alphatango, on 2010-November-20, 11:21, said:
Submitted for general consideration.
This hand is terrifying to me. There are 3 ways to lose: We can make 6 hearts but not bid it, they can make 6 clubs and we don't sac, and we press on to 6 hearts with both going down (and in some of those cases we've already lost because they have found a good sac).
Now, some of you might be laughing at the possibility of them making, but take a look at the bidding:
Our opponents are bidding like crazy vul vs not with a max of 22 HCP, so they are quite distributional.
East has bid 2
♣ than 4
♠, when he had a negative X available. He has 11-13 black cards, IMO, for this bidding.
West freely bid 4
♦ at the 4 level missing the AKQ of the suit, then gave preference to clubs over spades. West has 10-12 cards in the minors, with 7-8 diamonds and 3-4 clubs.
Based on this bidding, I would guess that it is a likely possiblility that East has at most 1
♦, and just as likely 0. It is also very likely that West has 1 spade.
At most, I see getting this contract off one, for 200, and I think that our percentage play is therefore to bid the heart slam. I think it is even clearer at imps than matchpoints, too, because the potential loss if either slam makes is too much not to take out some cheap insurance.