lamford, on 2012-January-30, 19:25, said:
3♣ was undiscussed, obviously. The poll by Frances had "Many of the respondents thought that partner's 3C bid was not necessarily particularly strong but if so was very distributional." Exactly my arguments to the AC, with "not" substituted for "so". If 3C is not game-forcing, your whole argument breaks down. How then can Pass of 3H be forcing?
You seem to have conveniently ignored the main finding of Frances's poll:
FrancesHinden, on 2012-January-29, 05:40, said:
Following the ruling, I did a poll of a number of players I considered approximately peers of South (some rather better, some rather worse, no-one has an exact peer) together with a few much better ones. I tried quite hard not to ask too many people in my 'circle' whom I would often expect to agree with me. Another EBU referee who had been shown the hand did a poll of a group of 'county players' on his mailing list; I recognised most of the names and would also consider them, if not exact peers, at least similar in ability and experience. Both polls were carried out under my instructions:
- They were given the South hand, the vulnerability, form of scoring and identity of the opponents
- They were told that uncontested 1S-1NT-3C was game forcing, but that this auction was undiscussed
- They were asked if they agreed with the pass over 3Cx, and then, if so, or if they were prepared to live with it, what they would do on the next round.
- Polls were sent bcc i.e. no-one could see what anyone else said (this is a very important point)
- None of them had seen or played the hand
The results of the poll were as follows:
Pass: 1
3S: 14
Double: 1
4C: 1
Disagree strongly with pass on the previous round, would have bid 3D: 4 (of whom one would now pass, 2 would now bid 3S and one would now bid 4C)
So 16 out of 17 thought that either Opener's Pass was forcing or else Responder's hand was too strong to pass the hand out.
lamford, on 2012-January-30, 19:25, said:
One final point; as Dburn wrote in May 2011, "One uses a poll not to determine what the methods of a partnership are, but to determine what logical alternatives exist given that the methods of the partnership are what they are." In this case, that has to be the methods the partnership thinks they would be. I told the TD when he arrived that I did not regard 3C as game-forcing, nor did I regard 3H as forcing. I asked partner today what she would bid in my authorised auction (if 1NT were natural) with something like AK10xx x xx AK10xx and she said "3C, but we probably need some methods here", before realising that they would not apply. She would not regard 3H in my authorised action as forcing." How our partnership would play 3C, and Pass over 3H, in the authorised auction should not be decided by a poll of what others would play.
As you point correctly point out, you and your partner had no specific agreement about the meaning of 1
♠-dbl-1NT-P-3
♣. When guessing the meaning of an undiscussed bid, people usually consider how the bid might generally be played. [If I had been on the AC, I would have asked North/South the meaning of 1
♠-P-1NT-P-3
♣ in their methods.]
In your own poll there was only one vote for a jump to 3
♣ on that hand (compared with 17 votes for jumping to 3
♣ on hands at least a working queen stronger). That seems a fair indication of what you could reasonably expect partner to hold based on the authorised auction. The fact that you have apparently found out a week later that your partner "would have bid 3
♣" on such a weak hand over a natural 1NT is not really relevant: at the time you could not have known that.
This leads to a point which even dcrc2 may find instructive, if he is still reading our "should be private" discussions. Consider this scenario:
A player has UI, telling him that partner has not interpreted his bid as the player had intended.
The partner now makes a bid which is undiscussed in the authorised auction, but must logically have either meaning A or meaning B.
In the absence of UI, the player would have been able to guess whether meaning A or meaning B had been intended and choose his subsequent auction accordingly.
However, because the player has UI, in order to "carefully avoid taking any advantage" of the UI, he must assume whichever of meaning A and meaning B is more likely to make the earlier misunderstanding cause the auction to get out of hand.
In the present case, it is very convenient for South to assume a weaker meaning for 3
♣ because that gives him an excuse to avoid getting to a silly contract. South knows that if he assumes the (normal) stronger meaning for 3
♣ and has to keep the auction open, there is likely to be ambiguity about the meaning of subsequent bids, becase of the partners being on different wavelengths from the earlier auction.