ahydra, on 2014-January-27, 12:09, said:
I can see the point about the clubs. But after (1H)-p-(4H), you would really bid 4S even at this vul, at MPs - risking -500 even opposite a reasonable collection such as xx xx QJx AQxxxx? (IMPs is a different matter, since -500 vs -420 is pennies while the gains from -200 vs -420 and +620 vs -420 make this a no-brainer)
ahydra
If my opps played a standard sort of method, I would definitely bid 4
♠ over a 4
♥ raise even in a weak field at mps. Yes, we may go for 500, or more, but how can one pass?
We lose when they can double and beat us 500 or more.....however, our 7 card suit and rho's pre-empt at least make it unlikely that anyone is doubling on trumps. They are more than welcome to double on club values
We lose when we go down at all and they weren't making. However, unless partner leads a club, we have a death holding (for defence) in hearts and our spades are too long to expect more than one trick. Thus even with a club lead, which may mean we are ruffing a slow winner for partner anyway, we need partner to take 2 defensive tricks to get a plus our way.
Meanwhile, if we make, we win, doubled or not. If we fail by one trick and they make, we win, doubled or not. if we fail by as many as 4 tricks undoubled, we win (tho in real life the best we can hope for is down 2 undoubled and down 1 is more realistic when they don't double). And if they take the push to 5 hearts, we are never worse that passing and often better (even tho we may have cost ourselves the club ruff....maybe we weren't getting it and maybe it comes back in the suit anyway).
Remember: the opps almost never lead trump on these auctions, and many times partner will have a stiff heart and 2 or more spades...most opps will have 10+ trump between them to pre-empt to the 4 level.
Meanwhile, our club void may end up golden, when they double thinking that they have club tricks.
Positing hands for partner is foolish unless you do it by way of a carefully designed simulation, since very few of us can resist the unconscious tendency to select hands that accord with our existing view.
For example, imagine Qxx x KQxx xxxxxx. Why not? Isn't that entirely consistent with the auction?
Now we probably make an overtrick
And LHO, looking at Jx Axxxx AJx AKx doubles and his partner with x KJxxx xx QJxxx has no reason to pull.
Btw, another tendency many of us have, when deciding not to bid due to the risk involved, is to assume, consciously or otherwise, that the opps will go right every time we give them a problem in the auction. The reality is that even the best opps will go wrong some of the time.
When I learned to play bridge, the best experts in my part of the world stressed the importance of not going for numbers: in essence, of not making mistakes. That was a long time ago and for the past 30 years or so there has been an emphasis on looking instead at trying to cause the opps to make mistakes: and that is accomplished by pressure bridge. Passing 4
♥ is an attempt to avoid disaster.....bidding 4
♠ is an attempt to score big. The history of top-flight bridge over the past 30+ years reveals that the aggressive stance is the better.
Btw, the considerations change opposite a strong club pair, since RHO could be a balanced 4432 type of hand, with 12-14 hcp, rather than the assumed preemptive hand one expects in standard bidding.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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