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Guessing trumps
#1
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Posted 2012-June-07, 14:07
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
-- Bertrand Russell
-- Bertrand Russell
#2
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Posted 2012-June-07, 15:43
I admit I'd hook like 100% of the time against a non-expert.
Against an expert:
If he plays the Q 100% of the time from Q10, then you should play for the drop. If he plays it 0% of the time, you should hook. Of course, the expert knows that, and can adjust so that he plays the Q the right percentage of the time so that it's a guess.
So your best guess could be based on what level you think the expert is on (or what he thinks you're on, etc.). My gut says that an average expert would play the Q too much of the time, so you should try to drop the 10. Basically, he'd have to believe that you'd believe that partner led the J from QJx to ever make the 10 right, so I think he'd compensate and play the Q way more than he should, which gives you no info, and you should just do the normal thing and play for 2-2.
Against an expert:
If he plays the Q 100% of the time from Q10, then you should play for the drop. If he plays it 0% of the time, you should hook. Of course, the expert knows that, and can adjust so that he plays the Q the right percentage of the time so that it's a guess.
So your best guess could be based on what level you think the expert is on (or what he thinks you're on, etc.). My gut says that an average expert would play the Q too much of the time, so you should try to drop the 10. Basically, he'd have to believe that you'd believe that partner led the J from QJx to ever make the 10 right, so I think he'd compensate and play the Q way more than he should, which gives you no info, and you should just do the normal thing and play for 2-2.
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#3
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Posted 2012-June-07, 16:08
wyman, on 2012-June-07, 15:43, said:
I admit I'd hook like 100% of the time against a non-expert.
Against an expert:
If he plays the Q 100% of the time from Q10, then you should play for the drop. If he plays it 0% of the time, you should hook. Of course, the expert knows that, and can adjust so that he plays the Q the right percentage of the time so that it's a guess.
So your best guess could be based on what level you think the expert is on (or what he thinks you're on, etc.). My gut says that an average expert would play the Q too much of the time, so you should try to drop the 10. Basically, he'd have to believe that you'd believe that partner led the J from QJx to ever make the 10 right, so I think he'd compensate and play the Q way more than he should, which gives you no info, and you should just do the normal thing and play for 2-2.
Against an expert:
If he plays the Q 100% of the time from Q10, then you should play for the drop. If he plays it 0% of the time, you should hook. Of course, the expert knows that, and can adjust so that he plays the Q the right percentage of the time so that it's a guess.
So your best guess could be based on what level you think the expert is on (or what he thinks you're on, etc.). My gut says that an average expert would play the Q too much of the time, so you should try to drop the 10. Basically, he'd have to believe that you'd believe that partner led the J from QJx to ever make the 10 right, so I think he'd compensate and play the Q way more than he should, which gives you no info, and you should just do the normal thing and play for 2-2.
Is playing the T from QT ever correct?
It's late here, but it seems to me that it is protecting the parlay of partner having made a deceptive lead, and you exposing it for unlikely gain.
When you see the J led, don't you want to play the "known" card. Isn't playing the T a huge position to take?
I must be missing something obvious.
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#4
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Posted 2012-June-07, 17:56
it makes zero sense to lead J from JTx and give declarer a chance to pick up a trump suit
that has a sure loser (or 2) if P has a stiff K or Q. Play for the drop period no matter who
you are playing against (though a beginner might make such a mistake)
that has a sure loser (or 2) if P has a stiff K or Q. Play for the drop period no matter who
you are playing against (though a beginner might make such a mistake)
#5
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Posted 2012-June-08, 06:04
8 ever, 9 never
#6
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Posted 2012-June-08, 16:32
Easy one. Against experts or rabbits, you play for the drop. There's the vacant spaces thingy and if trumps are 2-2, 4♥ may well be down.
#7
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Posted 2012-June-08, 20:41
would anyone decent really lead the jack from jtx? admittedly j from jx isn't very appetising either but much better than jtx.
#8
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Posted 2012-June-08, 22:32
Yeah no one good would ever lead the jack from JTx of trumps. But all bad players probably would. Sick 4S bid r/w!
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#9
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Posted 2012-June-08, 23:55
I would finesse and I think a good player would lead low from either JTx or Jx.
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