[pescetom]

MPs.

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Your partner is dealer and opens a weak 2♠. At this vulnerability his weak twos are still quite disciplined (six card, 5-10 HCP, no major side suit) except for honours where almost anything goes (but Ogust will expose 1/2/3 top honours as well as HCP range). RHO doubles, presumably for takeout. What is your call now? Please answer in poll and explain/comment here if appropriate.

[Cyberyeti]

Prosaic bid is 4♠, I have sympathy for 5♠ to push opps into a decision or 4♣ ostensibly a fit jump to get what is VERY likely to be the best lead against a heart contract. 3♥ may work v bad opps.

[Tramticket]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-October-24, 05:35, said:

3♥ may work v bad opps.

They would have to be VERY naive. 4NT is unlikely to fool anyone ... 3NT might have more chance ...

But, I suspect that a simple 4♠ might give them a difficult decision whether to look for a slam (a slam looks very likely opposite some of MY partner's preempts!).

[pescetom]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-October-24, 05:35, said:

Prosaic bid is 4♠, I have sympathy for 5♠ to push opps into a decision or 4♣ ostensibly a fit jump to get what is VERY likely to be the best lead against a heart contract. 3♥ may work v bad opps.

Opps are unknown but clearly not bad, sorry should have mentioned that.
A 4♣ fit jump would be understood, although it does have the limit of offering LHO a free opportunity to confirm hearts.

[DozyDom]

If our suit were hearts, I'd like 3NT. As it is, I think it's a naive bid. It isn't going to stop them bidding to 4H; 4S will always stop them bidding to 4H, and can stop them from bidding to 5H. I think any other choice is a bit silly.

[Cyberyeti]

pescetom, on 2019-October-24, 06:07, said:

Opps are unknown but clearly not bad, sorry should have mentioned that.
A 4♣ fit jump would be understood, although it does have the limit of offering LHO a free opportunity to confirm hearts.

I offer it because if I make that bid I expect to take more tricks off 4/5/6♥ at MPs, it's not difficult to visualise something like

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(spots approx) where 6♥ makes without a club lead

[pescetom]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-October-24, 06:42, said:

I offer it because if I make that bid I expect to take more tricks off 4/5/6♥ at MPs, it's not difficult to visualise something like ... [see diagram above]... where 6♥ makes without a club lead

Tramticket's partners may be more like North than yours are
But yes I take your point.

[FelicityR]

4♠ seems sensible here. The opponents only have 28 HCPs maximum if the 2♠ opener has a minimum hand, so whilst 5♠ is an option, it might bounce the opponents into a distributional slam that makes.

4♠ probably makes it difficult to find that slam, and I'm a firm believer of bidding up to the level of the fit as quickly as possible here. Bidding around the edges with 4♣ just allows the opponents a little bit more extra space to make a decision, and as you're always going to sacrifice with 4♠ here, so that's what you should bid in my opinion.

The salient question that needs to be asked is whether you are prepared to bid 5♠ if they then bid 5♥? I'll leave someone more experienced than me to answer that. Five level decisions are notoriously tricky

[apollo1201]

Torn between 4 and 5S. But with a weakish support (JTxx in a 10-cd fit doesn’t bring as much value as in a 8-cd fit), I’ll take the low road. Change my CK or Q into the S K/Q and I’m signing for 5.

After that, I’m probably letting them if they bid 6H. We could make one of my C plus one of parttner’s honors (although it is not guaranteed).

If they bid 5H, note sure. It will depend on how they get to it (W direct, E after a value X from W, E alone, or one of them ending up there after a 4NT 2 places to play...).

And if they end up in C or D, a soft pass😅

[Cyberyeti]

FelicityR, on 2019-October-24, 11:53, said:

4♠ seems sensible here. The opponents only have 28 HCPs maximum if the 2♠ opener has a minimum hand, so whilst 5♠ is an option, it might bounce the opponents into a distributional slam that makes.

4♠ probably makes it difficult to find that slam, and I'm a firm believer of bidding up to the level of the fit as quickly as possible here. Bidding around the edges with 4♣ just allows the opponents a little bit more extra space to make a decision, and as you're always going to sacrifice with 4♠ here, so that's what you should bid in my opinion.

The salient question that needs to be asked is whether you are prepared to bid 5♠ if they then bid 5♥? I'll leave someone more experienced than me to answer that. Five level decisions are notoriously tricky

The other point is that if you ARE bidding 5♠, normally you do it first time rather than let them bid at the lower level, should you disobey that principle here ?

[apollo1201]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-October-24, 12:12, said:

The other point is that if you ARE bidding 5♠, normally you do it first time rather than let them bid at the lower level, should you disobey that principle here ?

Does the principle of selling your hand once, at once, apply here as well? When they bidding 4H is almost guaranteed, but maybe not 5, should you bid 5S direct, or 4 in case you buy the hand for 200 less, and 5 only if need be?

Reminds me of a similar situation long time ago (junior...) where I was W, 2S X 4S and I decided to take a save at 5H (didn’t know the 4NT bid at that time) with a 0652 weakish hand, partner had a moose and bid 6, but S decided to save against our slam.

[mdgraham]

Very difficult. 4♣ as a fit-jump has the obvious disadvantage that it allows a bit at the 4-level. 4♠ is ok but you are likely to have to decide what to do when the opponents bid (looking at your hand, it feels like this will happen).

If you want the lead-director, you could bid 5♣. However, pard won't take this as a F-J and it will be up to you to decide what to do next - certainly 5♠ as it is possible that this is making.

One theory that has been espoused is that on these big-fit hands you should simply try to end up declaring in your big trump fit. You may lose 5-7 imps if this is the wrong decision, but you avoid the 13-15 out when you should have been bidding but didn't. This means bidding spades, all the way. Not sure about bidding at the seven-level, though.

[pescetom]

Here is the actual layout:

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Double dummy, NS make 9 tricks and EW make 12.
This was played at 449 tables nationally.
At 40 of these NS made 4Sx, worth 95%.
At 37 NS made 4Sx-1 (or 5Sx-1), still worth 85%.
At 20 EW made 4H+1 (or 5H), worth 70%.
At 192 EW made 4H+2 (or 5H+1), worth 45%.
At 72 EW made 6H, worth 9%.
(all percentages to NS).

Thanks to all who replied so far.
There is general agreement on 4♠, no surprise.
I see that a couple of 3♠ have come out of the closet, I'd be interested to know their reasoning and whether they would pass out 4♥ next round.
I can see now why some were more tempted by 4♣ than I would have been, although here West would bid 4♥ and a club turns out to be no more effective than any other opening lead (except a small diamond).
I was a bit more surprised at how seriously many considered bidding directly 5♠, will have to think more about that.

The other aspect I was surprised nobody discussed yet is Total Tricks. South (unlike EW) knows that there are 20+ Total Trumps, as partner denies 4+card hearts. So in theory he can count on 8+ tricks even if opponents have slam, and he knows that in that case even a 6♠x sacrifice is justified (although probably little consolation - turns out to be 22% instead of 9% for slam). Not sure how many here would trust that reasoning though.

[miamijd]

pescetom, on 2019-October-25, 07:55, said:

Here is the actual layout:

---

Double dummy, NS make 9 tricks and EW make 12.
This was played at 449 tables nationally.
At 40 of these NS made 4Sx, worth 95%.
At 37 NS made 4Sx-1 (or 5Sx-1), still worth 85%.
At 20 EW made 4H+1 (or 5H), worth 70%.
At 192 EW made 4H+2 (or 5H+1), worth 45%.
At 72 EW made 6H, worth 9%.
(all percentages to NS).

Thanks to all who replied so far.
There is general agreement on 4♠, no surprise.
I see that a couple of 3♠ have come out of the closet, I'd be interested to know their reasoning and whether they would pass out 4♥ next round.
I can see now why some were more tempted by 4♣ than I would have been, although here West would bid 4♥ and a club turns out to be no more effective than any other opening lead (except a small diamond).
I was a bit more surprised at how seriously many considered bidding directly 5♠, will have to think more about that.

The other aspect I was surprised nobody discussed yet is Total Tricks. South (unlike EW) knows that there are 20+ Total Trumps, as partner denies 4+card hearts. So in theory he can count on 8+ tricks even if opponents have slam, and he knows that in that case even a 6♠x sacrifice is justified (although probably little consolation - turns out to be 22% instead of 9% for slam). Not sure how many here would trust that reasoning though.

Uh, I think you probably have the E-W hands backward, no? Surely East didn't X on his 4 HCP.

If the E-W hands are reversed, then I have a few comments:

1. E shouldn't X. A much better bid is 4C "Leaping Michaels." This shows a very good hand with 5-5 or better in clubs and hearts. Now at least your side will know to bid 5H over 4S, and maybe even 6H over 5S.

2. If E does X, then South has a wide choice of possible bids. 4S is sort of the obvious one. If you bid 4S, do NOT bid 5S later on. 5S is good, too, as you probably want to bid over 5H, so do it right away and put E-W to the guess. Another possibility is whatever bid shows spade support and asks for a club lead. For me, that's 2NT. The lead doesn't matter much here, but it could.

I think I would probably bid 5S.

3. You cannot be sure that the opponents have 10 hearts (partner would open 2S with six good spades and four bad hearts), but it's likely.

Cheers,
Mike

[pescetom]

miamijd, on 2019-October-25, 11:22, said:

Uh, I think you probably have the E-W hands backward, no? Surely East didn't X on his 4 HCP.

He did, the diagram is correct.

miamijd, on 2019-October-25, 11:22, said:

2. If E does X, then South has a wide choice of possible bids. 4S is sort of the obvious one. If you bid 4S, do NOT bid 5S later on. 5S is good, too, as you probably want to bid over 5H, so do it right away and put E-W to the guess. Another possibility is whatever bid shows spade support and asks for a club lead. For me, that's 2NT. The lead doesn't matter much here, but it could.

I think I would probably bid 5S.

Thanks, as said I'm reflecting on 5♠. 2NT here would be Ogust, no bid of ours shows spade support and asks for a club lead except maybe 4♣. Yes I think we want to bid over 5♠ if it comes to that, but I would still be concerned about jumping the gun when we might be allowed to play 4♠ doubled. Opponents don't know the length of their own fit nor of ours either.

miamijd, on 2019-October-25, 11:22, said:

3. You cannot be sure that the opponents have 10 hearts (partner would open 2S with six good spades and four bad hearts), but it's likely.

I can. Our agreement is not to open 2♠ with four hearts, as mentioned in OP, and I trust partner here. With six good spades and four bad hearts he would open 1♠ or pass.

[Tramticket]

pescetom, on 2019-October-25, 11:45, said:

He did, the diagram is correct.

Well, if the board was played 449 times you will expect a luny tunes auction ot two. But I bet there were not two easts who doubled!

[pescetom]

Tramticket, on 2019-October-25, 11:57, said:

Well, if the board was played 449 times you will expect a luny tunes auction ot two. But I bet there were not two easts who doubled!

Dunno,that's one reason I thought the hand was interesting. I wouldn't, but this guy did, and his partner still didn't bid slam.

[dsLawsd]

Good discussion. Maybe East was desperate for a top?
If I chose anything besides 4♠, it would be 3♣playing McCabe showing a lead director plus spade tolerance (3+). We know that there are about 20 trumps however the degree of fit will determine who makes what. 4 spades figure to make and the opponents might mess up their auction.

Most West players would bid and bid unless they had some private understanding about the double of 2 spades.

[DozyDom]

miamijd, on 2019-October-25, 11:22, said:

Uh, I think you probably have the E-W hands backward, no? Surely East didn't X on his 4 HCP.

If the E-W hands are reversed, then I have a few comments:

1. E shouldn't X. A much better bid is 4C "Leaping Michaels." This shows a very good hand with 5-5 or better in clubs and hearts. Now at least your side will know to bid 5H over 4S, and maybe even 6H over 5S.

I think at least some people play leaping Michaels as NF, and stick with double for the really wildly strong hands like this one.


Incidentally, if E really did double, and that was takeout, it should be impossible for the opponents to miss slam. There shouldn't be any thought about defending 4SX in W's head; holding it to 5 tricks is way, way too ambitious on high card strength alone.

[AL78]

pescetom, on 2019-October-25, 13:24, said:

Dunno,that's one reason I thought the hand was interesting. I wouldn't, but this guy did, and his partner still didn't bid slam.

Fielding a psyche?