[Deevan]

The following hand is from a 24 board team match; against top notch opponents.
Both Sides VUL. Your RHO bids 1NT(15-17)-P-3NT-PPP, you are on lead from:

S-T32
H-K6
D-9753
C-Q652

I wonder what is the right lead on this hand? Appreciate if the responses are grouped as follows:
1) What is the correct lead, and why?
2) Would the lead be different if CQ was C8? Rest of the hand is same.

What score (out of 100%) would you assign to each of the following leads from the given hand:
3)small S?
4)HK?
5)C2?
6)S10?

[nige1]

Deevan, on Dec 31 2009, 03:58 PM, said:

The following hand is from a 24 board team match; against top notch opponents. Both Sides VUL. ♠ T32 ♥ K6 ♦ 9753 ♣ Q652
Your RHO bids 1NT(15-17)-P-3NT-PPP
I wonder what is the right lead on this hand? Appreciate if the responses are grouped as follows:
1) What is the correct lead, and why?
2) Would the lead be different if CQ was C8? Rest of the hand is same.
What score (out of 100%) would you assign to each of the following leads from the given hand:
3)small S?
4)HK?
5)C2?
6)S10?

IMO ♠x = 100, ♠T = 90, ♣x = 80, ♦x = 70, ♥K = 40.
If ♣Q were ♣ x, then ♣x = 70.
A major is more likely to work than a minor, but ♥K is over-committal. Arguably ♠T is better than ♠x

[pooltuna]

Deevan, on Dec 31 2009, 03:58 PM, said:

The following hand is from a 24 board team match; against top notch opponents.
Both Sides VUL. Your RHO bids 1NT(15-17)-P-3NT-PPP, you are on lead from:

S-T32
H-K6
D-9753
C-Q652

I wonder what is the right lead on this hand? Appreciate if the responses are grouped as follows:
1) What is the correct lead, and why?
2) Would the lead be different if CQ was C8? Rest of the hand is same.

What score (out of 100%) would you assign to each of the following leads from the given hand:
3)small S?
4)HK?
5)C2?
6)S10?

1) I would try the ♥K as drastic measures look called for and the opps have made no effort to find a major suit fit plus I need to hit partner's suit to have a shot. In order of preference K♥>2♠>2♣>3♦

2) no change but more drastic situation

[gnasher]

1. Usually there's no such thing as the "correct" lead - there are just aggressive leads, passive leads, leads with a particular objective in mind, and default leads.

I'd lead a diamond. You don't have to go mad just because they've bid game without inviting, and you don't have to lead a major just because they didn't bid Stayman.

2. No

3/5. I can't give a numerical score, but I don't hate either.

4/6. What's the score for "ugh"?

[jonottawa]

♥K is highest variance lead, could work really well or be disastrous.

I'm a 4th best from longest and strongest here.

If ♣Q is small ♣, wow. If I can somehow randomly choose among the 4 suits without drawing suspicion to myself, I do that.

[jdonn]

Awesome, the first lead problem I can remember where the first 4 answers were 1 for each suit. Mark me down for a spade. I think a major is called for with no stayman and a hand this weak, but king of hearts is beyond too risky.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

Since you are weak, you should try to hid partners suit.
And the auction 1NT - 3NT indicates a major suit lead, since responder did
not use Stayman, and a 5 card major suit with the NT opener is of course
possible, but ..., some partnership say "NO", some say "YES", so without
any knowledge, you have at least a 50% chance, that the answer is "NO",
and otherwise, there is still the chance, that opener does not have one.

This means it is either hearts or spades, but the King of hearts is way too
speculative, and since you only have 2 hearts, spade it is.

#1 Spades
#2 No, the hand got weaker, the reason for trying to hit partner get stronger
#3 10 out of 10
what is your systemic agreement? spades gets 10, which card is a matter of
lead agreement, you want to give partner as much information as possible,
so you should stick with your agreement, and not trying to get creative.
#4 0 out of 10
#5 make it 4 out of 10
#6 see #3

With kind regards
Marlowe

[mike777]

Deevan, on Dec 31 2009, 03:58 PM, said:

The following hand is from a 24 board team match; against top notch opponents.
Both Sides VUL. Your RHO bids 1NT(15-17)-P-3NT-PPP, you are on lead from:

S-T32
H-K6
D-9753
C-Q652

I wonder what is the right lead on this hand? Appreciate if the responses are grouped as follows:
1) What is the correct lead, and why?
2) Would the lead be different if CQ was C8? Rest of the hand is same.

What score (out of 100%) would you assign to each of the following leads from the given hand:
3)small S?
4)HK?
5)C2?
6)S10?

2 of clubs


second choice close=ten of spades.


rest zero.

[nigel_k]

Basically agree with Marlowe. A spade is a bit less attacking than a heart but much less dangerous.

I'd score: ♠2 100, ♣ 70, ♥ 50, ♦ 20, ♠10 0.

I don't see a reason to consider 10♠ instead of a small one. I'm scoring it zero based on its logical merit though obviously it has a nonzero chance of success.

[Deevan]

Thanks all for your feedback, it was great. I have no idea what is "the" right lead, or the highest percentage lead!

On the table, our opponent, a BBO STAR, held this hand, and led the HK in a flash. The contract went down quickly since dummy showed up with H Qxx; and, his partner held H AJxxx, the NT opener had H xxx. Our partners, excellent players, at the other table, led a small spade. We lost a game swing.

I was hoping though to hear some comments like the following:
-Major lead becomes abundantly clear without the CQ!
-Small Spade might cause a problem; because against NT, I believe lead of a low card promises an honour. So, if partner happens to have SA and H AJxxx; he/she may not switch to H, placing a Spade honour with the leader!
-Might the HK lead be better when you find partner with QJTxx and a side A; or find partner with JT9xxx with two side entries?

Are these ideas really far fetched! or ancient! Who knows, I guess!

[nigel_k]

A ten is an honour, though that is a consequence of the way scoring works at rubber bridge rather than an analysis of which leads work best. But I think a low spade does offer better chances of establishing tricks, especially if partner gains the lead next.

[Fluffy]

I think a heart would stand out if we had 3, but having doubleton it is very hard to hit partner AND NOT delcarer as well.

Weakness asks for agresiveness, clubs and spades sound best, but clubs can hardly give us 5 tricks so I'd go with a spade.

[cherdanno]

♠=100, ♦=90, ♣=90, ♥=-10.

[hanp]

I agree with cherdano, I don't feel very strongly about spades, diamonds or clubs, but would lead a spade.

[dake50]

Are we setting this? Low chances. Now HK gains in comparison. Spectacular when right verses lost overtrick when wrong.
Gross guess: 12% Sx set; HK set 22%; HK lost set 8%.

[fred]

Warning: Professional driver on closed course

Leading the 10 from 10xx sometimes works wonders when you play Rusinow leads (where the 10 "promises" the Jack).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[bluecalm]

Quote

♠=100, ♦=90, ♣=90, ♥=-10.

Very simple and for sure imperfect simulation :
1000 hands.
S is 15-17 balanced (5majors possible, no 5-4, no 6-3-3-2)
N is 9-15 without 4card major or singleton anywhere

No. of deals where specified card is winning (setting) lead:

T♠ - 89
3♠ - 95
K♥ - 140
6♥ - 66
7/5♦ - 69
any low ♣ - 52

This strongly suggest that K♥ is at least reasonable lead.
My intuition before running this simulation was that club is the worst lead and diamond probably the best. Now tend to believe that Kh is best in the absence of strong arguments against it and some very good for it.

EDIT : I run it one more time. This time responder has either 9-15 balanced without 4+card major or 10-15 any 4-3-3-3 (including major). 10k hands. No of deals where specific card is winning lead :

T♠ - 817
3/2♠ - 823
K♥ - 1030
7/5♦ - 629
low ♣- 555

[Fluffy]

Hi, I'd like to know how much is the results influenced by our lack of strenght. ( I think ♥K is good only because we are desperate)

Could you please add ♦K to our hand and see the difference it makes?

[cherdanno]

Maybe I am underestimating how desperate we are, but let me also point out that the ♥K lead very often does not lose a trick double dummy, where it would almost certainly lose that trick single dummy. (Imagine the suit being Kx xx JT987 AQxx around the table, with declarer having AQxx.)

[Fluffy]

yeah arend, but also spade and diamond leads are giving tricks single dummy more often than they do double dummy.