite the lock-down having begun over a week ago. Disheartening.

There is (fortunately) a time difference between the two lockdowns.
During the (almost entire) first week of real lockdown in Italy growth in reported positives remained steady at around 15%, then it suddenly dropped to 7%, then suddenly to the current 3%.
So these are real discrete changes in the advance of contagion even if the actual numbers of positives are hopelessly under-reported everywhere.
There is also a statistical difference however, my numbers are growth in total reported positives not in new reported positives.

[pescetom]

FelicityR, on 2020-April-06, 02:44, said:

The UK figures do not include people such as the elderly in care and nursing homes who have died but have not been tested. They are part of the statistics, too.

This is a major part of the under-reporting of covid19 deaths (by a factor of between 2 and 4 according to local data sources) in Italy too.
I suspect that factor is considerably higher in many other countries.
I suggest that those interested in discovering the real death toll of this pandemic locate and save national/local statistics on death from all causes for recent years and for previous months of March/April if available.

[y66]

From Bloomberg:

Quote

Apple is designing face shields for medical workers, Tim Cook said Sunday. The first shipment was delivered to a Santa Clara, California, hospital last week. The shields are fully adjustable and assemble in under two minutes, he said, adding that Apple plans to ship over a million this week and another million weekly after that.

Meanwhile, an Apple supplier, Flex, is starting to assemble thousands of ventilators. The San Jose, California-based company will be churning out 25,000 to 30,000 ventilators a month by May or June, according to John Carlson, Flex’s head of medical solutions. That’s equal to the industry’s typical annual output, but as many as 1 million of these machines are needed now, he said in an interview Friday.

[Winstonm]

An article that questions seriously the efficacy of the use of hydroxychloroquine touted by a French physician.

Quote

Translation: “So according to the statistics: 80% benign forms, therefore 800 treatments for nothing + 20% of patients treated with a drug without any evidence, or around 200 that you exposed to a risk. So 100% uselessness and trampling medicine. Well done! #Covid_19”

[Fluffy]

Wooohooo, Spain gets first position on deaths/habitand and infected/habitant, take that Italy!

[FelicityR]

Winstonm, on 2020-April-06, 09:29, said:

An article that questions seriously the efficacy of the use of hydroxychloroquine touted by a French physician.

As much as I agree with this, and in an earlier post I said that only 37% of doctors from various countries who had treated covid-19 patients agree that hydroxychloroquine has any beneficial effect in treating coronavirus and it's hardly 'a shining endorsement', I believe you have to look beyond that.

In essence the medical profession is clutching at straws to treat covid-19 cases because there were no medical protocols or list of medications available to treat covid-19 as this is a new illness.

And whilst SARS, MERS, and covid-19 are similar, it would seem sensible to use drugs to treat SARS and MERS as the first line of defence against covid-19, but it is not as simple as that.

There are so many other factors to take into consideration before administering any medication, and what may be suitable for one person may not be suitable for another. One factor in hydroxychloroquine's favour is that it has been around for 50 years, and whilst like every other drug it does have side effects, most of the side effects are mild. The problems usually occur when you use two or more drugs in tandem.

[Winstonm]

FelicityR, on 2020-April-06, 10:13, said:

As much as I agree with this, and in an earlier post I said that only 37% of doctors from various countries who had treated covid-19 patients agree that hydroxychloroquine has any beneficial effect in treating coronavirus and it's hardly 'a shining endorsement', I believe you have to look beyond that.

In essence the medical profession is clutching at straws to treat covid-19 cases because there were no medical protocols or list of medications available to treat covid-19 as this is a new illness.

And whilst SARS, MERS, and covid-19 are similar, it would seem sensible to use drugs to treat SARS and MERS as the first line of defence against covid-19, but it is not as simple as that.

There are so many other factors to take into consideration before administering any medication, and what may be suitable for one person may not be suitable for another. One factor in hydroxychloroquine's favour is that it has been around for 50 years, and whilst like every other drug it does have side effects, most of the side effects are mild. The problems usually occur when you use two or more drugs in tandem.

My biggest concern right now is for scams and these loose and not-very-scientific validations of results reminds me so much of the handful of "scientists" who offered opposing research about the dangers of tobacco, the ozone layer, acid rain, and finally climate change. Grand disasters are huge opportunities for grifters and the like. It appears these studies are designed more to promote than treat, and that is a problem.

[kenberg]

FelicityR, on 2020-April-06, 10:13, said:

As much as I agree with this, and in an earlier post I said that only 37% of doctors from various countries who had treated covid-19 patients agree that hydroxychloroquine has any beneficial effect in treating coronavirus and it's hardly 'a shining endorsement', I believe you have to look beyond that.

In essence the medical profession is clutching at straws to treat covid-19 cases because there were no medical protocols or list of medications available to treat covid-19 as this is a new illness.

And whilst SARS, MERS, and covid-19 are similar, it would seem sensible to use drugs to treat SARS and MERS as the first line of defence against covid-19, but it is not as simple as that.

There are so many other factors to take into consideration before administering any medication, and what may be suitable for one person may not be suitable for another. One factor in hydroxychloroquine's favour is that it has been around for 50 years, and whilst like every other drug it does have side effects, most of the side effects are mild. The problems usually occur when you use two or more drugs in tandem.

Perhaps the way I would phrase my agreement: Certainty is not available.

I said earlier that I will not be taking that drug. But maybe, under some circumstances, I would, if it were available. While the experts hash this out I will try hard not to need it.

At a more basic level, over on this side of the Atlantic, I just wish our president would shut up. I seriously doubt he understands the possible pluses and minuses any better than I do, all he is doing with his mouth is making it political. When our president has nothing useful to say, I wish he would shut up. Of course then he would never speak. Fine by me.

The man had no idea what he was talking about with testing, or masks, or ventilators, now he wants to pose as an expert on a drug of uncertain usefulness. Oh my.

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 93187 (+2%), dead 16523 (+4%), no longer infected 22837 (+5%). Intensive care 3977 (-2%). Fatality rate 15.1%.
So maybe another slight improvement (will see) and a first real drop in the number under intensive care.
New intensive and semi-intensive care facilities are also being rolled out at an impressive rate in Lombardy.
But much of the general public has not even received masks yet, despite promised huge production levels and also deliveries from China.

[y66]

Yuval Harari in interview with Linda Lew at South China Morning Post:

Quote

Lew: You wrote “if we are indeed bringing famine, plague and war under control …” in Homo Deus. Given that the spread of the coronavirus pandemic continues unabated, do you still believe mankind has largely reined in plagues?

Harari: We obviously cannot prevent the appearance of new infectious diseases. Pathogens constantly jump from animals to humans, or undergo mutations that make them more contagious and deadly than before. However, we do have the power to rein in plagues, and prevent them from killing millions and from destroying the economy.

We should compare our situation today to that in previous eras. When plagues spread in the pre-modern era, humans usually had no idea what caused them, and what could be done to stop them. They usually blamed the plague on angry gods or black magic, and the best thing they could think of doing was hold mass prayers to the gods – which often led to mass infections. When in the 14th century the Black Death killed more than a quarter of all people in Asia and Europe, humans never discovered what caused it. When in the 16th century smallpox and other epidemics killed up to 90 per cent of the native populations of America, the Aztecs, Maya and Inca had no clue why they were dying in their millions.

In contrast, when the coronavirus epidemic began, it took scientists just two weeks to identify the novel virus, sequence its genome and develop a reliable test to identify infected people. Doctors are winning the arms race with pathogens, because pathogens rely on blind mutations, while doctors rely on information. Countries can send information, experts and equipment to help one another contain the plague. Governments and banks can work out a common plan to prevent economic collapse.

However, there is one big caveat. The fact that humanity has the power to rein in plagues, does not mean it always has the wisdom to use that power well. In 2015 I wrote in Homo Deus that “while we cannot be certain that some new Ebola outbreak or an unknown flu strain won’t sweep across the globe and kill millions, we will not regard it as an inevitable natural calamity. Rather, we will see it as an inexcusable human failure and demand the heads of those responsible. … humankind has the knowledge and tools to prevent plagues, and if an epidemic nevertheless gets out of control, it is due to human incompetence rather than divine anger.”

I think these words still hold true today. What we are seeing around the world now is not an inevitable natural disaster. It is a human failure. Irresponsible governments neglected their health care systems, failed to react on time, and are at present still failing to cooperate effectively on a global level. We have the power to stop this, but so far we lack the necessary wisdom.

[FelicityR]

Leaving party politics aside for one moment, I sincerely hope - and I am sure all BBO members will agree, too - that our Prime Minster Boris Johnson recovers swiftly from his illness and once again leads our ravaged country through this epidemic. I have a feeling that his own deeply personal experience of this crisis will augur well for future generations.

'Ravaged' does not seem too strong a word to use as there are going to be many despairing people after this crisis. People who have lost loved ones, people who have seen their lives changed forever; people who have seen their dreams and aspirations shattered; people who have slipped deeper in debt; people who have seen their businesses go under, businesses that might have taken many years to establish. This pandemic has touched us all on some level.

[hrothgar]

FelicityR, on 2020-April-06, 22:19, said:

Leaving party politics aside for one moment, I sincerely hope - and I am sure all BBO members will agree, too - that our Prime Minster Boris Johnson recovers swiftly from his illness and once again leads our ravaged country through this epidemic.

Only because Dominic Raab is so very much worse

[FelicityR]

hrothgar, on 2020-April-07, 03:40, said:

Only because Dominic Raab is so very much worse

Yes, in total agreement with you there, Hrothgar.

Just as an aside from comments on covid-19, I found this extract from Boris Johnson's Wikipedia entry (that I was reading this morning) when he was London mayor.

In 2015, Johnson criticised then-presidential candidate Donald Trump's false comments that there were no-go zones in London governed by shariah and inaccessible for non-Muslims. Johnson said that Trump was "betraying a quite stupefying ignorance that makes him, frankly, unfit to hold the office of president of the United States", becoming the first senior politician in the UK to declare Trump unfit for office (but rejecting calls for him to be banned from the country). Johnson also added that he "would invite [Trump] to come and see the whole of London and take him round the city – except I wouldn't want to expose Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump." He later called Trump's comments "ill informed" and "complete and utter nonsense", adding that "the only reason I wouldn't go to some parts of New York is the real risk of meeting Donald Trump". In 2016, he said he was "genuinely worried that he could become president", telling ITV's Tom Bradby of one moment where he was mistaken for Trump in New York as "one of the worst moments" of his life.

How times change...

[kenberg]

FelicityR, on 2020-April-06, 22:19, said:

Leaving party politics aside for one moment, I sincerely hope - and I am sure all BBO members will agree, too - that our Prime Minster Boris Johnson recovers swiftly from his illness and once again leads our ravaged country through this epidemic. I have a feeling that his own deeply personal experience of this crisis will augur well for future generations.

'Ravaged' does not seem too strong a word to use as there are going to be many despairing people after this crisis. People who have lost loved ones, people who have seen their lives changed forever; people who have seen their dreams and aspirations shattered; people who have slipped deeper in debt; people who have seen their businesses go under, businesses that might have taken many years to establish. This pandemic has touched us all on some level.

Without expressing any view on who should or shouldn't be your PM, yes, I hope he makes it through this. My same wish for everyone. We have to keep our politics from eating away at us. In the same vein, my first thought when I heard the Queen say "We will meet again" was that I hoped Vera Lynn heard the speech. She had. We can all use a bit of "Will you please say hello to the folks that I know, tell them I won't be long".

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 94067 (+1%), dead 17127 (+4%), no longer infected 24392 (+7%). Intensive care 3792 (-5%). Fatality rate 15.3%.
So yet another slight improvement and real drop in the number under intensive care.
New intensive care facilities are being rolled out not just in the north but in the south (where they were chronically short even before the pandemic), so time has been bought here.
The real emergency right now is (ludicrously) in basic low-cost measures such as positive testing and masks, even for medics. In Lombardy it is illegal to leave your home without a mask but not everybody has one, even an ineffective PF1 model in cotton.

[y66]

New Zealand isn’t just flattening the curve. It’s squashing it. by Anna Fifield at WaPo

[y66]

Clive Cookson and Michael Peel at FT: EU science chief resigns with blast at coronavirus response

[FelicityR]

y66, on 2020-April-07, 16:19, said:

New Zealand isn’t just flattening the curve. It’s squashing it. by Anna Fifield at WaPo

The statistics for New Zealand are not comparable to the UK, Italy or Spain. It's a completely separate country divided into two islands, which will help slow the spread. Yes, I agree (as I read this also on another forum post) that New Zealand did act swiftly with regard to coronavirus, but that does not tell the whole story.

Approximately, NZ is 103,500 square miles, with a population of 4.7 million and just 10 towns/cities over 125,000 residents. UK is 93,500 square miles, with a population of nearly 68 million, and has over 150 towns and cities over 125,000 residents. Obviously it would be a lot more difficult to contain a contagion where people are living in closer proximity.