[miamijd]

nekthen, on 2017-April-15, 02:57, said:

East has chosen 2♠ instead of dbl missing the AK♠

I see something like

QJTxxx
xx
AQ
KQJ

a reasonable chance for 8 tricks and not much chance of defeating 2♥

It seems reasonable to give West a ♥ honour and nothing else.

So far the bidding has been entirely reasonable. It all depends on who has the A♥ and who has the ♠ singleton.

On this basis I see 2♠ as an almost certain make and 3♥ probably down so I pass

I think the doublers of 2♠ are under the impression the 2♠ is an unusual action. It may well be normal

First, why do you think East is so strong for his balancing bid? He'd make the same bid if the Ad were a small diamond.

Second, why do you think partner has a H honor and nothing else for a vul 2H opener?

Finally, even on the hand you posit, X may still be fine. Give partner the AJh and you take 2 spades, a heart, a heart ruff, a club, and a diamond. +200.

Cheers,
mike

[miamijd]

First round is a clear pass. You don't have a heart fit. Where are your tricks on offense.

If partner makes normal weak 2 bids, second round is a X at MPs (never at IMPs). 2H will make more often than not. If partner has the Ah, you are looking at 6 tricks. If he doesn't, then he ought to have something outside H for you. In any event, 2S rates to go down, so you have to X to get +200 instead of +100.

If partner makes undisciplined weak 2 bids in first seat, then you are stuck guessing.

And as noted above, in IMPs this is entirely different. Then you have two clear passes. +100 is just as good as +110; -670 is disaster.

Cheers,
Mike

[neilkaz]

miamijd, on 2017-April-15, 15:58, said:

First round is a clear pass. You don't have a heart fit. Where are your tricks on offense.

If partner makes normal weak 2 bids, second round is a X at MPs (never at IMPs). 2H will make more often than not. If partner has the Ah, you are looking at 6 tricks. If he doesn't, then he ought to have something outside H for you. In any event, 2S rates to go down, so you have to X to get +200 instead of +100.

If partner makes undisciplined weak 2 bids in first seat, then you are stuck guessing.

And as noted above, in IMPs this is entirely different. Then you have two clear passes. +100 is just as good as +110; -670 is disaster.

Cheers,
Mike

I agree with you 100%.

[Jinksy]

Cyberyeti, on 2017-April-14, 17:39, said:

Picture partner with KQJxxx and out, this could easily be making an overtrick

I did picture him with it, and unlike others I think it's a perfectly good weak 2. But partner so rarely has a perfectly good weak 2, and this is MPs. I think it's more likely that 2♠ is going down than making, and if it does make we're probably not getting much better than 30% anyway, so has more to gain than lose.

[MrAce]

1-Pass
2-Pass

[JLilly]

I think it's critical to know how tight partner is with weak-two bids when vulnerable. And how much having a void and/or a four-or-five-card side-suit affects their calculus. And, not knowing partner individually, guessing based on the community of players from which partner was drawn.

[nige1]

JLilly, on 2017-April-15, 23:10, said:

I think it's critical to know how tight partner is with weak-two bids when vulnerable. And how much having a void and/or a four-or-five-card side-suit affects their calculus. And, not knowing partner individually, guessing based on the community of players from which partner was drawn.

Agree. It might also be helpful to know with what kind of hand East is likely to protect. At pairs, players tend to be less disciplined, so your decision does hinge on your assessment of probabilities,

[GrahamJson]

Trying to predict what will happen at other tables, and particularly assuming that they will all be the same, can be a mugs game. Yes, if everyone else is making 2H then you need to double 2S, but the chances are that they are not. Some may not open partner's hand, or may open 1H, or 3H. Others might overcall 3S, or double. In partscore situations like this a plus score is king so I feel that getting 2S one off will be fine, maybe not 100% but well above average. Clearly 2S doubled making will be a zero.

[SteveMoe]

PASS^2

[Phil]

We can't give RHO a free shot at 2S. I'd rather bid 3H than pass. 110 vs 100 /200 looks like a realistic outcome and we have a score to protect.

Could partner have KQJxxx and out? But he might have some other assorted goodies that make us a lock for a set.

[mr1303]

If you never concede a doubled contract, you aren't doubling enough. I double 2S. I've been wrong before.

I expect 1 off to be mostly likely, with 2 off possible if partner has a fair hand.

[mlbridge]

Pass first go around.

After the 2S overcall, I would double for penalty if my pard is conservative and I can expect some values in the other two suits. If my pard is aggressive and plays hand well, I would bid 3H. My 10 of hearts may help out.

If my pard is weak, I would pass and take my chances at setting 2S

[Nabooba]

miamijd, on 2017-April-15, 15:58, said:

First round is a clear pass. You don't have a heart fit. Where are your tricks on offense.

If partner makes normal weak 2 bids, second round is a X at MPs (never at IMPs). 2H will make more often than not. If partner has the Ah, you are looking at 6 tricks. If he doesn't, then he ought to have something outside H for you. In any event, 2S rates to go down, so you have to X to get +200 instead of +100.

If partner makes undisciplined weak 2 bids in first seat, then you are stuck guessing.

And as noted above, in IMPs this is entirely different. Then you have two clear passes. +100 is just as good as +110; -670 is disaster.

Cheers,
Mike

"If partner has the Ah, you are looking at 6 tricks"
Uh where?
AH, 2S and maybe a H ruff, AC and where is the 6th defensive trick?

[JLilly]

Would partner ever open 2M with four cards in the other M? If they did what would that mean? Randos on BBO, I'd assume 2M just meant 6 cards and not enough for 1M and too much for P. This kind of hand makes me sympathetic to Muiderberg and other 5-card weak-two treatments that are scarce in North America, even if those conventions don't solve the problem.