[kgr]

---

6♦ or 7♦ would have been better contracts, but we arrived at 6♥
(You can comment on the bidding, but I'm most interested in the play first. About the bidding: I preferred to show my ♥ length first and planned to bid ♦ next, but that was not possible anymore.)
West leads ♠K that you take with the A (East following with a small ♠).
Next I played ♥A and throw ♥J from North. Both opps following with a small ♥.
Is it now best to continue with:
- ♥K
- or with a small ♦ to ♦A, followed by ♣A and ♥finesse?

[gordontd]

kgr, on 2011-January-30, 03:21, said:

(You can comment on the bidding, but I'm most interested in the play first. About the bidding: I preferred to show my ♥ length first and planned to bid ♦ next, but that was not possible anymore.)

I can't think why it was not possible: 3♦ rather than 3♥ would have done the trick.

[kgr]

gordontd, on 2011-January-30, 05:12, said:

I can't think why it was not possible: 3♦ rather than 3♥ would have done the trick.

I thought my sentence said that it was not possible anymore to show ♦ after I started with 3♥?
I preferred to start with 3♥ because I thought I would show a 5♥-5♦ otherwise. Or have to bid a non-forcing 4♥ to show a 6c♥. But I agree that 3♦ is better (certainly after the DBL of partner), partner will support ♥ sometime with a doubleton ♥ and no ♦.

[gnasher]

Cashing a second heart gains when LHO has three diamonds and ♥Qx. It loses when hearts are Qxxx-x, either way around.

If we ignore both the overcall and any vacant-space considerations, the chance that LHO has three diamonds and ♥Qx is roughly:
  Diamonds 3=1: 25%
  Hearts 2=3: 44%
  ♥Q in the short hand = 40%
25% * 44% * 40% ~= 4.5%

The chance of someone having ♥Qxxx is:
  Hearts 4-1: 28%
  No singleton queen: 80%
28% * 80% ~= 22%

That's such a large difference that we can assume that hearts 4-1 is more likely, without doing any more accurate calculations. Hence I would play the finesse line.

[karlson]

Seems clear to finesse.

If I'm not mistaken we're comparing lefty having ♥x vs (♥Qx+♦xxx). ♥x and ♥Qx are approximately equally likely a priori (4 cases) and 3 diamonds with lefty is only ~20%. Any empty spaces considerations will swing it even more as it's less likely the 1♠ bidder has length in both reds.

Edit after seeing gnasher's: oops, right, Qxxx with lefty is important too. Even less close.

[kgr]

gnasher, on 2011-January-30, 05:42, said:

Cashing a second heart gains when LHO has three diamonds and ♥Qx. It loses when hearts are Qxxx-x, either way around.

If we ignore both the overcall and any vacant-space considerations, the chance that LHO has three diamonds and ♥Qx is roughly:
  Diamonds 3=1: 25%
  Hearts 2=3: 44%
  ♥Q in the short hand = 40%
25% * 44% * 40% ~= 4.5%

The chance of someone having ♥Qxxx is:
  Hearts 4-1: 28%
  No singleton queen: 80%
28% * 80% ~= 22%

That's such a large difference that we can assume that hearts 4-1 is more likely, without doing any more accurate calculations. Hence I would play the finesse line.

4.78% for Diamonds 0-4
4.78% for Diamonds 4-0, but RHO would have given a Lightner DBL then. 1% is enough for 4-0
=> That leads to ~10% vs ~22% in favor of finesse?

[gnasher]

kgr, on 2011-January-30, 08:43, said:

4.78% for Diamonds 0-4
4.78% for Diamonds 4-0, but RHO would have given a Lightner DBL then. 1% is enough for 4-0
=> That leads to ~10% vs ~22% in favor of finesse?

If diamonds are 0=4 or 4=0, you will also need ♥Q to be doubleton - otherwise you will have two losers. Hence you should multiply those figures by (0.4 * 0.44).

[kgr]

gnasher, on 2011-January-30, 09:26, said:

If diamonds are 0=4 or 4=0, you will also need ♥Q to be doubleton - otherwise you will have two losers. Hence you should multiply those figures by (0.4 * 0.44).

Yes, right.
I played ♦ and LHO had ♦ void and RHO had ♥Qx.
My teammates said it was obvious to play ♥AK

[FrancesHinden]

Just tell your teammates you were one off in 7D

[gnasher]

I can think of something else that you might tell your teammates.

[HeartA]

kgr, on 2011-January-30, 05:39, said:

I thought my sentence said that it was not possible anymore to show ♦ after I started with 3♥?
I preferred to start with 3♥ because I thought I would show a 5♥-5♦ otherwise. Or have to bid a non-forcing 4♥ to show a 6c♥. But I agree that 3♦ is better (certainly after the DBL of partner), partner will support ♥ sometime with a doubleton ♥ and no ♦.

3♥ was very wrong. With 6-5, you always bid 2nd suit at second chance (bid it again at 3rd chance). Or else you would never be able to show the 5-card suit.

[Free]

Yeah, we had a very weird auction (imo) and ended up in 6♦ instead of 7♦. Your team mates were a bit more aggressive, they raised ♠! Why didn't you open this as a GF 2-suiter anyway, I thought you had the tools?

---

Imo the ♦ suit is the best suit to play once partner Doubled. We should have 9 of them, and we only need ♦A to make grand in many cases. Partner won't have 3♥, but he may have ♥Q/♣A/♠K/5♦s/... I think rebidding ♥ is a poor choice.

I believe partner was a passed hand, and I was still thinking of grand slam

EDIT: I don't believe cashing ♥AK is that much better. You'll lose against all but one 4-1 trump splits, which is more common than a ♦ 4-0 split (~26.53% vs ~9,56%).

[kgr]

Free, on 2011-January-31, 08:11, said:

Yeah, we had a very weird auction (imo) and ended up in 6♦ instead of 7♦. Your team mates were a bit more aggressive, they raised ♠! Why didn't you open this as a GF 2-suiter anyway, I thought you had the tools?

First of all, congrats again with your score.
I thought the bidding would go better by opening 1♥.
With our 2♣ structure this goes:
2♣-2♦
3♦-4♦ (3♦=GF with ♦ and a Major.)
...

Free, on 2011-January-31, 08:11, said:

---

Imo the ♦ suit is the best suit to play once partner Doubled. We should have 9 of them, and we only need ♦A to make grand in many cases. Partner won't have 3♥, but he may have ♥Q/♣A/♠K/5♦s/... I think rebidding ♥ is a poor choice.

I agree now that bidding ♦ is better than rebidding ♥

Free, on 2011-January-31, 08:11, said:

EDIT: I don't believe cashing ♥AK is that much better. You'll lose against all but one 4-1 trump splits, which is more common than a ♦ 4-0 split (~26.53% vs ~9,56%).

This is a strange way to say that cashing ♥AK is worse?

[Free]

kgr, on 2011-January-31, 11:21, said:

This is a strange way to say that cashing ♥AK is worse?

Yes