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Romney vs. Obama Can Nate Silver be correct?

#1141 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 15:28

View PostTimG, on 2012-November-19, 15:25, said:

Didn't Ted Kennedy come from a rather rich background and still champion the causes of the poor? I must admit to not having any idea how he voted on any issues, but doubt that he would have voted for tax cuts for the rich and the like.

And Ted Kennedy was one of the major backers of national health insurance.
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#1142 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 15:34

View Postblackshoe, on 2012-November-18, 08:57, said:

I suspect later 20th and 21st Century Presidents are more likely to have come from rich backgrounds, though there are surely exceptions.

I believe that, when adjusted for times, our first President was also our richest President. (Kennedy came from a family with more money, but it wasn't all JFK's.)
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#1143 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 16:02

Washington may have been the richest American at the time

Ted Kennedy was often against tax cuts for the rich but he did vote for some over a very long career.

He was indeed known as the Liberal Lion.
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#1144 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 21:22

Newt Gingrich doesn't think that Romney lost because Obama showered the 47% with gifts: Newt Gingrich Says Mitt Romney's "Gifts" Comments Were "Insulting"

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"I'm very disappointed with Governor Romney's analysis, which I believe is insulting and profoundly wrong. First of all, we didn't lose Asian-Americans because they got any gifts. He did worse with Asian-Americans than he did with Latinos. This is the hardest-working and most successful ethnic group in America, okay, they ain't into gifts."

"If it had been that simple, my question would be, 'Why didn't you outbid him?' He had enough billionaire supporters, if buying the electorate was the key, he could have got all his super PAC friends together and said, don't buy ads, give gifts. Be like the northwest Indians who have gift-giving ceremonies….Go town-by-town and say, 'Come here, let me give you gifts. Here are Republican gifts.' They could have an elephant coming in with gifts on it."

Yep, an elephant can carry more gifts than a donkey...
:)
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#1145 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 21:33

I am assuming the Republican party has been ordering in bulk Christmas Greeting cards that say "We thank you for your thoughtful analysis of our recent loss, now please shut up".
Ken
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#1146 User is offline   Cthulhu D 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 23:16

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-19, 21:33, said:

I am assuming the Republican party has been ordering in bulk Christmas Greeting cards that say "We thank you for your thoughtful analysis of our recent loss, now please shut up".


I'm pretty sure they already have a big order in that go something along the lines of "Stop talking making amazingly dumb and ill informed comments about rape!"
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#1147 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 00:02

This link has some estimates of the Presidents' wealth.
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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#1148 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 09:01

Posted Image
If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#1149 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 09:25

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-19, 21:33, said:

I am assuming the Republican party has been ordering in bulk Christmas Greeting cards that say "We thank you for your thoughtful analysis of our recent loss, now please shut up".


How about something musical instead?

The problem is all inside your head
She said to me
The answer is easy if you
Take it logically
I'd like to help you in your struggle
To be free
There must be fifty ways
To fix this party.

Just slip out the hall Paul.
You weren't a good fit Mitt.
Get a new snarl Karl.
Just listen to me.
If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#1150 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 11:33

Conservative columnist David Brooks has an interesting piece about how republicans might go about recapturing the votes of sensible conservatives by adopting the positions of young writers and bloggers: The Conservative Future

Quote

By and large, these diverse writers did not grow up in the age of Reagan and are not trying to recapture it. They disdain what you might call Donor Base Republicanism. Most important, they matured intellectually within a far-reaching Web-based conversation. In contrast to many members of the conservative political-entertainment complex, they are data-driven, empirical and low-key in tone.

They are united more by a style of feedback and mutual scrutiny than by a common agenda. Some politically unorthodox people in this conversation, such as Josh Barro of Bloomberg View, Meghan Clyne of National Affairs and Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute, specialize in puncturing sentimentality and groupthink.

Since Nov. 6, the G.O.P. has experienced an epidemic of open-mindedness. The party may evolve quickly. If so, it’ll be powerfully influenced by people with names like Reihan, Ramesh, Yuval and Derek Khanna.

Indeed it would be valuable for the US if the national republicans stopped doubling down on being (to use Governor Jindal's words) "the stupid party." It's always important to have a plausible electoral choice.
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
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#1151 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 11:54

View PostPassedOut, on 2012-November-20, 11:33, said:

Conservative columnist David Brooks has an interesting piece about how republicans might go about recapturing the votes of sensible conservatives by adopting the positions of young writers and bloggers: The Conservative Future


Indeed it would be valuable for the US if the national republicans stopped doubling down on being (to use Governor Jindal's words) "the stupid party." It's always important to have a plausible electoral choice.

Recapturing the votes of sensible conservatives? Surely those votes did not go to the Democrats in the last election.

While I can understand why "sensible conservatives" would not be happy with the choices provided to them by the Republican Party, I am sure that they went into the voting booths, held their noses and voted Republican.

[BTW, I guess that "sensible conservative" means something entirely different than "severely conservative"]
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#1152 User is offline   dwar0123 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 12:35

View PostArtK78, on 2012-November-20, 11:54, said:

Recapturing the votes of sensible conservatives? Surely those votes did not go to the Democrats in the last election.

While I can understand why "sensible conservatives" would not be happy with the choices provided to them by the Republican Party, I am sure that they went into the voting booths, held their noses and voted Republican.

[BTW, I guess that "sensible conservative" means something entirely different than "severely conservative"]

I identified as a Republican up until Bush's invasion of Iraq. The ensuing years and the frequent 'doubling down on stupid' have only furthered my disgust. I did not hold my nose, I vomited violently and voted democratic.

I feel much better getting all that sickness out, but I would still feel even better if the Republican party started to appeal to sensible conservatives, though at this point I would personally be a very hard sale.
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#1153 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 13:35

View PostArtK78, on 2012-November-20, 11:54, said:

Recapturing the votes of sensible conservatives? Surely those votes did not go to the Democrats in the last election.

I'm conservative, but cannot vote for "the stupid party." I voted for Obama. I voted for Debbie Stabenow for senator. And I voted against the tea party guy who represents my my district. On the local level, of course, I voted for several republicans and several democrats.

My congressional district (Michigan 1st) was one of those redrawn to help the republican (tea party) candidate, and he did win by a very narrow margin. We had to wait a couple of days to be sure of the result.

Republican Pete Hoekstra ran against Debbie Stabenow, but he was too extreme to get my vote (nor did he get many others). For example, he believes that state legislatures should choose senators as the founding fathers originally established. (He would have been our senator, had that been the case.)
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The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#1154 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 14:47

View PostPassedOut, on 2012-November-20, 13:35, said:

Republican Pete Hoekstra ran against Debbie Stabenow, but he was too extreme to get my vote (nor did he get many others). For example, he believes that state legislatures should choose senators as the founding fathers originally established. (He would have been our senator, had that been the case.)

Does he also believe that only the landed gentry should be allowed to vote, and that blacks should count only as 3/5 of a person for enumeration purposes?
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#1155 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 15:38

View PostArtK78, on 2012-November-20, 14:47, said:

Does he also believe that only the landed gentry should be allowed to vote, and that blacks should count only as 3/5 of a person for enumeration purposes?

Can't say. I didn't look that far into Pete Hoekstra's "qualifications."
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#1156 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 17:02

Yoopers ITT!
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#1157 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-December-01, 15:33

When Internal Polls Mislead, a Whole Campaign May Be to Blame By NATE SILVER December 1, 2012

Posted Image
Posted Image

Quote

the seeming inaccuracy of Mr. Romney’s internal polls ought to present a warning to future campaigns. The problems with internal polls may run deeper than the tendency for campaigns to report them to the public in a selective or manipulative way. The campaigns may also be fooling themselves.

Our self-perceptions are very often more optimistic than the reality; 80 percent of people think they are above-average drivers, for example.

These problems can be worse when we join together to form businesses or organizations. Honest self-assessment is a challenge for any business, and it is one reason that management consultants are sometimes engaged at considerable expense to provide a supposedly more objective and unbiased take on the state of the organization’s operations. (Much of Mr. Romney’s success in business, of course, came precisely because he was able to identify companies whose organizational cultures prevented them from functioning efficiently.)

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#1158 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2012-December-01, 16:40

80% of people may think they are above average drivers. If so, and we assume the other 20% of people are right in thinking they're below average drivers, then 62.5% of the 80% are right - they are better than average. Not sure what that conclusion means, though. B-)
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#1159 User is offline   mycroft 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 11:50

Well, by survey, 90% of bridge players are better than their partners (to pull out the old joke).

I believe I am an above-average driver. Please note, I didn't say "great"...or even "good". Just "above-average".
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#1160 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 18:30

All of which reminds me of the also old, and possibly true story: A first grade teacher, at the beginning of the year, sent home forms for the parents to fill out. One question was whether the parents woould describe the child as a leader. One mother wrote that her son really showed little interest in being a leader but was a friendly and cooperative child. She got a not back from the teacher that the first grade class consisted of 23 leaders and her son.
Ken
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