[bid_em_up]

pooltuna, on Jun 28 2010, 01:54 PM, said:

it is essentially 1/3 that partner has the ♥Q

Do you really believe this?

[gwnn]

pooltuna, on Jun 28 2010, 05:54 PM, said:

it is essentially 1/3 that partner has the ♥Q

Even if I accepted that about 1/3 of people who play bridge can't discern between the ♥Q and a small ♥, he still has shown 14 hcp and it has a very low likelihood that he'd have the ♥Q as well.

[neilkaz]

bid_em_up, on Jun 28 2010, 01:59 PM, said:

.

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Assuming this is really my hand, I will convert to 6N since I can count 12 tricks. (5 hearts, 3 spades plus AK, AK in the minors) and be happy.

OK I also bid 6NT. At IMPs this guards against a freak ruff and me then being unlucky enough to not pick up the Q♥.

Note that opener's response to RKCB didn't show the Q. I'll presume that opener would have shown the Q anyhow with 4 card support since Texas then RKCB really showed have 6+ trumps. I really think opener has either 2 or 3 trumps and that makes it bad IMP odds to bid a grand.

What about MP? I think we are slight favorites to take 6 tricks if PD has 3♥ and slight underdogs if he has only 2. On balance maybe we are very tiny favorites to take 6 ♥ tricks but I'll settle happily for 6 NT noting that in a typical event I am outscoring those who stay in 6♥ and that a couple pairs may actually miss slam especially if using a higher NT range and not starting with 1NT (It may seem unbelievable to miss slam here, but we've all seen worse).

6NT since I can tolerate the lead in any side suit twice.

[Fluffy]

if the hand is online, I play grand, there is no point on claiming 12 tricks when you can just as well play 7.

If the hand was held by me last week I'd also obviously bid grand, 6 would probably fail, but grand on a finese... oh boy that is a sure thing.