[skjaeran]

Scoring: IMP

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After opening first in hand, later signing off as much as possible, you are at the helm in this terrible 6♣. Lead: ♥Q

What's your plan?

[han]

I'd win the heart ace and play a low club from dummy. If RHO plays an honor I'll have to guess if it was from H10 or KQ tight. Maybe the tempo will give it away.

Even if I pick up clubs for no loser I'm not done but that's for later worry. I see no reason to unblock the spade ace right away.

[655321]

♥A
♠A
Low club. If East plays a low card, duck, hoping for KQ doubleton on our left.
If East plays the K,Q or T, play him for HT doubleton.

[skjaeran]

On a low club off dummy RHO play the king in tempo.

[matmat]

i guess i could either play for some sort of HT doubleton or try to strip the hand and endplay?

not sure i can eliminate all the side suit cards tho

[mikeh]

skaeran, on Feb 10 2008, 04:07 PM, said:

On a low club off dummy RHO play the king in tempo.

This is a spy v spy situation, in which I am not sure that there is any clearly superior line, since I think RHO's best approach with all relevant holdings is to apply a mixed strategy.

Against a non-expert, I'd play for the drop for two reasons: one is that I'd expect a break in tempo quite often if he held K10. The other is that I'd expect the non-expert to be non-random with KQ tight... since he would not often think of the Q from Q10 tight, he won't think that I'd play him for that holding if he played the Q, so with KQ tight he'd almost always play the K... he'd think that playing the Q would be a give-away of KQ tight. Sort of a restricted choice, but based on my expectation of how I think a non-expert RHO would think.

Against an expert, I think this is basically a pure guess. I think that an expert RHO would apply a mixed strategy with all relevant holdings... note that the 10 from H10 affords me the option of playing LHO for HHxx, while the H from H10 affords me the options of HH tight or H10 tight, and he should play K or Q randomly from KQ tight. It is the ability to play the 10 from H10 that, in my view, means that it is not now a restricted choice scenario.

I will run the J against a real expert, because it is esthetically more pleasing, not because I think it has any greater expectation of success than playing for the drop.. I think they are equivalent.

I am not happy with my analysis and could, I suspect, be readily persuaded that I am in error.

[han]

I believe you have to run the jack here against perfect opponents. With H10 they have to play the honor as the 10 would leave you with no losing options. As there are two H10's holdings and one KQ tight holding.

However, I also believe that Fred once explained on this forum that if dummy had the club 8 then you should play for KQ tight. The difference is that here it would make sense for responder to play the 10 from 10x.

In practice you can often read the situation so I would not always go with the percentage play.

[gnasher]

The best line might depend on the auction. If RHO knows that you have no key cards, he is more likely to play the queen from Q10, making the intrafinesse more attractive.

[skjaeran]

As for the auction, declarer was known to hold no keycards.

RHO held KT in trumps. If you got past that hurdle you had to bring in diamonds, knowing LHO to have 3 trumps and QJ 4th or 5th in hearts. RHO held Jxx in diamonds, so you'd get that one right.

[han]

That's a good point but I think that if you have shown to have no keycards then RHO may very well play the Q from Q10. After all, the 10 would make it very easy for you and RHO knows that.

[Echognome]

Jlall, on Feb 11 2008, 02:27 PM, said:

I don't like when people say "HT" in this situation. QT and KT are not the same. They will play K from KT 100 % of the time and Q from QT 0 % of the time. That being said, they're supposed to play K from KQ 100 % as well but people make mistakes and play the Q sometimes. If they play the Q I will always play for KQ and if they play the K I will always play for KT. If they play the T I will always play for QT.

Agree with this, although I know I'm guilty of the abuse of terminology at times.

I just want to add that if righty plays small (neither K, Q, nor T) then your only play is to duck entirely and hope lefty has KQ tight.

[whereagles]

skaeran, you should stick to the "missed slam" threads. At least those have a play