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What's the best line? A seemingly simple hand

#1 User is offline   zenbiddist 

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Posted 2014-April-08, 05:30

4 South, Q led (IMPs)

982
A62
Q6
AQ853

AK54
K8743
T5
K7

How would you play this? What suggested your line of play?
A strong player disliked my line and so now I'm curious about the hand.
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#2 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2014-April-08, 06:25

A, AK, KAQ pitching a diamond. If I am still on lead after this, then club pitching another diamond.

Although I'm no wizard, so won't be surprised if someone finds better.
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#3 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2014-April-08, 06:44

A, K, KAQ.

 wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the 3.


 rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#4 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-April-08, 08:07

How about

A

K

K-A

3 and ruff if E follows.

If 3-3 clubs we do not lose anything. We now can go dummy with A and play clubs.

If someone ruffs 3rd we discard a , they now cash a and they may play 4th while we discard a . and they ruff again. Take the shift, go dummy with A and discard another spade on 5th club ?
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#5 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-April-08, 08:19

Na it doesn't work, nevermind. I think KAQ line better
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#6 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2014-April-08, 08:29

View PostHanoi5, on 2014-April-08, 06:44, said:

A, K, KAQ.

I agree with this line even though this line loses when East has 2 hearts and 2 clubs while ruffing a low club at trick 5 would win.
However, the above line wins when clubs are 3-3 and trumps 4-1.

Rainer Herrmann
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#7 User is offline   zenbiddist 

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Posted 2014-April-10, 02:46

View Postrhm, on 2014-April-08, 08:29, said:

I agree with this line even though this line loses when East has 2 hearts and 2 clubs while ruffing a low club at trick 5 would win.
However, the above line wins when clubs are 3-3 and trumps 4-1.

Rainer Herrmann


Yes. I'm not confident of gauging the probability of suit breaks very well, especially in a rush. At the table I judged that suits were probably breaking relatively nicely because my hands were balanced-ish and because nobody bid. Rather than hoping for a 3-3 break in a black suit, or playing for 4-1 trumps, I ducked a heart at trick two. The opponents cashed two diamonds then played a spade. I won and cashed K, K-A and ruffed a club, glad that I wasn't over-ruffed. Now I was able to cross to dummy's A and pitch losing spades on the established clubs.

My line goes off when the player with the third trump has only two clubs (slightly more likely I guess), and has a spade left. A few good players told me they'd play two top hearts, then club club club pitching a diamond. I'm still not sure which line works in the most cases. Is there a shortcut for this kind of thinking? I don't have the brain to go case-by-case quickly enough at the table. Thanks for looking everyone
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#8 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2014-April-10, 05:41

View Postzenbiddist, on 2014-April-10, 02:46, said:

A few good players told me they'd play two top hearts, then club club club pitching a diamond. I'm still not sure which line works in the most cases. Is there a shortcut for this kind of thinking? I don't have the brain to go case-by-case quickly enough at the table. Thanks for looking everyone

This is not a bad line, but consider this ordinary layout


Two top heart loses. West does not ruff the third club, but discards diamonds and waits until he gets in to draw dummy's last trump.
Saving the A for later and as a late entry to dummy avoids this problem. (If West ruffs the third round of clubs and plays a diamond to East, South should not ruff the 9, but discard a spade.)

With regard to your question, unfortunately I do not know a shortcut and I do not think there is one.

It is often difficult to see different lines of play in the first place and comparing them is anything but easy in complex cases.
You can either try to compute their absolute probability to succeed or you can compare two lines, by comparing only the layouts where one wins over the other.
Both methods are not trivial and require a lot of expertise and some mathematical background.
I know because I see errors even in recently published books on expert play.
This is one area where I think double dummy programs should get better. Double Dummy simulators (in this case deal out only the defenders cards) should be improved to tell you which line worked most of the time.
If the sample is large enough this is very likely the best line or very close to it. As I understand good Bridge playing software works like this, but the samples are often quite small to avoid long delays in the play of the hand. So the result is not accurate enough.
Fortunately many deals are not that complex.
The more important issue is to see alternative lines of play in the first place. Experienced Bridge players often have a good feeling which line is more likely to succeed.

Rainer Herrmann
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#9 User is offline   mfa1010 

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Posted 2014-April-10, 10:37

I must resist the urge to duck the spade... must resist, it is indeed at horrible play...
Michael Askgaard
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#10 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-April-11, 15:01

i'd just ruff a club and take it from there
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#11 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2014-April-12, 02:49

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-April-11, 15:01, said:

i'd just ruff a club and take it from there

And what makes you believe this to be the best line?

Rainer Herrmann
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#12 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-April-12, 14:51

Nothing in particular. Just my feeling.
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#13 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2014-April-12, 18:24

View Postzenbiddist, on 2014-April-10, 02:46, said:

Yes. I'm not confident of gauging the probability of suit breaks very well, especially in a rush. At the table I judged that suits were probably breaking relatively nicely because my hands were balanced-ish and because nobody bid. Rather than hoping for a 3-3 break in a black suit, or playing for 4-1 trumps, I ducked a heart at trick two. The opponents cashed two diamonds then played a spade. I won and cashed ♥K, ♣K-A and ruffed a club, glad that I wasn't over-ruffed. Now I was able to cross to dummy's ♥A and pitch losing spades on the established clubs.
My line goes off when the player with the third trump has only two clubs (slightly more likely I guess), and has a spade left. A few good players told me they'd play two top hearts, then club club club pitching a diamond. I'm still not sure which line works in the most cases. Is there a shortcut for this kind of thinking? I don't have the brain to go case-by-case quickly enough at the table. Thanks for looking everyone

Rubens and Rodwell have written books to help you to work out the best line at the table but IMO, it's still hard. Gib and other double-dummy solvers, can help you to work out the best line away from the table. Here among the many possibilities, the main ones that you might consider are that LHO has sole control of:
just


and

and

and and

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#14 User is offline   zenbiddist 

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Posted 2014-November-04, 01:57

Thanks everyone. What about this hand? Similar themes - came up two days ago. Lots of really pretty possibilities. Keen to hear what other people think:



6NT South, 9 led (matchpoints)

Ps: So , works when clubs are 4-2, but there are other possibilities. How do people think about this hand? It's quite juicy IMO.
PPs: I'm aware my 4NT bid was probably not going to be interpreted as quant, but that was my excuse for being in the tight slam i was probably going to end up in :)
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#15 User is offline   beatrix45 

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Posted 2014-November-04, 02:49

Not a promising situation. Duck a trump early. Then go for the club suit. 3-3 or 4-2 with the as your entry.
Trixi
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#16 User is offline   antonylee 

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Posted 2014-November-04, 04:21

Quick looks at it suggests two top clubs, if 5-1 then diamond to the... 9? Then squeeze West in the minors on the run of hearts.
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#17 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2014-November-04, 20:34

View Postzenbiddist, on 2014-November-04, 01:57, said:


Thanks everyone. What about this hand? Similar themes - came up two days ago. Lots of really pretty possibilities. Keen to hear what other people think:
6NT South, 9 led (matchpoints)
Ps: So , works when clubs are 4-2, but there are other possibilities. How do people think about this hand? It's quite juicy IMO.PPs: I'm aware my 4NT bid was probably not going to be interpreted as quant, but that was my excuse for being in the tight slam i was probably going to end up in :)

View Postantonylee, on 2014-November-04, 04:21, said:

Quick looks at it suggests two top clubs, if 5-1 then diamond to the... 9? Then squeeze West in the minors on the run of hearts.

I like antonylee's line
Win cheaply discarding a
Cash Q. Lead 3.
If LHO follows low then finesse 9 (In case LHO has made a mistake).
If LHO inserts T or J, then cover and if RHO shows out then finesse 8
If RHO does not return a then reduce to this 4-card ending with the lead in dummy and lead J
If 5 is not a winner then you need some luck in .
If 5 is good, then discard 9 and cash 5 for a double squeeze.

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#18 User is offline   navahak 

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Posted 2014-November-05, 10:33

Duck the first trick. After spade continues A,AK,AKQ,K and then ruff a spade.

If it looks like opponents know about attitude to first trick and RHO's card looks like discouraging then better to win first trick and play like previous posters have proposed.
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#19 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-November-05, 10:45

dbl post pls delete
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#20 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-November-05, 10:46

View Postzenbiddist, on 2014-November-04, 01:57, said:

Thanks everyone. What about this hand?



Testing the clubs seems normal. If they break 5-1 an endplay on East cannot work on any scenario, so I think I'd go for the "run 8" line.
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