Posted 2008-June-21, 12:06
This hand hinges around playing the diamonds. There are basically three lines:
1: Start with a diamond to queen. Works if 2-2 with ♦K onside or ♦K singleton onside.
2a: Start with diamond jack. Cover king with ace and plan to cash queen next.
2b: Start with diamond jack. If king covers and ♦9 or ♦T is played, finesse to 7 next.
Because of restricted choice, 2b is superior to 2a (two possible singletons versus one T9 tight).
Both lines 1 and 2b win in 4 of 16 cases. Without any additional information line 1 is a tiny bit better because 2-2 breaks are more likely than 3-1 breaks in a vacuum.
However, west made a takeout double and then raised 2♥ to 3♥. If ♥K was an honest card, he seems to be missing the ♥Q. And we need him not to hold both minor suit kings (else we have no real play). So this seems to imply that he has made a takeout double and raised partner's response to the three level on 11 hcp. He seems to have 3♠+4♥. This kind of bidding with 3433 distribution is awfully pushy, so I think we can rule out west holding ♦T9x (in fact, a singleton diamond is something of a favorite). So line 2b should be the winner here.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
1D - (Dbl - 1S - (2H)
2S - (3H) - 4S - all pass