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How To Win

#1 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 14:15

Scoring: IMP

(1)-3-(Dbl)-?


What's the gameplan?
Kevin Fay
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#2 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 14:18

after the mandatory ramblings of "depends who partner is, depends what he wjos with", I'd bid 6 most of the time and 5 with more imaginative partners. I would not bid any more.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#3 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 14:20

I would bid 6, which could be a good save against game.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#4 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 14:37

Yes, 6. It would be really optimistic to expect to beat 5 of something.
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#5 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 14:45

6D for me too. I'm mildly worried that we can beat 5H with AS and a spade ruff, and another trick, this means 6D becomes very cheap. I would have a nagging feeling if I bid 5D and they competed to 5H.
"Phil" on BBO
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#6 User is offline   matmat 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 14:47

5 if I trust p to take it as a lead direct diamond raise. 6 otherwise
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#7 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 14:53

pclayton, on Jan 28 2008, 03:45 PM, said:

6D for me too. I'm mildly worried that we can beat 5H with AS and a spade ruff, and another trick, this means 6D becomes very cheap. I would have a nagging feeling if I bid 5D and they competed to 5H.

Of course you might not even beat 6.....
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#8 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 14:56

5D.

Do they have heart fit, maybe, but the guy
who made the neg. X most likely denied a
fit for partner.
Do they have a club fit, maybe, but hard to
find out over 5D.
Do they have a spadefit, maybe, but they are
welcome to play spade.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#9 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 14:58

Added information.

Partner's preempts are quite often suspect. Sitting at the table you feel the odds are in favor of the opponents' making 6X.
Kevin Fay
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#10 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 15:00

kfay, on Jan 28 2008, 03:58 PM, said:

Added information.

Partner's preempts are quite often suspect.  Sitting at the table you feel the odds are in favor of the opponents' making 6X.

The odds are in favor of partner holding a singleton spade or another trick somewhere.
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#11 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 15:00

kfay, on Jan 28 2008, 03:58 PM, said:

Added information.

Partner's preempts are quite often suspect. Sitting at the table you feel the odds are in favor of the opponents' making 6X.

Just because they may make 6?, does
not mean they will bid it over 5D.
But if they bid it, I guess we are talking
about 6H, they will also bid it over 6D.

With kind regards
Marlowe
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Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#12 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 15:04

suspect as in having outside values or suspect as in xxxxxx and out? not the same, dude
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#13 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 15:05

6D
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#14 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 15:39

Count me in.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#15 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-January-28, 16:25

6D looks good
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#16 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 16:36

I also bid 6 at the table but was a little disconcerted at how comfortable I felt doing it. I felt like that opponents would also be quite comfortable and manage fine. They did.

I don't quite remember the hand but the long and short of it is that LHO held:



and made an overtrick when partner led a and dummy hit with Kx and the A.

Push board.

In hindsight I wish I'd bid 7, LHO bids 7 and now I double for a lead (we have that agreement). Maybe this is an isolated incident but I've seen about 4 or 5 hands like this and to my recollection preempting at the 7-level was the winning action.

At the very least I wish I'd bid 5 (SJS) to get a 1-imp gain.
Kevin Fay
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#17 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 16:42

The problem with 7 is that you the opponents usually are boxed into doubling and you are probably going for 800. If game is the limit on the hand, you've already lost 8 or so. If you are saccing over a slam, then you are only gaining 4.

On a really, really bad day, the opponents are taking the push to 6 which you are beating with the spade ruff. You just turned a huge plus position (+50) into a huge minus.

I think it's pretty weird that LHO had a TEN bagger, don't you?
"Phil" on BBO
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#18 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 16:43

5 for me.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#19 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-January-28, 16:44

I dont like 7D at all, you have too much of a chance to beat 6H to even want to save over it imo. Even if you cant go spade spade ruff you have a shot of another trick materializing. Not to mention that 6D will usually get doubled, so 7D will just give up another 300 a lot of the time.
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#20 User is offline   brianshark 

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Posted 2008-January-28, 17:47

Well, discounting the freak hand that our LHO pulled on us in the actual original, as an abstract problem I think I would try to buy it in 5 first. I might compete to 6 if opps bid 5M or I might not, depending on my mood, how confidently they bid over me, etc. And yes, I'm fully aware I'm giving them more room to exchange information than a direct 6. But I think the chance of buying it in the cheaper 5x is worth the risk.
The difference between theory and practice is that in theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice, there is.
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