[hotShot]

I'm not concerned about going down for a number, i have 8 looser and playing 2♣ this is down 3.
Additionally if I go down 3, opps probably can make 6 something.
And even if partner has few or no HCP, there is a good chance his ♥Q or T will make a trick, or ♣K is onside, or opps allow me to make ♥K.
Down 2 doubled when opps can make 4M is no reason to worry.

As others said, the risk is in allowing opps to bid game.

[jtfanclub]

What do I think partner has?

♠ J8
♥ QJ743
♦ Q64
♣ K93

(this is just a mix of a hand from another forum, not picked for any special reason).

Just to make sure, I made a poll with an even more extreme hand....

♠ J
♥ QJ7643
♦ Q64
♣ K93

And still nobody would bid with it (neither would I, but I've been surprised before).

This doesn't seem like a special hand to me...if opener has about 15 hcp, partner should have about 9. Yeah, opener might have 19 and I'll feel silly (if they make 4, which is not guaranteed), but it's more likely to be something like this.

The first response asked in this thread was 'where are the hearts'? I think the most likely answer is- partner has them.

P.S. The more I think about it, the less I think it likely that the opponents have game in hearts. That would make 2♣ a safe bid, instead of 3. I may have to reconsider which balancing bid I would make.

[whereagles]

Émile Borel, a famous XXth century mathematician, has once written a very interesting article on the statistics of balancing, on which he claims that, statistically, the min strength for balancing without the remaining major(s) is 12-13 hcp and up. Balancing with less that that risks transforming a good score into a bad one.

On the other hand, he also claims that if you do have the major(s), 7 hcp is quite enough

The article is like 60 or 70 years old, so don't ask me for a reference I can, however, tell you I read about it in some English magazine.

[pclayton]

2♣ for me, and I am well aware of the risks that they may have a nice heart fit.

Are the passers aware that we may have 3N our way?

[hotShot]

pclayton, on Feb 14 2007, 08:19 PM, said:

2♣ for me, and I am well aware of the risks that they may have a nice heart fit.

Are the passers aware that we may have 3N our way?

I believe in partners ability to find a bid with a strong or distributional hand in 2nd seat.
So I am quite sure that we won't have 3NT, because if he had the strength needed for that, he should have bid over 1♠.

[cherdano]

hotShot, on Feb 14 2007, 01:07 PM, said:

pclayton, on Feb 14 2007, 08:19 PM, said:

2♣ for me, and I am well aware of the risks that they may have a nice heart fit.

Are the passers aware that we may have 3N our way?

I believe in partners ability to find a bid with a strong or distributional hand in 2nd seat.
So I am quite sure that we won't have 3NT, because if he had the strength needed for that, he should have bid over 1♠.

I want to be in 3N opposite most balanced 13-14 counts with the ♣K and a spade stopper. Please don't tell me partner would have bid 1N with that...

[Echognome]

pclayton, on Feb 14 2007, 10:19 AM, said:

2♣ for me, and I am well aware of the risks that they may have a nice heart fit.

Are the passers aware that we may have 3N our way?

Sure. Nothing in life is guaranteed. Will you regret more missing 3NT or the opponents bidding and making 4♥? Both are unlikely, but real possibilities. You pick your battles. I think the number of hands where we can bid and make 3NT are less likely than the number of hands where we have just helped the opponents improve their strain.

[pclayton]

Echognome, on Feb 14 2007, 04:05 PM, said:

pclayton, on Feb 14 2007, 10:19 AM, said:

2♣ for me, and I am well aware of the risks that they may have a nice heart fit.

Are the passers aware that we may have 3N our way?

Sure. Nothing in life is guaranteed. Will you regret more missing 3NT or the opponents bidding and making 4♥? Both are unlikely, but real possibilities. You pick your battles. I think the number of hands where we can bid and make 3NT are less likely than the number of hands where we have just helped the opponents improve their strain.

20 years ago, I might agree with this. Nowadays with RHO responding on most hands holding a 4 count, the chances of the opponents having a game in hearts is pretty slim.

I would go further than what Han says here; the right 10-12 gives us a good shot at 3N, and its eminently biddable if pard has the right hand with club help.

I think if you ran a sim; I'd wager its 3:1 to a 3N our way compared to 4♥ their way.

Its also possible we have both

[han]

pclayton, on Feb 14 2007, 09:10 PM, said:

I would go further than what Han says here; the right 10-12 gives us a good shot at 3N, and its eminently biddable if pard has the right hand with club help.

Erm, I didn't post in this thread yet. But you must have read my mind, I voted for "always" a while ago. I'm not as sure as you are that this is right, but I know that I usually bid with hands like this.

A simulation would be difficult to do.. the results would depend on the opponent's style (both opening and responding), on partner's overcalling style, and on what partner expects for our balancing bids.

[pclayton]

Hannie, on Feb 14 2007, 06:26 PM, said:

pclayton, on Feb 14 2007, 09:10 PM, said:

I would go further than what Han says here; the right 10-12 gives us a good shot at 3N, and its eminently biddable if pard has the right hand with club help.

Erm, I didn't post in this thread yet. But you must have read my mind, I voted for "always" a while ago. I'm not as sure as you are that this is right, but I know that I usually bid with hands like this.

A simulation would be difficult to do.. the results would depend on the opponent's style (both opening and responding), on partner's overcalling style, and on what partner expects for our balancing bids.

Yeah; I get you and Arend mixed up

[han]

OK Phil, now you've done it.

[pclayton]

As long as you don't confuse me with Haspel, we're good.

[Echognome]

pclayton, on Feb 14 2007, 06:10 PM, said:

20 years ago, I might agree with this. Nowadays with RHO responding on most hands holding a 4 count, the chances of the opponents having a game in hearts is pretty slim.

I would go further than what Han says here; the right 10-12 gives us a good shot at 3N, and its eminently biddable if pard has the right hand with club help.

I think if you ran a sim; I'd wager its 3:1 to a 3N our way compared to 4♥ their way.

Its also possible we have both

If EW are playing a strong club, RHO may be passing with up to a misfitting 9 count. But I certainly don't assume that's what they're playing (else Roland might have mentioned it).

It's also different responding to 1m and 1M in that regards.

Regardless, I take that wager any day of the week. 3:1 odds is pretty good.

[Walddk]

Scoring: IMP

---

Here is the full layout. One hand doesn't prove anything, but it was horribly wrong to balance with 2♣. West doubled for take-out and East left it in.

It went for 800 (Arend was close) by force when East was able to pitch three diamonds on the top spades. I think declarer was a little unlucky. East chose the right moment to pass 1♠ (some would perhaps have responded 1NT), but the spotlight would still have been on South.

Would she have overcalled 2♣ anyway? I am convinced that some would have, but we will never know.

Roland

[Gerben42]

Well, at least it wasn't 4♥ for them on this one. I take that 3:1 bet by the way!

[mink]

This is a freak hand where EW make 8 tricks regardless if they play in their own 8-card ♥-fit or opps play ♣ where the have only 6 trump cards. Indeed it does not prove anything.

Karl

[whereagles]

Walddk, on Feb 15 2007, 08:06 AM, said:

Here is the full layout. One hand doesn't prove anything, but it was horribly wrong to balance with 2♣.

It was indeed wrong, but for an unlikely reason.

[kenberg]

I was one of the ten votes for passing (honest) but I'll restrain myself. My favorite partner and I have an ongoing discussion. He thinks I balance to little, I think he balances too much. The other night he balanced with a double in fourth seat against a weak nt. Not only was I down four, I had to play the damn thing. I am sure he can provide cases when I let us be stolen blind. Pick your poison.

[mike777]

Wow a truly great, great post. Lawrence seems to say pass is clear, Justin seems to say 2clubs is clear, wow.

[blackshoe]

I want to bid, but then I always want to bid. In this case the question is, I think, can we outbid the opponents? I don't think we can.

2♣ may be right, but thinking about it, it seems to me that too many things can go wrong. So if I''m not bidding too quickly (a fault I still haven't managed to correct) I'm passing.