schi0, on 2014-June-19, 04:02, said:
P's x shows 12+ Hcp balanced rather weak in !D, a stronger hand with a good own suit is highly unlikely, anyway we should count max 7-8 losing tricks in P's hand
our hand counts 12 Hcp and 6 Losing tricks which makes game in spades certain and slam a possibility
the priority is to describe accurately and immediately our hand and cut opponents any chance to exchange information
options:
X - typically shows 8-10 Hcp and defensive values
bid at 1 level shows a 4-5 card suit and "some" values 4-8 Hcp,
jump bid would show a 4 card suit and 9-11 points
double jump would show a 6 card suit and less than game going values 8-10 Hcp
none of the above match our hand which leaves us with two options: jump to game or cuebid
at this point we should judge our chances for game versus slam
counting Hcp in opps hands shows that RHO probably has a max of 3 Hcp, in this situation his 2!C bid shows 6+ clubs with K or QJ10 ,shortness in !S, and probably 2 diamonds, alternately may be a lead directing bid showing A!C and 5!c, however counting points rather discredits this alternative
therefore, LHO shoud have KJxxxx in diamonds, and some values in Hearts,
P is very likely to have 2 small diamonds, 4 Hearts, 4 Clubs and 3 Spades
versus a hand like:
!S: Kxx
!h: KQxx
!D: xx
!C: KJxx
would barely make game since we lose A!C, K!D and A!H
while a hand like the following makes 6!S
!S: Kxxx
!H: AQ10x
!D: x
!C: Axxx
therefore we should bid 4!S which is the most descriptive bid at this point and trust that our P will follow same line of reasoning and based on the quality of trump support, posibility to ruff Diamonds, control of Hearts and eventualy 1st round control of clubs may bid 6!S directly
with a void in clubs I would cuebid 3!C odds for slam are higher, in the region of 50%
with better spade quality - AKJ10xx instead of AQJxxx I would cuebid 2!d, waiting for P to show A!C and stronger H suit - bidding sequence would be:
1!D -X - 2!C - 2!D (cue) -
Pas - 2!H (mostlikely , shows 4!H), Pas - 2!S (that is what I want, forcing)
3!C ( Ace of !C, slam seeking)
or alternately 4!S - (STOP, missing Ace of clubs)
I read over this rather lengthy dissertation but it seems to ignore the fact that opener began
with a 1d opening bid and then chose to x 2c so the proposed distributions appear to make no
sense in accordance with the bidding though the analysis is quite detailed and the thinking
process highly useful under different circumstances.
I also have to admit that a 1s bid seems mandatory here though I do not go quite as far as
using 7s as a transfer to 7n in order to allow p to play the hand:) because I need a quick
trip to the loo (kenrexford)