[lamford]

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IMPs converted to VPs; National Premier League

You have a close decision with your final call but we say that you elect to bid 3NT. Would you or would you settle for a part score? And what would you do if you saw partner's hand?

The play's the thing, and West leads the two of spades, fourth best. What now? East will not waste a pip on this trick and will play the five.

[pescetom]

lamford, on 2019-October-21, 13:23, said:

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You have a close decision with your final call but we say that you elect to bid 3NT. Would you or would you settle for a part score? And what would you do if you saw partner's hand?

I would certainly elect to bid 3NT - partner had a closer decision IMO. Would not want to be here having seen his hand in conjunction with mine.

[KingCovert]

Probably cash all the clubs, and play diamonds somewhat rationally. 8♦ to the Jack, might have to duck the 2nd round hoping for some sort of doubleton in East. The goal is to try to repeatedly endplay opponents. The heart honours are probably split, and I imagine that they're behaving 4-3. Especially if clubs behave. Sounds that way since East didn't overcall 1♠ with 2♥. But, who knows? EDIT: Actually, our heart holding is far too spotty for East to ever overcall.

I'd really need to see a few cards as I'm playing the hand, but small club to cash the QJ would definitely be where I start.
As for the auction, I wouldn't have bid 2♣ if I were playing 2/1. Are you? I'd probably have bid 1NT. This leaves new minor forcing for the 4-4 heart fit, and, if partner has clubs, I'm content to play 1NT. Assuming your partner would raise 2NT in said auction, well, up to you. I'd pass though.

[johnu]

You didn't say whether this was MP or IMP. I'm not sure whether that makes a difference on this hand. I'm ok to be in 3NT with this dummy since I've been in much worse contracts than this.

That being said, you can make 3NT if you can take 2 diamond tricks before the opponents take 5 tricks. There's a possibility that you will take 3 spade tricks if the suit is favorable, and a 2nd heart trick. The 2nd possibility will probably require some help from the opponents.

So, I would win ♠K and lead a diamond to dummy. You can make 2 diamond tricks if diamonds are 3-2 with honors split or both honors with West (~51%) or 4-1 (or 5-0) with West having AKxx, ~10%. The problem is that you can lose 3 spade tricks if ♠2 isn't 4th best (but low from 3, or maybe falsecard?), or if East wins the 1st diamond and plays a heart you can lose 3 tricks in hearts (going up with ace), or a heart (ducking heart and heart and 2 spades), etc.

[dsLawsd]

Sure it is close but questionable because we have a misfit.
I prefer 1 NT not 2♣ but then I (on the advice of Edgar Kaplan in a letter) would have started with 1♣, It seems that to get a decent play of around 50% not vulnerable we would need a better spade suit opposite us.

Our VP score could improve if we are +120 and +50 on the board.
If 3NT goes -50 we will not be happy.

[FelicityR]

Only advanced, not an expert, but I believe most good partnerships will be in 3NT with these cards. The comment by dsLawd about this hand being a misfit puzzles me. It is not ideal having 4441 opposite 4432 but both hands have entries and a few useful intermediates cards. I have played worst 3NT hands with 25 HCPs between them

As for playing the hand, play on ♦s and see what happens could work. Cashing the ♣s first just burns our boats straight away with entries. I always thought that the correct way to play a no-trump contract is to set up your 'second' suit first without touching the one with automatic tricks. Admittedly playing ♦s first leaves us open to going down but it also means the opponents have to find the right defence. Showing them the ♣AK by playing on ♣s first will probably make it easier for them to read the hand.

I'm not too keen on the 1♦ opening though with 4M Acol (if that's what is being played) it is technically correct - the suit below the singleton with 4441 except if the singleton is a ♠ when 1♦ is opened.

[miamijd]

I don't see anything wrong with the bidding at all. I might have started 1C and rebid 1NT, but you'll wind up in 3NT all day.

No, I would not open a 15-17 NT on this hand. That is awful is several respects.

Yes, you want to be in game here. 25 combined HCP at IMPs -- game every time. Always -- always -- bid close games at IMPs. And yes, I'd bid game in MPs, too, because every other pair (at least where I play) would do so and I have no reason to believe game won't be at least 50% until I see the dummy.

As for the play, win the spade K and lead a diamond up. Your best shot is diamonds 3-2 with West holding at least one honor. Since West led what looks to be a fourth-best spade, you would lose 2 diamonds and at most 2 spades. You don't want to cash the clubs first, because then you lose your communications.

Cheers,
Mike

[msjennifer]

Sirs,I too am not an expert.My only statement (PLEASE do not consider it as a remark or a comment), is that WE would open this hand not one diamond but one club (because of the valuable Spade king) since then we have a safe rebid of 1NT if at all partner responds 1Spade.and a safe raise over any other 1 level response( pass over 1NT).Thanks.

[bilalz]

I would take partner to task if I am not in game with those cards, the intermediates, the QJs and tens, 25 hcps. Not all games make (play diamonds up like the others have said and move on to the next board if you get 8 tricks instead of 9, not even worth a sigh much less a discussion) and anyone who thinks they should not be in game on the bidding is just too passive to understand that its a bidders game. Heck I'm happy being in game after seeing all 26 cards and am astounded at the suggestion that its a bad idea just based on the bidding.

On the other issue, I'm opening 1C regardless of our agreement for 4-4 minors given the difference in the quality of my minors (should always prefer to help partner with the lead if it comes to that and a small lie is pretty easy price to pay on this hand).

[cherdano]

I am not clever enough for anything other than a diamond at trick two. How are they going to beat me with a heart shift? LHO won't have ♥H9xx given that he led a spade, dummy's suit, instead.

[lamford]

cherdano, on 2019-October-23, 04:48, said:

I am not clever enough for anything other than a diamond at trick two. How are they going to beat me with a heart shift? LHO won't have ♥H9xx given that he led a spade, dummy's suit, instead.

Maybe he has read Woolsey's article many years ago that the worst leads are the "three-apart" ATxx K9xx and Q8xx. He did have the last of these in fact, and East will shift to a heart if you play a diamond at trick two, when you cannot make it. However, if you play four rounds of clubs first, West is triple squeezed and it is a "clear and obvious error" not to do so.

[cherdano]

What was West's hand?

[miamijd]

cherdano, on 2019-October-23, 10:11, said:

What was West's hand?

If East has K9x of hearts, then the lead of the 9h will likely beat you when East wins his D honor. If you win the Ace, then West can win the second diamond, lead a low H to East's King, and then have Q8 back of your T7 when East leads his small heart. If you duck the heart, then West can likely beat you by shifting back to spades.

[miamijd]

lamford, on 2019-October-23, 09:40, said:

Maybe he has read Woolsey's article many years ago that the worst leads are the "three-apart" ATxx K9xx and Q8xx. He did have the last of these in fact, and East will shift to a heart if you play a diamond at trick two, when you cannot make it. However, if you play four rounds of clubs first, West is triple squeezed and it is a "clear and obvious error" not to do so.

Not exactly. Playing clubs first wins on that layout but loses on a lot of others. For example, let's say West has this hand:

Qxxx
K9x
KTx
xxx

If you play four rounds of clubs, E-W pitch hearts. Now you lead a diamond up. East wins his A and returns a spade to West's Q and dummy's A. Now what? You can't lead a diamond from the board, or else the opponents will get three diamonds and two spades. You can't lead a H to the Ace, or else the opponents will get two diamonds, a heart, and two spades. You are dead. On the other hand, if you lead a diamond up at trick 2, the contract is gin. If the opponents continue spades, they get 2 s and 2 d. If the opponents switch to hearts, they get 2 h and 2 d. You get 9 before they can get a fifth.

Quite honestly, I think a hand like the one I posited is a lot more likely than the actual hand, because with the actual hand, it is very possible that West would have led H rather than dummy's spade suit (sort of a restricted choice variant).

Cheers,
Mike

[cherdano]

I would still like to know West's hand. I still can't believe it's right to lead a spade from their hand, but I would like to know what led a Premier league player to think so.

[lamford]

cherdano, on 2019-October-24, 02:21, said:

I would still like to know West's hand. I still can't believe it's right to lead a spade from their hand, but I would like to know what led a Premier league player to think so.

The West hand is Qxxx Q9xx AT xxx. I did not bid 3NT, and I think I was wrong not to do so, but was surprised that the combined hands are only 29% to make game. I don't have the auction from the other rooms, but know that a spade was usually led.

[cherdano]

Ok. I will refuse to believe West led a spade on the auction given here as long as I can. And it seems for now I can.

[mikeh]

cherdano, on 2019-October-24, 12:18, said:

Ok. I will refuse to believe West led a spade on the auction given here as long as I can. And it seems for now I can.

Arend

These days I often agree with you, but on this one, I think that West has an arguable case for a spade. I am NOT arguing that I would have led a spades, and given that I now know the hand, I can't be confident that I can now say what I would have led at the table.

On this auction, south being 1=3=5=4/1=4=4=4/ or even, for many but not often for me, 1=3=4=5, is entirely plausible, plus West's hand and spades are too strong to be able to argue (and I know you didn't make this argument) that east could have doubled on many hands where a spade is correct.

I'm inclined, subject to the above caveat, to think that a heart is the 'normal' lead, but haven't we all seen dummies where the heart lead costs a trick and a tempo.

[cherdano]

I don't think 1=4=4=4 is common, as many would open or rebid 1NT with that. And if South is 1=3=5=4, why does that make a low spade from ♠Q532 a good lead? It's just a gamble that South had a singleton AND that North has only four spades AND that partner's spades are better than North's spades AND that South's singleton is not intermediate (J/T/9) in a layout where we should have led the Q instead. I think we are at least as likely to have a 4-4 heart fit than to have a 4-4 spade fit, and I'd rather lead the suit where it looks like our fourth round in the suit will be a winner.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the auction in the other room was 1N 2C 2H 2N 3N.

[lamford]

cherdano, on 2019-October-24, 14:52, said:

I don't think 1=4=4=4 is common, as many would open or rebid 1NT with that. And if South is 1=3=5=4, why does that make a low spade from ♠Q532 a good lead? It's just a gamble that South had a singleton AND that North has only four spades AND that partner's spades are better than North's spades AND that South's singleton is not intermediate (J/T/9) in a layout where we should have led the Q instead. I think we are at least as likely to have a 4-4 heart fit than to have a 4-4 spade fit, and I'd rather lead the suit where it looks like our fourth round in the suit will be a winner.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the auction in the other room was 1N 2C 2H 2N 3N.

I have contacted a couple of the other (seven) pairs, and one opened a strong NT on the South hand, even thought its K-R is only 14.4 and there is a singleton. They bid 2C-2H-3NT of course and had a spade lead. Another began 1C-1D-1H and they had a spade lead from the other side, played a diamond and a heart switch would now have beaten them. 3NT always made, except for Muggins, which is me, who did not bid it. A heart was led once on a similar auction to mine. On four tables the contract could have been beaten but was not, if the declarer and lead are correctly recorded, which is a big if. From the other side it should go off on a heart lead, but only with a spade switch.

The lesson for me was Hamman's one - to bid 3NT even if you think it will be odds against and even if it is NV. I lost the full 7 on the X-IMPs.