Posted 2013-January-06, 10:27
I think RHO is very likely to have ♦10. It's unlikely that LHO would lead a diamond from a holding like 108xx, which could easily pick up East's queen. Furthermore, if he has done that, he's also led a non-systemic card.
I agree with playing a heart at trick two. If clubs are worth five tricks, they'll still be worth five tricks later in the play. If I cross to dummy and take a club finesse, then set up four tricks in the suit, against best defence I'll still need LHO to have both heart honours. (There might instead be a double squeeze with spades as the pivot, but they can play a spade back to break that up.)
If I run ♥9 and it loses, I'm still well placed. I can win the black-suit return and test the diamonds before deciding which round-suit finesse to take.
With the play as it went, after ♥9 wins I'll play another one. Suppose that's covered by an honour and won in dummy as RHO follows. If hearts are 3-3 it doesn't matter what I do now. If the both hearts and clubs are 4-2 with the club right, again it doesn't matter which suit I play next. If the club finesse is wrong, I still have the chance of clubs 3-3, so I now switch to clubs. I don't have any squeeze chances in this line, because they can play back a diamond to force me to cash my winners in the wrong order, but I can't see any way to cater for the squeezes as well as everything else.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn