Zelandakh, on 2012-September-17, 04:34, said:
Because `expected' is ambiguous.
Suppose you bid 3N over 1N, and partner alerts, so you look down and see that actually you pulled out 3S, which is alertable. Are you banned from realising that you bid 3S rather than 3N at any point in the auction? Of course not. "Expected" must be defined based on what you bid, not on what you thought that you bid.
Expected can mean anything from "one of a range of unlikely but foreseen options", to "near certainty" depending on the context. If I am aware that once every 100,000 boards I misread the auction, and it may lead to alerting complications, it is not, strictly "unexpected" that partner "unexpectedly" alerts, because I have misbid.
If you base "expected" on what you "expect to occur", you are in crazy land, suppose you play a complex system, that has many relays, and in the last 6 outings partner has got it wrong half the time. So you have a relay sequence, which ends in a natural bid, and partner alerts all the relays and doesn't alert the natural bid which ends it. Clearly this is strong evidence that he has got the system right. By your definition, I only expected him to alert correctly half the time, so the fact that he did and therefore clearly remembers the system, is UI to me.
Suppose he has forgotten the system on every single previous occasion, then it is "unexpected" that he alerted correctly, even though it is your agreement? Thus I am surely banned from taking advantage of the shape information that I learned from the relay, since I might have been planning to discount some of it based on past history. :S Surely you can see how the game becomes unplayable under this interpretation?