[jammen]

---

I don't like my play as I hate to commit myself so early. Does knowing that the bot will always falsecard the higher of two equals help me?

[TylerE]

Once the J♦ comes down, I'm banging the other high diamond on the table immediately. If the T♦ falls we just have 12 tricks right away without finessing anything (4♦+4♠+3♣+1♥.

[dokoko]

A high level opponent would drop the jack from JT (obligatory falsecard) and also from JTx (to give you a losing option). Therefore you should play for the drop against him. No idea whether this applies when playing a bot.

[smerriman]

 dokoko, on 2018-July-21, 23:50, said:

A high level opponent would drop the jack from JT (obligatory falsecard) and also from JTx (to give you a losing option). Therefore you should play for the drop against him. No idea whether this applies when playing a bot.

I don't think this is relevant; it's impossible for West to hold a singleton given the lead. The only question is, would GIB play J from Jx? Surely this loses in several cases, so I would say no, thus finessing the 9 can never work.

[jammen]

 TylerE, on 2018-July-21, 17:39, said:

Once the J♦ comes down, I'm banging the other high diamond on the table immediately. If the T♦ falls we just have 12 tricks right away without finessing anything (4♦+4♠+3♣+1♥.

What do you do when West shows out on the second ♦?

[jammen]

 smerriman, on 2018-July-21, 23:57, said:

I don't think this is relevant; it's impossible for West to hold a singleton given the lead. The only question is, would GIB play J from Jx? Surely this loses in several cases, so I would say no, thus finessing the 9 can never work.

Why is it impossible for West to hold a singleton? Can't East lead the 3 from 10,8,5,4,3?

[Winstonm]

The issue is to find a way to test a suit prior to losing a spade trick. The best chance is diamond J10 doubleton, as playing 3 rounds of any minor could set up the setting trick when the spade is lost.

If nothing good happens under the AK of diamonds, I would play on spades and refuse the heart finesse, test diamonds for a 3-3 split, then run the spades if diamonds fail, playing for a club/heart squeeze or 3-3 clubs.

[kenberg]

I am not so sure that the spade finesse is a good idea. To bring in five spade tricks you need Kx with W but wait. Unless it is K9 the play will go QKAx and now you probably play small to the J in which case East's 9 will be a trick.

Suppose instead you play a spade to the A and a small spade. If the K9 was on your right you have made a mistake but otherwise you were only getting four spade tricks anyway. Now suppose a club comes back, as it did when you ran the finesse. You are sure of 4+1+3+3=11 tricks.
Win on the board and cash the high diamond. In this case the T falls and it's all over. Suppose it doesn't. If diamonds are 3-3 you have it, if clubs are 3-3 you have it. But checking for the diamonds split comes later.

What about the heart? Don't finesse, not now, not later. . After the diamond K if it goes spot-spot -spot, play two more rounds of clubs tossing a heart from the board. If they split, claim. If not, go back to the board with the Ace of hearts and run the spades. After 11 tricks you are on the board with the D9 and the H J. In your had you have Q7 of diamonds. If the diamonds were 3-3 in the beginning, the Ds are still good. If the Ds were 4-2 and the HK was with the four diamonds, that hand was squeezed. Since the most likely person to have four diamonds is E, this means that this is one of those hands where if the heart finesse worked there was not need to take it since the squeeze works equally well.

Looks like a favorite to make: JT in Ds falls, or Ds 3-3, or Cs 3-3, or Ds 4-2 but H K with the four Ds. Note that this last case, heart K with the four Ds, is the one that happens and in that case you don't give a hoot which two Ds W has.

And in the unlikely event that W has four Ds, maybe the squeeze (H-D or even C-D) works against him.

[smerriman]

 jammen, on 2018-July-22, 10:01, said:

Why is it impossible for West to hold a singleton? Can't East lead the 3 from 10,8,5,4,3?

No, GIB never* leads 5th high. Always* 4th high from that holding. So West must hold JT or JTx.

*97.4% of the time. The rest, unexplained bugs happen.

[heart76]

 jammen, on 2018-July-21, 13:53, said:

---

I don't like my play as I hate to commit myself so early. Does knowing that the bot will always falsecard the higher of two equals help me?

Given E's play, I would have guessed him for short ♣. If this holds true, ♣ are likely to be a one-side menace sitting after the tenace.
Since playing ♦ modifies entries for the squeeze and since also I would never play a ♥ finesse with these premises, I would cross in dummy with ♥A and cashed 2 ♠. This would confirm the probable distribution in E.

[Cyberyeti]

You could always cross to hand after knocking out the spade by leading ♥Q, I don't know GIB's thoughts on covering in this circumstances, but it may be an "if he doesn't play it he hasn't got it" situation so you're playing the ace regardless.

[Winstonm]

 Cyberyeti, on 2018-July-23, 06:10, said:

You could always cross to hand after knocking out the spade by leading ♥Q, I don't know GIB's thoughts on covering in this circumstances, but it may be an "if he doesn't play it he hasn't got it" situation so you're playing the ace regardless.

The problem there is that as soon as you knock out the spade king, a good defender will lead a heart, putting you to an immediate guess.

[Cyberyeti]

 Winstonm, on 2018-July-23, 10:54, said:

The problem there is that as soon as you knock out the spade king, a good defender will lead a heart, putting you to an immediate guess.

Yes but will GIB ? (and the K didn't have to be that side)

[jammen]

 kenberg, on 2018-July-22, 14:13, said:

I am not so sure that the spade finesse is a good idea. To bring in five spade tricks you need Kx with W but wait. Unless it is K9 the play will go QKAx and now you probably play small to the J in which case East's 9 will be a trick.

Suppose instead you play a spade to the A and a small spade. If the K9 was on your right you have made a mistake but otherwise you were only getting four spade tricks anyway. Now suppose a club comes back, as it did when you ran the finesse. You are sure of 4+1+3+3=11 tricks.
Win on the board and cash the high diamond. In this case the T falls and it's all over. Suppose it doesn't. If diamonds are 3-3 you have it, if clubs are 3-3 you have it. But checking for the diamonds split comes later.

What about the heart? Don't finesse, not now, not later. . After the diamond K if it goes spot-spot -spot, play two more rounds of clubs tossing a heart from the board. If they split, claim. If not, go back to the board with the Ace of hearts and run the spades. After 11 tricks you are on the board with the D9 and the H J. In your had you have Q7 of diamonds. If the diamonds were 3-3 in the beginning, the Ds are still good. If the Ds were 4-2 and the HK was with the four diamonds, that hand was squeezed. Since the most likely person to have four diamonds is E, this means that this is one of those hands where if the heart finesse worked there was not need to take it since the squeeze works equally well.

Looks like a favorite to make: JT in Ds falls, or Ds 3-3, or Cs 3-3, or Ds 4-2 but H K with the four Ds. Note that this last case, heart K with the four Ds, is the one that happens and in that case you don't give a hoot which two Ds W has.

And in the unlikely event that W has four Ds, maybe the squeeze (H-D or even C-D) works against him.

Yes, I like this line. Note that I would have finessed the 9♠ if West covered as I pick up all 4-2 splits except for K9 doubleton. However, you're right that ace and small towards dummy is far superior.

[Winstonm]

 Cyberyeti, on 2018-July-23, 11:19, said:

Yes but will GIB ? (and the K didn't have to be that side)

No, it doesn't, but if it's not, there isn't a problem. No guaranteed make, but at least you would get a chance to leave the heart finesse to last before testing both minors.

[Winstonm]

 jammen, on 2018-July-23, 11:47, said:

Yes, I like this line. Note that I would have finessed the 9♠ if West covered as I pick up all 4-2 splits except for K9 doubleton. However, you're right that ace and small towards dummy is far superior.

I never thought anyone was trying the spade finesse - such a low chance of Kx - with the clumsy entry situations.

[mikeh]

 kenberg, on 2018-July-22, 14:13, said:

I am not so sure that the spade finesse is a good idea. To bring in five spade tricks you need Kx with W but wait. Unless it is K9 the play will go QKAx and now you probably play small to the J in which case East's 9 will be a trick.

Suppose instead you play a spade to the A and a small spade. If the K9 was on your right you have made a mistake but otherwise you were only getting four spade tricks anyway. Now suppose a club comes back, as it did when you ran the finesse. You are sure of 4+1+3+3=11 tricks.
Win on the board and cash the high diamond. In this case the T falls and it's all over. Suppose it doesn't. If diamonds are 3-3 you have it, if clubs are 3-3 you have it. But checking for the diamonds split comes later.

What about the heart? Don't finesse, not now, not later. . After the diamond K if it goes spot-spot -spot, play two more rounds of clubs tossing a heart from the board. If they split, claim. If not, go back to the board with the Ace of hearts and run the spades. After 11 tricks you are on the board with the D9 and the H J. In your had you have Q7 of diamonds. If the diamonds were 3-3 in the beginning, the Ds are still good. If the Ds were 4-2 and the HK was with the four diamonds, that hand was squeezed. Since the most likely person to have four diamonds is E, this means that this is one of those hands where if the heart finesse worked there was not need to take it since the squeeze works equally well.

Looks like a favorite to make: JT in Ds falls, or Ds 3-3, or Cs 3-3, or Ds 4-2 but H K with the four Ds. Note that this last case, heart K with the four Ds, is the one that happens and in that case you don't give a hoot which two Ds W has.

And in the unlikely event that W has four Ds, maybe the squeeze (H-D or even C-D) works against him.

Hi Ken

I like your line ok, but I don't think it works quite as well as you may think. Firstly, if east guards the diamonds, you are correct in that he is in trouble if you can time matters so as to have a red suit squeeze, but it doesn't matter since when the squeeze works, the heart hook works. However, I think you are missing an option.

Here is my line.

Cash the second diamond, and we are all now assuming that the 10 did not drop.

Play spade A and drive out the spade (if spades break really badly, say K9xxx in West, we need to recalibrate but that's so unlikely I won't spend time discussing it further...I would, however, have analyzed this before playing to trick 2)

What do we pitch from hand is, as they should, they hold up in spades?

We have an easy club pitch but we will need to take a second and third pitch at some time, and pitching 2 clubs gives up on that suit being 3-3. Assume, for example, that West wins the third spade and exits the 4th.

We pitch the heart Q...not the x....if we eventually have to take the heart hook, we don't want to be advancing the stiff Q and have East, with Kx, duck.

But that isn't enough. We can play 3 rounds of clubs before the last spade, and if clubs are 3-3, we claim. Assume that they are not....how do we get back to dummy to cash that last spade? Only in hearts, which gives up on, or commits to, the heart finesse.

My suggestion: give up on squeezing east in diamonds...if they do play back a spade when they win the King, run the suit, pitching a diamond, a club and the heart Queen.

Then cross in diamonds and play 2 rounds of clubs, ending in hand.

If the suit split, claim.

We have played 5 spades, 3 diamonds and 2 clubs so are down to a 3 card end game: void x void Ax opposite void AJx void void

We will have a complete count on the hand...they cannot hide anything from us.

We cash the top club. If the suit split, we claim

If East held both minors, he has surrendered his diamond by now, and either the heart K appears when we lead our stiff or we are down.

If West held clubs, then he is down to a stiff heart.

We will know how hearts split.

A priori, if West started with 5 hearts, we'd play for the squeeze, but we have to moderate this by asking whether East might have led a heart from xxx.

If hearts were 4-4, we would seem to be on a complete guess. However, East might have led from xxxx in hearts and never from Kxxx, so we have a clue.

The hand is even more complex if East wins the spade, since he should return a heart regardless of his holding. If he has the King, then he knows you have the Queen, in order to have a 1N opening, so he needs to make you commit.

I've gone on at enough length now, so I will stop:)

[jammen]

 smerriman, on 2018-July-22, 14:22, said:

No, GIB never* leads 5th high. Always* 4th high from that holding. So West must hold JT or JTx.

*97.4% of the time. The rest, unexplained bugs happen.

Ok. However, I also know that Gibbo led the J♠ from jxx after his partner opened 1♦, I overcalled 1NT and my partner raised to 3nt. Gibber caught me with Q9xx opposite AKx and I went down one. I posted the hand when it happened but I can't find it now so could be deleted. Maybe I'm just paranoid but I don't trust these bots at all.

[kenberg]

 mikeh, on 2018-July-23, 14:15, said:

Hi Ken

I like your line ok, but I don't think it works quite as well as you may think. Firstly, if east guards the diamonds, you are correct in that he is in trouble if you can time matters so as to have a red suit squeeze, but it doesn't matter since when the squeeze works, the heart hook works. However, I think you are missing an option.

Here is my line.

Cash the second diamond, and we are all now assuming that the 10 did not drop.

Play spade A and drive out the spade (if spades break really badly, say K9xxx in West, we need to recalibrate but that's so unlikely I won't spend time discussing it further...I would, however, have analyzed this before playing to trick 2)

What do we pitch from hand is, as they should, they hold up in spades?

We have an easy club pitch but we will need to take a second and third pitch at some time, and pitching 2 clubs gives up on that suit being 3-3. Assume, for example, that West wins the third spade and exits the 4th.

We pitch the heart Q...not the x....if we eventually have to take the heart hook, we don't want to be advancing the stiff Q and have East, with Kx, duck.

But that isn't enough. We can play 3 rounds of clubs before the last spade, and if clubs are 3-3, we claim. Assume that they are not....how do we get back to dummy to cash that last spade? Only in hearts, which gives up on, or commits to, the heart finesse.

My suggestion: give up on squeezing east in diamonds...if they do play back a spade when they win the King, run the suit, pitching a diamond, a club and the heart Queen.

Then cross in diamonds and play 2 rounds of clubs, ending in hand.

If the suit split, claim.

We have played 5 spades, 3 diamonds and 2 clubs so are down to a 3 card end game: void x void Ax opposite void AJx void void

We will have a complete count on the hand...they cannot hide anything from us.

We cash the top club. If the suit split, we claim

If East held both minors, he has surrendered his diamond by now, and either the heart K appears when we lead our stiff or we are down.

If West held clubs, then he is down to a stiff heart.

We will know how hearts split.

A priori, if West started with 5 hearts, we'd play for the squeeze, but we have to moderate this by asking whether East might have led a heart from xxx.

If hearts were 4-4, we would seem to be on a complete guess. However, East might have led from xxxx in hearts and never from Kxxx, so we have a clue.

The hand is even more complex if East wins the spade, since he should return a heart regardless of his holding. If he has the King, then he knows you have the Queen, in order to have a 1N opening, so he needs to make you commit.

I've gone on at enough length now, so I will stop:)

It's a fairly complex hand and I had the same feeling that I had gone on long enough. I alluded to the idea that W was unlikely to be holding four diamonds. The lead was the 3. Gibs lead small from both three small and four small, but I would not expect small from two small and leading a stiff against a 6NT contract seems weird. Of course sometimes people do weird things against slams, but I decided to just work the hand through on the assumption that E had either three or four diamonds. Or maybe five but the notes say they lead fourth best so it wouldn't be the 3 if they follow that.

Therefore I decided to forget the finesse. If it's wrong it's wrong and if it's right it isn't needed.

It crossed my mind that there might be a double squeeze centered on heart if E holds 4 diamonds, as he does, and W holds 4 clubs, as he does. But the timing and entries seemed tough and I gave up. I might get back to it.

A question that I thought briefly about: If the J at T1 is not from JT, what is it from? A false card from JTx was suggested and that could be. I don't think it is a stiff. Leading from Txxxx is unattractive against 6NT and the 3 would then be fifth best. So I am not going to lead a diamond finessing the 9. A false card from Jx seems weird. And if he has 3 I don't care what it means. I did not think long about this.

About the bots: I usually treat my bot partners and opponents as if they were human. They appreciate that. But yesterday in the acbl thing they got me a few times. I am plotting my revenge for today.

I will look over your line in more detail after I play the acbl hands today. This is an interesting hand.

[nullve]

 jammen, on 2018-July-21, 13:53, said:

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I don't like my play as I hate to commit myself so early. Does knowing that the bot will always falsecard the higher of two equals help me?

Idea:

After winning the first trick with the ♦A, play a spade to the A and another spade. If East wins the second spade, then blah blah. If he ducks, play a third spade and discard the ♥Q from hand. If East wins the third spade, then blah blah. If he ducks again, cash the ♦K and play three rounds of clubs and discard a spade or small heart from dummy. If clubs are 3-3, 12 tricks are guaranteed. If clubs are 4-2, in which case West is almost certainly the one with four, play a fourth club and make sure to keep ♥AJ and the remaining diamond in dummy, forcing West to give you two heart tricks unless he can exit with a third diamond.