[wyman]

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IMPs. Lead ♦3, 4th. Opps are I/A. Best line for 9?

[quiddity]

I haven't done any math but it feels right to attack hearts immediately.

[wyman]

I put the HQ on the table as well (this was given to me as a problem, so as far as I am concerned, there is no real layout to evaluate), but two decent players played a club up and hooked a spade, so now I'm wondering if I'm nuts.

[ArtK78]

Clearly, the opps cannot take 5 tricks off the top if you attack hearts first, so that is best.

If hearts don't produce a 9th trick, you can always fall back on the spades or the clubs depending what happens after you attack hearts.

[BunnyGo]

I agree with Art--I don't see what attacking hearts doesn't do that attacking a black suit does. It seems we can fall back on a black suit hook or 3-3 clubs later.

[mikeh]

I'd play a club up and advance the spade 10.

Playing on hearts scores big if the 10 comes down doubleton: not a high percentage. In the meantime, we are probably establishing 3 tricks for them. Yes, they have those coming anyway, but non-expert opps tend not to make expert plays, so maybe LHO will never lead from Kx(x) or Ax(x), K10xx etc.

If the hearts don't generate a trick, then we are having to take repeated black finesses and we are down if they both lose.

Meanwhile: cross in clubs, lead the spade 10.

If it is covered, we claim. So assume it is ducked.

If we think that LHO would rarely be able to duck smoothly, and he has played smoothly, repeat the spade hook. However, I would be far more inclined to switch horses now and revert to clubs.

LHO made a passive lead. Maybe LHO had nothing or maybe only one black card, but restricted choice suggests that he may well have both black cards. With 2 blank suits, he might lead either one. With only diamonds as empty, he had to lead that.

And ducking the K when the 10 is run isn't very demanding.

So I lead a club to the J because even if it loses, I am still cold if clubs are 3-3: I think the odds in the club suit are 70% or a little more, but I haven't tried to calculate it too finely. And in fairness, my restricted choice argument should lessen them somewhat.

You could also consider AK clubs, to pick up Q or Qx in clubs, then fall back on spades if need be. I think it is fractionally worse than my suggested play but I am not great with percentage calculations.

[ggwhiz]

oops, miscount

[quiddity]

mikeh, on 2012-December-11, 18:54, said:

I'd play a club up and advance the spade 10.

Playing on hearts scores big if the 10 comes down doubleton: not a high percentage. In the meantime, we are probably establishing 3 tricks for them. Yes, they have those coming anyway, but non-expert opps tend not to make expert plays, so maybe LHO will never lead from Kx(x) or Ax(x), K10xx etc.

If the hearts don't generate a trick, then we are having to take repeated black finesses and we are down if they both lose.

For one thing, what if the 8 comes down doubleton? Or what if it comes down on the second round because someone was dealt T8x or HT8? For another, what are you gaining by not playing on hearts? Is it just the chance that the opps will make a mistake?

[Phil]

How do you establish hearts if the T isn't doubleton?

Generally agree with MikeH here, although I think AAC, KC is probably a minor improvement. Ducking the Spade T is such an automatic play for a good player that I think you need to try to combine clances with clubs.

[quiddity]

Phil, on 2012-December-12, 01:27, said:

How do you establish hearts if the T isn't doubleton?

What is the problem? Diamond to our king, play a heart. Diamond to our queen (say), play a heart and the 8 drops. A third diamond; we win, get to the board either on this round or the next by overtaking the jack of spades, and play another heart knocking out the ten. We now have 9 tricks unless they have managed to set up a long diamond and also have the heart entry to cash it.

It is true that they can mess with our entries if RHO wins the first heart and switches to a black suit but that's not necessarily an easy play - it could be right to continue diamonds. Anyway, let's say he wins and switches to a spade - now we get to try both black-suit finesses and we didn't have to set up 5 tricks for them by cashing the AK of clubs.

[helene_t]

ArtK78, on 2012-December-11, 15:09, said:

Clearly, the opps cannot take 5 tricks off the top if you attack hearts first, so that is best.

If hearts don't produce a 9th trick, you can always fall back on the spades or the clubs depending what happens after you attack hearts.

But if someone has ♥T in a 4-card suit (close to 50% chance), we need two entries to establish and cash the last heart. We only have a club entry - we can create a spade entry but that will cost us a spade trick and then opps have four heart tricks plus a spade trick. Edit: I see we lose only three heart tricks if the 8 falls in one of the two first tricks. So it must be right to play hearts first and if neither the 8 nor the 10 drop then switch to the below plan.

I think I start with playing all the diamonds (discarding a club and a spade) just in case one opp makes a wrong discard.

Then a club to the king and ♠T. If it loses I have an entry for the club finesse. Opps might not be able to take four heart tricks if they have to play them.