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Easy one

#1 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-June-20, 12:31

Imps, all vul. You hold:

AT987 AJxx Jxx A.

RHO opens 1S, LHO bids 1N(forcing), RHO bids 2S. Opponents are active, and you play double is penalty. Do you X or not?
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#2 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 12:40

Yeah, I do.
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#3 User is offline   jtfanclub 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 12:47

I dunno...if I X, then LHO will pick his best minor, where we can't take as many tricks. They are vul....
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#4 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 12:51

I'd pass
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#5 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 12:52

Red card. They may have a profitable runout. But darned if I'm not going to try to get rich.
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#6 User is offline   ASkolnick 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 13:01

Pass. Keep your plus. Looks like a club runout may be very profitable.
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#7 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 14:24

No I pass. LHO will run to a minor if I double, but will likely sit out the misfit if I pass.

I had a similar hand last night in a TG. KQ9xx Qxx ATx xx. (1S) - p - (2C) - 3H - (3S) - p - (4H) - p - (4S) - ?. I passed and we got it -2. 5♣ was icy on the 6-2 - although its not 100% they would have run (but they probably would have).
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#8 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 15:47

Hit it.

I have just enough for partner to do his part and hit the minor. I especially like the Jxx in diamonds.
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#9 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 15:55

Echognome, on Jun 20 2008, 10:52 AM, said:

Red card.  They may have a profitable runout.  But darned if I'm not going to try to get rich.

We have a saying in real estate.

Sheep get sheared, pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

It essentially is the same as splitting 9's. You have something good in your possession so why throw it away on something speculative?


Fredin comes to mind... :)
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#10 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 16:46

pclayton, on Jun 20 2008, 01:55 PM, said:

Echognome, on Jun 20 2008, 10:52 AM, said:

Red card.  They may have a profitable runout.  But darned if I'm not going to try to get rich.

We have a saying in real estate.

Sheep get sheared, pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

It essentially is the same as splitting 9's. You have something good in your possession so why throw it away on something speculative?


Fredin comes to mind... :)

I'll just say I think it's a different situation. If you defeat slam, it's pretty much always going to be a good score. Here we might have something good on our way and they might be sitting ducks. What if partner can double their runout? We do have a decent hand.
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#11 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 18:24

Almost every time I have seen these "double what's in front of your face" hands, either in match reports, tough games, or my own games, double has been right. I think it is easy to overthink problems like this, when in reality, you should double because +500 is not hard to obtain, and LHO will pull less frequently than you might suspect.
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#12 User is offline   fred 

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Posted 2008-June-20, 18:33

I think you should Pass.

There are too many ways that DBL could lose.

- they might make it
- they might run to a better spot
- they might be about to bid 3S or 4S or who knows what else if you leave them alone

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#13 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-June-21, 03:17

I doubled, but I really think it is the worst thing I did all tournament, I think it is really bad for all the reasons mentioned by the passers.
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#14 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-June-21, 03:34

Just to add something else, I think that since we don't have them beat necessarily, and don't have enough HCP where we know LHO will pass, it's too much. If it was more like we have 18 points and 7 tricks in our hand, and we X hoping LHO won't run because we know we have a good penalty and they'll never make that's a different situation. Here they could be making and even when theyre not it might just be down 1 so the risk/reward is just bad all around.
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#15 User is offline   andy_h 

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Posted 2008-June-21, 04:55

I'm passing. Many things can go wrong.
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#16 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2008-June-22, 23:58

Im sure the payoff of 2Sx going down is good compare to the chance they make it, however Im not cracking unless im almost sure that we can double every higher contract. On this hand even if partner manage to X 3C i dont feel that confident.
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