[ahydra]

This is a puzzle for improving players - experts please let them have a shot first [unless you can see I've messed up the problem ]

I rate myself as an Advanced player, so really should have got this hand right yesterday at the club.

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Maybe 3H was an overbid, but ah well. West leads out two top clubs then switches to the ♥10. How do you maximise your chances of making the contract? If you play the ♦Q, West will win the ♦A and return a spade.

ahydra

[Mbodell]

They say one way to get better in the play is to bid to bad contracts, so that's half there.

[Mbodell]

I did think this looked interesting, but no tries yet in more than a day. I'm not sure I see the trick, but here's my line:

Spoiler

play low heart to the A, now the diamond Q. If west wins and plays a spade I'll play low. If east wins and plays a spade I'll play the A. I'll now play the 7 of hearts to the Q, hoping for 2-2 trumps and the 3-4 as a late entry (I'm guessing, if there is a trick, it is keeping the 3 of hearts as possible transportation to the 4 - I usually, but not always, do that at the table). Assuming trumps split 2-2 I can ruff a diamond, cross in trump, and run diamonds from the top hoping the J falls from a three card suit. All that I need is 2-2 hearts and 4-3 diamonds with the J in the 4. That is about 40% * 62% * 3/7 which is a little over 10%. I have slight extra chances if west is in and breaks spades from the J but not K, as that may setup an extra trick and entry and let me make on 1-3 hearts and also on 4-3 diamonds with the J in the long hand and 5-2 diamonds with the J short, but that is not that likely.

[Antrax]

Quote

play low heart to the A, now the diamond Q. If west wins and plays a spade I'll play low. If east wins

...then you're down, having lost a diamond, a spade and two clubs.
It's an interesting problem but I can't for the life of me see how to avoid a spade loser.

[CamHenry]

Antrax, on 2013-August-09, 03:28, said:

...then you're down, having lost a diamond, a spade and two clubs.
It's an interesting problem but I can't for the life of me see how to avoid a spade loser.

I think you're misunderstanding the plan. My reading was:
- lose two clubs
- win the ♥ switch in hand
- lead the ♦Q
- when LHO wins, play small on the spade and win cheaply in hand, then cross to a high trump, play ♦K and ruff a ♦, hoping the ♦J drops in 3 rounds so we've set up 3 ♦ cards for ♠ discards, or that LHO's spade holding included the J but not the K.

- if RHO wins the ♦Q and returns a spade, win the A, then continue as before.

[ahydra]

Solution (CamHenry pretty much has it):

Spoiler

You can create two dummy entries - one to ruff a diamond and one to cash diamonds - by ruffing a diamond with the ♥7/8/9 and later play the ♥3 to the ♥4. Then if the DJ drops you have three spade discards. I spotted this at the table - right after I ruffed a diamond with the ♥3

ahydra

[Mbodell]

Antrax, on 2013-August-09, 03:28, said:

...then you're down, having lost a diamond, a spade and two clubs.
It's an interesting problem but I can't for the life of me see how to avoid a spade loser.

Sorry, as CamHenry read that obviously means low from the board and won cheaply in hand. It is a contingency if RHO leads from the J that gives extra chances. I think the lead from the J is more likely than from the K, and moreover, winning the Q later leads to more good stuff than just a trick, so that's my plan.