[quiddity]

I understand that partner can't tell whether we have a good hand or a bad hand. My mistake is in underestimating the chance that this information will be useful (and perhaps overestimating the chance that 4S-X will make). My assumption that RHO has a limit raise was probably incorrect, or perhaps the small chance of missing 5H outweighs the more frequent but less costly 4S-X= even if he does usually have a limit raise.

[JLOL]

I think you underestimate the chance we beat 4S, and overestimate the cost of them making 4SX.

[mikeh]

quiddity, on Apr 14 2009, 03:43 PM, said:

I understand that partner can't tell whether we have a good hand or a bad hand. My mistake is in underestimating the chance that this information will be useful (and perhaps overestimating the chance that 4S-X will make). My assumption that RHO has a limit raise was probably incorrect, or perhaps the small chance of missing 5H outweighs the more frequent but less costly 4S-X= even if he does usually have a limit raise.

Your assumption that RHO has a limit raise is probably correct... don't apologize for that.

But rho will have assumed that you have a different hand type... longer hearts, perhaps equivalent offence but far less defence... and he can hope that he will find his partner with some modest extras.

You hold far more defence than anyone else at the table can suspect... this tells you that RHO has probably guessed wrong.. as we are all wont to do under pressure. If you pass here, you are assuming that the opps went right... this is LOSING bridge.

When you bid 4♥, you were hoping that you would get to play it and that it would be a good contract OR that the opps would bid on and it would be a poor contract. Well, option 2 happened... stay with what got you here... double to be consistent. Frankly, with this hand, I am delighted to defend... I suspect that we are going to be very happy.

Imagine partner with Jxxx xx xxxx xxx... isn't this about what he rates to hold? A near yarb with (often) 4 trump? We are never making 4♥ and they are almost certainly failing in 4♠, sometimes by 2 tricks.

[cherdanno]

quiddity, on Apr 14 2009, 03:43 PM, said:

I understand that partner can't tell whether we have a good hand or a bad hand. My mistake is in underestimating the chance that this information will be useful (and perhaps overestimating the chance that 4S-X will make). My assumption that RHO has a limit raise was probably incorrect, or perhaps the small chance of missing 5H outweighs the more frequent but less costly 4S-X= even if he does usually have a limit raise.

Next time you make a 3-card limit raise, ask yourself if you would be surprised to go down at the 3-level when partner is minimum, and all suits (including trumps) are breaking badly. I think 300 or 500 is more likely than you think.

[mtvesuvius]

Partner had 9xxx x Jxxxx xxx. Oh well. -690.

[mikeh]

mtvesuvius, on Apr 14 2009, 06:10 PM, said:

Partner had 9xxx x Jxxxx xxx. Oh well. -690.

Now, that is unlucky... hearts broke 4-1 and they were able to avoid a diamond loser... ordinarily.. a heart out, cash the club Ace, heart ruff, club ruff and there we are.

As it is... well, sh*t happens... next board please.

[hanp]

I hate 4H.

Justin has makes these bids a lot when playing against me and I hate it.