[FrancesHinden]

Here is the first 3NT play problem of 2008. This time I think I know what the right line is, but what usually happens is that the replies on BBO cause me to have a rethink...

Scoring: IMP

1♥ P P 1NT
P 2♣ P 2NT
P 3♥ P 3NT
all pass

---

1H = 4-card majors, weak NT
1NT = 10-15
2C = range enquiry, 2NT = maximum
3H = Staymanic

West leads the 8 of clubs which runs to the 10 and your queen.
You play a diamond to West's jack and dummy's ace, and another diamond to the 8, king and West's heart discard.

Plan the play.

[Fluffy]

at first it looks like LHO had a 3514, wich means easy 9 tricks if we play a spade to the queen.

the problem comes if he has 4414, then we got to strip west to play a heart.

you could try a club to try that LHO fails to unclock clubs, but actually what works best is to cash another diamond and squeeze him.

[Fluffy]

sorry, 2 more diamonds.

[foo]

♠Q963 ♥A64 ♦A32 ♣K73
+
♠A54 ♥Q973 ♦KQ65 ♣Q6

(1H) -pa-pa-1N;
2C-2N; 3H!-3N.

We've got 5 top tricks and need 4 more.

T1: C8-C3-CT-CQ*
T2: D5-DJ-DA*-Dx
T3: D3-D8-DK*-Hx

In the absence of any comment to the contrary by the OP, I'm assuming standard opening leads. Thus unless W started with exactly ♣AJ98 or AJ98x, the C8 can't be 4th down.

W heard the auction, saw Dummy, then discarded a ♥ anyway even though Our ♥'s are not great. I'd say W started with 5 ♥'s, KJxxx.
That makes W opp E hands:
?,5,1,1+ opp ?,1,5,1+
or
?, KJxxx, DJ, 8(Axxxx?) opp ?, x, T9xxx, T(Axxxx?)

Seems like playing for 33 ♠'s at this point is premature.

The locations of the SK, SJ, HK, HJ, CA, and CJ are not yet proven.
But given the auction, it is unlikely E has any of the A's or K's. There simply is not enough HCP out for W to have an opening bid else.

All this suggests something like
KJ??_KJxxx_J_A8x opp ??_x_T98xx_JTxxx

EDIT: oh, the play line:
cash one more top ♦,
then play a small ♠ to dummy's SQ.
Assuming it lives, play a small ♠ back to your hand's SA.
Then throw W in with a ♠.

[655321]

Probably I am missing something, since this is a Frances problem, but:

Opener has AJ98(x) clubs. The ♣7 in dummy prevents anything nasty from the defence such as letting East win the 3rd round of clubs. AJ98 does not seem an attractive lead, so perhaps West is 2515 (would he rebid 2♣?), but he could be 3514, or even 4414 (wouldn't a ♠ lead be more attractive?).

Anyway, I just play a ♣ to the King, and ♠A and another. If West has all the high cards, we have 8 top tricks, and West will have to give us a 9th.

Can West gain by unblocking the ♠K under the Ace? I think we will still be OK if we correctly pick him for 2 spades (he can be endplayed) or 3 spades (we play 3 rounds, setting up the 13th spade). But that does seem to be what I missed.

More thought needed.

[foo]

When W neither bids 2C, nor X's for a C lead/return it seems safe to assume W is not 55 in the Roundeds with AJ98x of ♣'s.

(This assumes the more or less standard agreement that a lead directing X vs a NT auction/contract asks for the lead/return of Dummy's 1st bid suit.)

Also, if W is 55 in H+C, and they know We have 7 ♥'s from the bidding + Dummy, why discard a ♥ rather than a ♣ on T3?

...and what will W discard when we play our 3rd ♦?

[hrothgar]

I don't think that we can necessarily read anything into the 8 of Clubs lead. (I certainly wouldn't assume that this is 4th best). I think that its fairly likely that West doesn't want to underlead the KJTx of Hearts or his nice Spade suit into a balancing NT. (In short, I wouldn't be shocked to find West with a 4=5=1=3)

I'd immediately play a low Spade to the Queen. If this wins, I'd then try to duck a Spade to West.

Win the return, then cash the King of Diamonds

[Halo]

Since West can unblock spades, I'd play spades to the queen without cashing my diamond stop. I think this will leave me better placed later, in general.

[ceeb]

I assume that West would not open 1H with 41 in the red suits. Hence West is probably 2515 or 3514 or less understandably 4513 or 2614. I'll play for the 1st two.

Low club. I'm playing that West has AJ98(x) and East will play a true card. West may as well play ♣A, ♣.

If West seems to have only 4 clubs, bang out the spades.

If East played clubs down the line, play the ♠A. If West unblocks the ♠K, the cash ♦K (♥ discard from West), cross in ♠, play ♥ to the 9.

If no unblock, continue with ♠ is good enough and safer against a misread.

[gnasher]

I think the best I can do is to play for West to be 3514, 4414 or 4513, with SK, HK and CA. I don't think I can cope with 2515 as well. If West has four clubs, they are probably AJ98, but I may be able to cope with his having led one from A8xx or A98x as well.
(Incidentally, there's no reason to think that West would have led a spade if he had four - North has shown spades.)

If West has three spades, I plan to make three spades, three diamonds, two clubs and a heart. If West has four spades, I plan to make two spades, three diamonds, two clubs and two hearts, using the fourth spade to endplay him.

My basic plan is this:
- Lead a club towards dummy, to set up a club trick.
- Play ace and another spade to set up dummy's queen. (Note that I can't instead play DQ, small spade, because West may play low on the spade from Kxx, threatening to let his partner get in and cash diamonds.)
- If West still has a spade guard, use it to endplay him to lead from his HK.

West can't hurt me by unblocking SK, by playing low on the second spade, or by taking CA and switching to spades himself. I just score a club and two spades, and exit with a spade - either spades are 3-3 or West is endplayed.

If West plays low on the club, I win and play another club immediately. If East is able to win this (West having led C8 from A8xx or A98x) and play a heart, then if West is 4414 I have to cash DK to squeeze him. However, on this trick he can throw either a heart or SK, and I'll have to guess whether he's 4414 or 3514.

There is one more complication: West plays low on the club, I win and play another club, and West wins CA, possibly leaving an entry in his partner's hand. Now West leads a low spade. Again I have to guess the layout - if he's 4414 with a small club, my sure line is SQ, DQ to squeeze him; if he's 3514 I have to set up the third round of spades without relinquishing DQ, in case West unblocks.

I don't find this line very satisfactory, for three reasons:
- Not being able to cope perfectly with the possibility that West has led from A8xx or A98x
- The fact that if West has led from AJ98 then East's C10 was a clear misplay
- Not being able to cope with West's 2515, when it ought to be possible to bring some pressure to bear on East.

So, is there something better? And do I get a slow play penalty for taking two days to play the hand?

[gnasher]

gnasher, on Jan 9 2008, 08:06 PM, said:

I don't think I can cope with 2515 as well.

Actually, this isn't quite true: I can cope with his holding SK10 or SKJ alone. After CQ, club to West's A, CK, SA (West unblocking K), spade, if West plays J or 10 I can duck without giving up any of my other chances.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2008-January-15, 08:15

[dburn]

Part of the right line may consist in finding out what West systemically opens with 4=4=1=4 shape. 1♥ would be slightly unusual in that it might leave an awkward rebid over a 2♦ response.

[FrancesHinden]

gnasher has reminded me that I haven't closed this thread off.
As ever the replies have made me have a slight rethink, but here's my analysis:

- I don't think the opening lead is from A98x, who would lead the 8 at random from that suit? It's either AJ98, AJ98x or A98. Yes, RHO should not have played the 10 with one of the first two, but it's a very natural mistake for someone to make. And anyway, if the lead was from A98x LHO would of course have discarded the CA on the diamonds. By the way, although 4414 is possible as LHO's hand, I'm not convinced he would discard a heart on the second diamond as we are marked with long hearts.

- Given you agree with that bit, and assuming LHO does have an opening bid, the contract is cold double-dummy. We merely have to decide how many spades he started with.
(i) with Kx of spades we play a club to the king now. If he ducks this, we continue with a spade to the ace and a second spade; if he unblocks the king under the ace we cash the queen and exit in clubs; either way he will have to give us a heart trick. If he rises on the club and plays a third club we win, take the ace of spades and play a spade to the queen - either he has to win this spade with the king and be endplayed after cashing the clubs, or if he unblocks the SK we can play a heart to our 9 for the endplay (covering the 9 or 10 from East). Same if he exits with the SK after taking the CA - cash the third club and the other spade and play a heart. At some point we can take the last diamond in all of this.

As a side point, if he plays the SJ on the second round, we duck it. This still works if he started with KJ doubleton, but also picks up KJx.

(ii) with Kxx spades we play a spade towards the queen now. They can't stop 3 spade tricks whatever unblocking they do. You can't play the club first, it screws up the entries unless LHO has KJ.

(iii) with Kxxx spades we can play either black suit, LHO is going to get stuffed whatever we do.

So a club or a spade now?
I think the right line is a club now. It picks up Kx and KJx on our left. It also has more potential for misdefence. If we play a spade now I don't think it's that hard for LHO to rise, cash the CA and exit. But on a club up, it will be much less obvious to rise and exit with the SK. And even then, after SA, SQ we can still change our minds and play a third spade.

What happened at the table was rather a comedy of errors.

West actually has

Kx
K10xxx
J
AJ98x

Declarer won the club lead in hand and played two rounds of diamonds on which West discarded a heart. He then played a spade towards the queen in dummy. LHO went in with the King and extied with a low club. Declarer rose with the king, but exited with a third club without cashing the SQ first. West won the club, but rather than exit with the second spade he cashed all the clubs squeezing East in spades and diamonds.

[gnasher]

FrancesHinden, on Jan 31 2008, 11:33 AM, said:

(ii) with Kxx spades ... You can't play the club first, it screws up the entries unless LHO has KJ.

How so? I play a club; West wins and plays another; I play ace and anther spade, if necessary winning the queen and playing a third round. I have HA as an entry for dummy's spade. The defence have only three clubs and a spade to take.