[jdonn]

I usually don't do this (any more) but since you listed so many points I'll try to respond to them individually.

[quote name='gnasher' date='Dec 11 2009, 06:24 PM']- There's no harm in assuming that opponents are sane.[/quote]
Well there is some harm since they might not be, but sure let's go with it.

[quote]- If they're sane, the hearts are 6-0-3 around the table and LHO has [he]KJ10.[/quote]
West couldn't open a weak 2 vul with 'just' the KJ of hearts if his hand was otherwise appropriate?

[quote]- It's quite likely that they each have a singleton.[/quote]
I don't know what you mean by quite likely, but it's very far from certain. If there is a 70% chance in each case that the player has a singleton, that doesn't even quite reach 50% overall that both have one. Even if there is an 80% chance for each of them that is less than 2/3 for both of them.

[quote]- I probably have no entry for drawing trumps.[/quote]
That's probably true, although I'm not sure I want to. He may end up having to lead them from his hand into me in the end game.

[quote]- Whatever high cards they have outside hearts will mostly be on the right, providing convenient entries for a trump coup.[/quote]
The auction isn't over and we are already worried about a trump coup? What suit will they be running from dummy through us?

[quote]- It's not impossible that they'll take two ruffs in dummy, four ruffs in hand, two side winners, and [he]K in the ending.  How many tricks is that?[/quote]
I do agree if we pass there is a chance of more than 0% that they will make.

[quote]- It is quite hard to imagine a layout where they go for more than 500.[/quote]
I don't think it's that hard to imagine, but in any case I don't feel the need to reply since that is a conclusion not an argument.

[quote]- 3NT by our side is probably cold.  My secondary honours will both protect us against RHO's high cards and make it easy to set up partner's long cards.[/quote]
That I agree with, 3NT will usually make. But there are plenty of times it won't and I have higher hopes for at least 500 anyway.

[quote]This was the actual hand:
*hand*
As you see, both opponents were barking mad, so my first premise was incorrect.[/quote]
Totally disagree. Opener was aggressive but far from mad. And responder was not insane at all (although he was if this was their opening style, but not every partnership is experienced together).

[quote]Partner had an unbelievably good heart holding given the bidding.  The rest of my analysis was, however, reasonably accurate: we can't get more than 500 from 3[he] (eg heart to the king, spade, spade ruff, club, spade ruff, club ruff, spade), and 3NT is unbeatable, even the way that I played it.[/quote]
Partner's heart holding was great, but his hand was relatively minimum for the second double, and the opponents had the aces of both their singletons. I would say the luck is about even, so win 3 for passing.

[quote]Now let's move a couple of cards around to make the bidding more believable:
*hand*
Now everybody has their bid, more or less.  I haven't asked Deep Finesse's opinion, but it seems quite hard to beat 3[he].  3NT is, of course, still cold.[/quote]
Um, east has a clear 4[he] bid IMO. Way too good of a shot at game opposite a vul preempt.

[jonottawa]

Bah. Should have known better than to second guess gnasher on double dummy. (Worked it out myself in the meantime.)

[mikeh]

Seeing the hand doesn't persuade me.

1stly, I think we'd all expect partner to be the player most likely to hold 2 (if not 3) Aces on the auction...to find that east has both black Aces and a stiff club is more than mildly surprising. It makes no difference to argue that RHO wouldn't have bid without them... surely he'd have bid without them if he held 10xx or Jxx in trump....if only because it is so unlikely that we could or would catch them speeding. Why? Because who in their right mind opens a red v white weak two on K10xxxx.....I bet RHO wasn't expecting it! Given that just about everybody plays that an immediate double of 3♥ is takeout, and that RHO has enough values that he can expect it to often go all float....and when it doesn't, S will almost never have the trumps needed to pass.... RHO could easily hold a far less useful hand than he did...and he still went 500 with that hand!

And I am absolutely with Josh on the substitute possibility.....any RHO who knows how to play would surely bid game with the postulated hand.

[Jlall]

Gnasher,

As a general rule I only assume sanity if I know who the opps are. If they are unknown I always play them to make default bad mistakes, like not understanding vulnerability/position/spot cards/whatever when opening a preempt. Also blindly raising ANY time they have 3 trumps because of LOTT etc.

If you didn't know your opps I'd say it's a big mistake.

[wank]

jdonn, on Dec 11 2009, 06:52 PM, said:

Totally disagree. Opener was aggressive but far from mad. And responder was not insane at all (although he was if this was their opening style, but not every partnership is experienced together).

Lol. Thanks. The 3H bidder was me. I'm used to playing with people for whom a second in hand red [unfavourable in american, i believe] weak 2 is tantamount to an acol 2. this partner and i had only played about twice before.

[gnasher]

Jlall, on Dec 12 2009, 01:15 AM, said:

As a general rule I only assume sanity if I know who the opps are.

I did know who they were. Both have represented England at some level. LHO was under 25, however, so it may have been a mistake to rely on his sanity.

[Jlall]

wank, on Dec 11 2009, 07:50 PM, said:

jdonn, on Dec 11 2009, 06:52 PM, said:

Totally disagree. Opener was aggressive but far from mad. And responder was not insane at all (although he was if this was their opening style, but not every partnership is experienced together).

Lol. Thanks. The 3H bidder was me. I'm used to playing with people for whom a second in hand red [unfavourable in american, i believe] weak 2 is tantamount to an acol 2. this partner and i had only played about twice before.

Don't see how jdonn can say 2H 2nd seat red/white is anything but batshit crazy. I think 3H is ok.

[gnasher]

jdonn, on Dec 12 2009, 12:52 AM, said:

Quote

- Whatever high cards they have outside hearts will mostly be on the right, providing convenient entries for a trump coup.

The auction isn't over and we are already worried about a trump coup? What suit will they be running from dummy through us?

I was referring to the possibility of a coup en passant, rather than the type where you run winners through the defender with the trumps. Doesn't the term "trump coup" include both of these plays?

For what it's worth, the (ACBL) Encyclopedia of Bridge agrees with my usage. However, that part may have been written by Truscott, who sometimes favoured English usage despite having lived in the USA for decades.

[jdonn]

Jlall I'm not wording it too harshly but yes 2♥ is a bad bid, worse than 3♥ by a lot. But I don't think it's as hopeless as you seem to.

Gnasher you are right about the usage, and I agree that if they make it that will probably be how.