[Phil]

Scoring: IMP

1S - pass - 2H - pass;
2N - pass - 3C - pass;
3N - AP

---

You lead the ♦Q, 2, 3 (UDCA), 4

You decide to continue down the diamond path, J, 5, 6, A

Declarer lays down the ♥A (7 from pard) and leads the ♥4 from hand. Split or not?

[Mosene]

Split.

[Echognome]

Based on partial analysis, I do not split.

Partner has one either the ♠A, the ♠Q, the ♣Q, or both black Qs.

If he has the ♠A (or both black Qs), then we must split, or else declarer has 3♥, 2♦, and 4♣ (or 1♠, 3♥, 2♦, and 3♣).

If he has the ♠Q, then declarer has 9 tricks with 1♠, 2♥, 2♦, and 4♣, so it doesn't matter what we do.

If he has the ♣Q, then if we split, declarer can simply win in the dummy (finding the bad news), knock out partner's ♣Q and endplay us in ♥, making 2♠, 2♥, 2♦, and 3♣. However, if we do not split, then declarer is a trick short.

I just think it's more likely partner has one queen than he has an ace or two queens.

[Mosene]

What is the most likely thing, based on the play so far, that declarer is going to do if we dont split? BTW, I don't know the answer as I can't quite figure out why declarer is sort of abandingi his hand (with maybe only spade ace left).

Also - re the endplay, can't we exit in hearts again after getting our 2 winners?

[Echognome]

Mosene, on Jan 30 2009, 01:24 PM, said:

Also - re the endplay, can't we exit in hearts again after getting our 2 winners?

Ok. It's slightly more complicated. You have to find 2 discards on the clubs. What are they? (if a diamond, then you also have to find a discard on the diamond)

It gets a bit more interesting when partner gets in and plays a spade. Haven't thought it all through (hence only partial analysis).

[awm]

I'll split. I think declarer has one of:

♠QTxxx
♥Ax
♦Axx
♣Qxx

♠AQxxx
♥Ax
♦Axx
♣xxx

In either case, if I split and declarer either ducks my trick or continues hearts, I can set him. In the first case I need to play a spade to collect three spade tricks (plus a heart and a diamond) and in the second I need to play a third diamond -- giving partner a potential trick after a club entry.

If I don't split, declarer can make by playing the heart eight. Will he? Not clear, but it is the proper play in the heart suit in isolation, and he does seem to be trying to develop a third heart trick (and he will need that third heart trick with either of the example hands).

[JLOL]

tbh I would split and not even think about it. If declarer is going to set up 1 more heart trick he is going to put in the 8 anyways (it doesnt cost). I doubt anyone would have time to figure out whether it's really right or not to split without tanking (and then who wouldn't put in the 9 lol), but on general principles it seems like it must be right.

[mtvesuvius]

JLOL, on Jan 30 2009, 05:04 PM, said:

tbh I would split and not even think about it. If declarer is going to set up 1 more heart trick he is going to put in the 8 anyways (it doesnt cost). I doubt anyone would have time to figure out whether it's really right or not to split without tanking (and then who wouldn't put in the 9 lol), but on general principles it seems like it must be right.

I completely agree. I smoothly split my honors.

[Phil]

awm, on Jan 30 2009, 04:59 PM, said:

I'll split. I think declarer has one of:

♠QTxxx
♥Ax
♦Axx
♣Qxx

♠AQxxx
♥Ax
♦Axx
♣xxx

In either case, if I split and declarer either ducks my trick or continues hearts, I can set him. In the first case I need to play a spade to collect three spade tricks (plus a heart and a diamond) and in the second I need to play a third diamond -- giving partner a potential trick after a club entry.

If I don't split, declarer can make by playing the heart eight. Will he? Not clear, but it is the proper play in the heart suit in isolation, and he does seem to be trying to develop a third heart trick (and he will need that third heart trick with either of the example hands).

Declarer had the 1st hand.

Splitting is correct, but I couldn't see where we were taking our 5 tricks. Besides, declarer seemed pretty weak, and I thought we had a legitimate shot at beating this on the heart suit alone. Declarer rises, gets the news and hooks spades into be; I was dreaming.

To be fair, I think its a clear error for pard not to play the ♦10 at T2, but I humbly took the charge.