[Badmonster]

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I was south in 2h. West lead the 5♦ I sat and thought for about five minutes. I thought things like... that has to bid 4th best and if it's fouth then the king rates to be with length ergo west has the king and I should play the queen. So I did and east covered. And I wondered how I should have known.



(I posted the hand so everyone has some context but I think my question is broader. I don't want to know which to play on this hand as much as I'd like to know how to reason out which to play on any hand.)

A smart friend said I should have played low and waited to see what else was going on, but what if I couldn't afford to?

[barmar]

You can't "know". And in this case, you can give West credit for a clevel lead, although the way the card lie the normal J lead would have worked just as well.

The decision needs to be part of an overall plan of how you're going to play the hand. Assuming the K is in the slot, do you need your ♦ tricks right away, or can you wait until trumps are drawn? Notice that if the finesse is on, you can score the Q later -- draw trumps ending in hand, and then lead up towards the Q. However, there's a danger in this. If you lose the ♥ finesse to Qx, West can then cash the [DK] and give East a ruff.

Another thing that factors into the decision is the auction. You didn't provide it, but I'm guessing you opened 2♥ in 1st/2nd/3rd seat, and it played there. Unfortunately, that doesn't tell you much in this case, except that West wasn't strong enough to overcall and East didn't have a good hand to balance with. But on other boards you may have more information that will help you decide.

[Badmonster]

Yes. Exactly as it happened 2h p p p.

Thanks, for your response. It helps. Often I will have more information to work with and I could have (perhaps should have) delayed the decision.

[cherdano]

I will say a few obvious things.
It always depends on the rest of the hand. If you have xx opposite AQx and you have a discard for your second card in the suit, you play the A. If you can't get rid of it and you need the trick, play the Q. E.g. in this hand it only looks like playing the Q was wrong. You will always lose two diamond tricks.
Ask them about their lead agreements. (Either this pair didn't know what they were doing, or they were playing 2/4 and/or Rusinow leads; in any case, the standard lead from Jx is the J.) If they play "Jack denies" and lead a jack...
Think about why opening leader chose this suit, about the number of high cards he should have, etc.
The principle of delaying the guess is of course sound. Say you would find out that RHO must have the ♦K later (after you took the A on first trick). Then you would duck the second round of diamond, hoping he started with ♦Kx.

Arend

[ArcLight]

One general piece of advice - looking at your assets, you want the opponents to open (break) new suits for you. If you duck the Diamond, RHO (East) will be on lead, and probably anything they lead will be benficial. It will at least reveal information if its a spade and you can see what honor west has.


-From the lead, West doesnt have the ♠AK.

-Given the # of spades the opps have, why didnt they lead them? Perhaps West has the Ace? Then don't play the Q, duck a spade lead from East and see if West has the Jack as well.

- the ♦5 might be a stiff, so the finesse will lose.


Also, if 2♠ makes, then down 2 undoubled is not bad.