[Fluffy]

depends on who runs the simulation, remember that the constrains of how LHO reopens are very important.

I believe that when LHO is reopening, pass puts us in a slightly better spot that biddign 1NT, do people agree with this?

[hanp]

Fluffy, on Sep 7 2010, 06:36 AM, said:

I believe that when LHO is reopening, pass puts us in a slightly better spot that biddign 1NT, do people agree with this?

Yes, I think that that's right.

I don't know what kind of simulation the Hog had in mind. I could make 50 hands and try to predict after each hand what will happen after 1NT and after pass, but of course this will be very subjective. We'll never agree.

[Free]

hanp, on Sep 7 2010, 12:52 PM, said:

Fluffy, on Sep 7 2010, 06:36 AM, said:

I believe that when LHO is reopening, pass puts us in a slightly better spot that biddign 1NT, do people agree with this?

Yes, I think that that's right.

I don't know what kind of simulation the Hog had in mind. I could make 50 hands and try to predict after each hand what will happen after 1NT and after pass, but of course this will be very subjective. We'll never agree.

Then try 100

[gszeszycki]

Playing Standard American You hold

Dealer: North
Vul: Both
Scoring: MP
♠
♥ Q109xxx
♦ xx
♣ Qxxxx

Too much animosity for such a simple question. I would bid 1n w/o hesiation
not becasue I am convinced it is always better but for the following reasons.

1. if P has 5 spades 1s will probably be a very poor mp score so bidding will rarely make the result much worse and could be spectacularly better.

2. I am much happier knowing p has 6+ spades if they rebid 2/3 spades even if we end up 1/2 levels higher.

3. Anything other than pass or spades from p gives a chance to improve or spectacularly improve our mp score. While the chances of p rebidding spades or pass are high (i would not be shocked to find the odds as high as 65% if someone runs a sim) remember we are in a poor spot to begin with and a bit worse wont make much difference.

4. At MP opps seem particularly aggresive in keeping people from playing 1n. This concept makes spade rebids by p as probably the only really damaging result vs pass.

[dkharty]

rduran1216, on Sep 5 2010, 11:13 AM, said:

I think pass is best regardless, but with Standard American I think pass is obvious.

So...no disrespect intended, but why exactly did you start this thread?

[the hog]

hanp, on Sep 7 2010, 06:52 PM, said:

Fluffy, on Sep 7 2010, 06:36 AM, said:

I believe that when LHO is reopening, pass puts us in a slightly better spot that biddign 1NT, do people agree with this?

Yes, I think that that's right.

I don't know what kind of simulation the Hog had in mind. I could make 50 hands and try to predict after each hand what will happen after 1NT and after pass, but of course this will be very subjective. We'll never agree.

Well Han if you could that would be good.
I am curious about this as so many want to bid. My worry, and I guess that of Free's is that if it goes 1S 1NT, how likely is opener to have a hand where he will rebid 2/3 S as opposed to a hand where you will reach a (far?), better contract?

[jdonn]

The_Hog, on Sep 7 2010, 07:32 PM, said:

hanp, on Sep 7 2010, 06:52 PM, said:

Fluffy, on Sep 7 2010, 06:36 AM, said:

I believe that when LHO is reopening, pass puts us in a slightly better spot that biddign 1NT, do people agree with this?

Yes, I think that that's right.

I don't know what kind of simulation the Hog had in mind. I could make 50 hands and try to predict after each hand what will happen after 1NT and after pass, but of course this will be very subjective. We'll never agree.

Well Han if you could that would be good.
I am curious about this as so many want to bid. My worry, and I guess that of Free's is that if it goes 1S 1NT, how likely is opener to have a hand where he will rebid 2/3 S as opposed to a hand where you will reach a (far?), better contract?

Agree with han, we have tried simming hands like this before and it proves completely subjective with everyone becoming firmly entrenched in their original views.

[hanp]

When I have the time I will do the simulation nevertheless and see what happens.

[gwnn]

rduran1216, on Sep 5 2010, 04:13 PM, said:

even in 2/1 with your partner likely to rebid spades it is risky.

I think pass is best regardless, but with Standard American I think pass is obvious.

So just pass next time and leave us alone!

[hanp]

I ran a simulation. Out of the 50 hands that were dealt, I threw out 33 because either

- the hands were not consistent with 1S-pass-,
- the opponents would bid and the auction would get too complicated, or
- I had trouble predicting how we would bid after 1S - 1NT.

On the remaining 17, partner rebid spades 10 times and each time it would have been better to pass out 1S. On the 7 hands where partner does not rebid spades and I thought I could predict the auction, bidding was better than passing 6 times.

It was too hard to say whether bidding would be better than passing, but it seems jdonn won't get much chance to laugh.

[jdonn]

hanp, on Sep 8 2010, 04:30 AM, said:

- I had trouble predicting how we would bid after 1S - 1NT.

....

[the hog]

Thanks Han. Results are not conclusive I guess.

[JLOGIC]

hanp, on Sep 8 2010, 04:30 AM, said:

I ran a simulation. Out of the 50 hands that were dealt, I threw out 33 because either

- the hands were not consistent with 1S-pass-,
- the opponents would bid and the auction would get too complicated, or
- I had trouble predicting how we would bid after 1S - 1NT.

On the remaining 17, partner rebid spades 10 times and each time it would have been better to pass out 1S. On the 7 hands where partner does not rebid spades and I thought I could predict the auction, bidding was better than passing 6 times.

It was too hard to say whether bidding would be better than passing, but it seems jdonn won't get much chance to laugh.

He can laugh at your sample size of 17 hands.

Also, much of the reason to bid with no points is to mess up the opponents bidding. It's way easier for them to bid 3N after 1S p p 1N p 3N than 1S p 1N. So throwing out hands where the opps would bid is like throwing out a good reason for bidding.

[hanp]

I know, as I said, I don't think a simulation is going to solve things. I do think that you are very unlikely to make your contract if partner rebids 2S, 3S or 4S!

[Free]

Can't we let GIB or Jack bid and play the hands? At least we'll have an objective party who hasn't seen all hands running the simulation.

[jonottawa]

I'm not sure if bidding or passing is better but I choose defending 3N over either.