[gordontd]

The auction begins 1NT - 2♣* - P - 3♠
*2♣= majors

Before bidding 3♠ the player took out the stop card as required, but then hesitated before making her 3♠ bid. What (if anything) do you think is suggested by this?

In the actual case there was some dispute as to whether the hesitation had actually occurred, but for the purposes of my question assume it had been agreed.

[Cyberyeti]

 gordontd, on 2012-February-03, 05:11, said:

The auction begins 1NT - 2♣* - P - 3♠
*2♣= majors

Before bidding 3♠ the player took out the stop card as required, but then hesitated before making her 3♠ bid. What (if anything) do you think is suggested by this?

In the actual case there was some dispute as to whether the hesitation had actually occurred, but for the purposes of my question assume it had been agreed.

Could suggest several things:

3♠ or 4♠
having trouble remembering which 2 suited arrangement was being played (was going to bid 3♦, or wondered how many spades guaranteed)

what it definitely isn't with the stop card pulled early is 2♠ or 3♠ so I would say that it suggests bidding on.

[gnasher]

Before answering, we should find out what other options she had besides raising spades directly. I'll assume that you did that and it didn't produce anything relevant.

She might have been choosing between 3♠ and 4♠, or she might have been considering changing her mind and bidding only 2♠. Either is possible, but the former seems more likely. The sequence of thoughts "This is an invitation; no, maybe it's worth game" seems more believable than "This is an invitation; no, maybe it's not good enough." I'm not sure if that passes the test of demonstrably suggesting 4♠ over pass, though.

[WellSpyder]

How often does this partnership play together and when did this sequence last come up? What does this player play 2♣ as in other partnerships? My suspicion is that the most likely reason for a hesitation here is a sudden panic over whether she has remembered the system correctly!

Maybe she was going to bid 3♥ thinking it was showing ♥ and a minor and then realised in time. Or maybe she was always planning on bidding 3♠ and then worried for a moment whether partner was really showing spades. At the end of the day, I'm not convinced anything is really demonstrably suggested.

[jvage]

As Gnasher said, find out if there were other options.

One option not mentioned would be to bid 2♦ (initially for preference), planning to bid 2♠ over 2♥ and raising 2♠ to 3, showing an invitational hand. If she suddenly remembered this relatively common (at least among experts) agreement she might have seconds thoughts about 3♠, perhaps thinking it was an overbid or fearing it could be taken as preemptive. If so the UI does not suggest much apart from it being invitational, which may (but need not) have already been obvious.

[billw55]

Maybe she was just observing the stop card delay

[AlexJonson]

If there was an agreed hesitation, you could just ask the player. Apart from the suggestions so far, a temporary blackout is possible - thinking 'raise spades' while seeing a club bidding card opposite on the table.

Without any help, I would agree that it is 3 or 4 spades on the balance of probabilities. Then I'd ask about the assumed hand values opposite for the invite.

[wank]

obviously the answer is nothing

[lamford]

 gnasher, on 2012-February-03, 05:29, said:

I'm not sure if that passes the test of demonstrably suggesting 4♠ over pass, though.

I don't think it is any different to the auction 1S - (Pass) - 3S (slow). I hate to keep agreeing with wank, but his answer of "obviously nothing" is quite close to the mark.

[WellSpyder]

 lamford, on 2012-February-03, 11:09, said:

I don't think it is any different to the auction 1S - (Pass) - 3S (slow).

But might there not be a difference between 1S - (Pass) - ...pause...stop 3S, and 1S - (pass) stop ....pause.... 3S?

[barmar]

 WellSpyder, on 2012-February-03, 11:25, said:

But might there not be a difference between 1S - (Pass) - ...pause...stop 3S, and 1S - (pass) stop ....pause.... 3S?

It probably depends on whether you play 3♠ as limit or preemptive. If it's preemptive, he might pause to decide between 3 and 4.

If it's limit, perhaps he's borderline between limit and Jacoby 2NT.

[pooltuna]

it is not obvious to me whether the hesitation is between 2♠ & 3♠ or 3♠ & 4♠

[bluejak]

I think hesitation - stop - 3♠ could be either 2 v 3, or 3 v 4, but I think stop - hesitation - 3♠ is considerably more likely to be 3 v 4. So I think it suggests going on on a borderline hand.

[MickyB]

 lamford, on 2012-February-03, 11:09, said:

I don't think it is any different to the auction 1S - (Pass) - 3S (slow). I hate to keep agreeing with wank, but his answer of "obviously nothing" is quite close to the mark.

It is very considerate of you to keep agreeing with Wank, it means the rest of us get to disagree with you both simultaneously

The player may have reached for the stop card without having decided whether she was bidding 3S or 4S. This isn't true of 2S vs 3S. Also, if she was intending to bid 3S and then had second thoughts, she is more likely to have put the stop card away before considering the matter further if her alternative bid was 2S.

[bluejak]

 MickyB, on 2012-February-03, 14:35, said:

It is very considerate of you to keep agreeing with Wank, it means the rest of us get to disagree with you both simultaneously

[wank]

 MickyB, on 2012-February-03, 14:35, said:

The player may have reached for the stop card without having decided whether she was bidding 3S or 4S. This isn't true of 2S vs 3S. Also, if she was intending to bid 3S and then had second thoughts, she is more likely to have put the stop card away before considering the matter further if her alternative bid was 2S.

more likely? yes. demonstrably suggests anything? no

[TimG]

I don't think stop card followed by a hesitation means the thinker had first reduced her options to skip bids and then hesitated to consider which skip bid. I think it means she had decided to bid something that was a skip bid and then hesitated to reconsider her bid.

Unlike others, I don't imagine the choices are exclusively between 2♠/3♠ and 3♠/4♠. Rather I think it quite likely that the bidder hesitated because she had doubt that 2♣ did indeed show majors rather than something else. Something like: I'm going to bid 3♠, place the stop card on the table, reach toward the 3♠ bidding card, OH WAIT does 2♣ show clubs and hearts??, no that's with another partner, where is that 3♠ card? etc.

[dburn]

Some years ago I wrote words to this effect: the slower a call, the less happy the player making it is with the notion that it should be the final call in the auction. Some years later I see no reason to disagree with myself.

[barmar]

I don't understand the people saying the decision is probably between 3 and 4. Are preemptive double raises the norm in the UK?

[gordontd]

 MickyB, on 2012-February-03, 14:35, said:

Also, if she was intending to bid 3S and then had second thoughts, she is more likely to have put the stop card away before considering the matter further if her alternative bid was 2S.

I've never seen anyone do this, and think it's most unlikely that they would put away the stop card until they have finally decided that they are not going to make a jump bid.