hrothgar, on 2014-September-17, 07:12, said:
Look at the conditional probability that you hold a 16 count opposite an invite.
If you can't accept with a maxed out hand with lots of good intermediaries, you're never going to get to accept.
You are right, with this hand our hcp expectation for opener is
Frequency :
12 - 9% (we upgrade for 5-card suits and 10s)
13 - 28%
14 - 36%
15 - 20%
16 - 7%
17 - <0%
hrothgar, on 2014-September-17, 07:12, said:
QJ tight in diamodns doesn't worry me much. Partner should have supporting honors and length in the suit.
I agree. Unfortunately in this case he had
♦AK tight.
kenrexford, on 2014-September-17, 14:17, said:
As to what 4NT means, and as suggested earlier, there should be some pattern expectation as to the 4NT call.
We had MSS available, and could handle a 5332 shape. Responder was 3=4=2=4, both 4-card suits being Qxxx.
ggwhiz, on 2014-September-17, 14:29, said:
I get to accept conditionally with this. After 4nt we respond straight Aces to accept unless we are off two (5nt ends the auction then). After that, the 4nt bidder can bid 4-card suits up the line (as we do too) to check for a 4-4 fit or land in 6nt when we don't find one or just blast into 6nt as they choose.
With 2+ Aces, after 4nt I can go this route trying to land in a 4-4 instead of 6nt or blast into 6 of a 5-card suit if I have one expecting pard to convert to 6nt when appropriate.
Whatever you play, only having a choice of 6nt or pass over 4nt sucks.
I like this. Would have saved us from 6NT missing two aces.