[Dinarius]

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IMPS

North leads ♣3

Almost certainly a singleton.

Presumably, two lines...

1. Win on the table and run ♥J. I assume that this is 50%. This loses only when North has ♥K and South has an entry in ♠ or ♦. You lose 4 tricks.

2. Win ♣ and play Ace and another ♥. Assuming that N has ♠A for his bid, this wins in all situations except where N, has the third ♥ and S has ♥K,x.

Unless I'm missing something they are the only lines.

Is 2. better or worse than 50%?

Thanks.

D.

[FelicityR]

The only assumption I would make is that South is more likely to have ♥K if North has led a singleton ♣ looking for a ruff.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that North has ♥Kx or Kxx and is expecting ♥s to be finesse-able the other way as East has bid the suit but I would bet against it.

[Tramticket]

FelicityR, on 2019-October-31, 04:00, said:

The only assumption I would make is that South is more likely to have ♥K if North has led a singleton ♣ looking for a ruff.

North may not have an attractive lead, even if not particularly wanting a ruff - (say) ♠A108742 ♥K2 ♦AQ74 ♣3 might lead the singleton anyway.

Do you know whether North had a natural 2♠ over-call available over 1NT? This delayed over-call may be flawed in some way - maybe North doesn't have the ♠A?

[Dinarius]

I took the view of vacant places. So, with a 3/2 ❤️ split, N is marginally more likely to hold only 2 hearts and S 3.

Therefore, if N has ♠️A, I can guarantee 10 tricks by ❤️A and another, which is what I played. I would only lose ❤️K, ♠️A, ♦️A.

Is this better than the 50% finesse?

Anyway, I was wrong. N had the third ❤️ and I lost 4 tricks. Declarer at the other table won ♣️ lead on table and ran ❤️J making 11 tricks. He said he wanted to protect his ♦️K and took the finesse. I don’t think ♦️K is relevant to analysis.

Interesting hand.


D.

[KingCovert]

Dinarius, on 2019-October-31, 06:54, said:

I took the view of vacant places. So, with a 3/2 ❤️ split, N is marginally more likely to hold only 2 hearts and S 3.

Therefore, if N has ♠️A, I can guarantee 10 tricks by ❤️A and another, which is what I played. I would only lose ❤️K, ♠️A, ♦️A.

Is this better than the 50% finesse?

Anyway, I was wrong. N had the third ❤️ and I lost 4 tricks. Declarer at the other table won ♣️ lead on table and ran ❤️J making 11 tricks. He said he wanted to protect his ♦️K and took the finesse. I don’t think ♦️K is relevant to analysis.

Interesting hand.


D.

Here were my thoughts:

1) After looking at dummy, what is South holding?
2) If the singleton club is led, then, 3 clubs.
3) They didn't bid 4♠, so, I don't think spades are breaking 5-4. 2 spades? Would they sit for 4♥ with 3 spades?
4) If south only has 2 spades, then North has a stack, why only call 2♠?
5) So, 3 clubs, 2-3 spades, That leaves 7-8 cards in hearts and diamonds.

I think if you properly consider these points, you'd risk losing the finesse to North, who can't give themselves a ruff. Sometimes North will hold A♠, K♥, and A♦. Especially at matchpoints where there is play for 11 tricks when the finesse works. I think the odds that South doesn't have either Ace is high enough to risk this. I mean, either North is bidding 2♠ on like 7 spades, or South was too scared to call 4♠ on their 3-4 card spade suit. Certainly suggests either way that North is holding the aces, and that South is holding the potentially useless K♥, in my mind at least.

[GrahamJson]

Taking the finesse gains when S holds Kx in hearts, playing ace and another gains when north has Kx. In all other cases it doesn’t make any difference. My inclination would be to take the finesse as north is more likely to lead a singleton when holding three small trumps than Kx. Also a successful finesse gives you an overtrick, which may be worth something, especially at MP.

[AL78]

GrahamJson, on 2019-November-01, 02:34, said:

Taking the finesse gains when S holds Kx in hearts, playing ace and another gains when north has Kx. In all other cases it doesn’t make any difference. My inclination would be to take the finesse as north is more likely to lead a singleton when holding three small trumps than Kx. Also a successful finesse gives you an overtrick, which may be worth something, especially at MP.

It isn't MPs, it is IMPS.

[mikeh]

I have to admit that I can't recall having this sequence before. North is acting very, very strangely. Having given east a chance to show 5 hearts, he comes in with 2S.

Imagine that you are east with a good hand, 5 hearts, and some defence to spades. Had North bid 2S, you'd be in a quandary. If partner fits hearts, you probably don't want to defend at the 2-level, yet if partner doesn't fit hearts, you do. So you have to guess, and in all likelihood, on most hands, you'd bid...after all, if you can't make 4H maybe 3N comes home.

Now, with such a hand you have the world's easiest double. Partner knows you lack 4 spades, assuming you have smolen or other gadgets available, and also knows you have 5 hearts and defence.

So this sort of sequence should arise infrequently. If I were North, and perpetrated this and then led my stiff club, I'd hold something like Qxxxxxx xx AQx x.

With Qxxxxxx Kx AQx x, I'd bid over 1N. So really, it comes down to whether bidding 2S appears to be more likely, on the auction, with Kx of hearts and no diamond Ace, or vice versa. I think vice versa makes more sense.

So I win in dummy and advance the Jack of hearts. If it loses to the King and back comes a small spade....I have to decide whether to play to make or risk down 2: the only way to make is to hop the King and hope north has an impossible hand....both pointed aces and the heart K.

[bilalz]

Mostly agree with what the others said but I must say at your play was not that bad either OP, and I can't claim that I would never make the same play myself in this sequence (strange as it is). A lot of it would depend on the table feel, and if I know about the bidding habits etc. of both N and S, how I was playing that day, AND which one of N and S I like more

Interesting hand though. cheers