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play 6C

#1 User is offline   Yu18772 

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Posted 2012-July-31, 02:20

You got to 6 on the following hand (South is declaring):


Lead A and switch to small . What would be the best line of play?

Posted ImageYu
Yehudit Hasin

"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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#2 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-July-31, 02:41

A; heart ruff; two top clubs ending in dummy, bringing down the queen; heart ruff; diamond ruff. Now:
- If clubs were 2-2 or LHO had a singleton queen: ruff the hearts good; draw the last trump.
- If LHO had 10xx: spade to the ace; cash the rest of the winners. In the ending decide whether to take a spade finesse or play for someone to have been squeezed. The squeeze works when LHO has K and Q, or either hand has Q and Q.

Variations:
If K comes down in three rounds, just draw trumps.
If RHO has Kxxxx and we haven't been overruffed, take a ruffing finesse.
If LHO has Kxxxx, play the squeeze line.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#3 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2012-July-31, 03:46

View Postgnasher, on 2012-July-31, 02:41, said:

A; heart ruff; two top clubs ending in dummy, bringing down the queen; heart ruff; diamond ruff. Now:
- If clubs were 2-2 or LHO had a singleton queen: ruff the hearts good; draw the last trump.
- If LHO had 10xx: spade to the ace; cash the rest of the winners. In the ending decide whether to take a spade finesse or play for someone to have been squeezed. The squeeze works when LHO has K and Q, or either hand has Q and Q.

Variations:
If K comes down in three rounds, just draw trumps.
If RHO has Kxxxx and we haven't been overruffed, take a ruffing finesse.
If LHO has Kxxxx, play the squeeze line.


Is this really better than just ruffing two diamonds? Moreover, no one leads an ace from ace queen against slam so rho bound to have the diamond q, which makes ruffing two diamonds even better, Singleton ace makes 3-1 clubs v likely, so the only real danger is lho having QT or Q6 clubs when he can force the K and the club hook loses.
The physics is theoretical, but the fun is real. - Sheldon Cooper
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#4 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2012-July-31, 04:17

View Postphil_20686, on 2012-July-31, 03:46, said:

Is this really better than just ruffing two diamonds? Moreover, no one leads an ace from ace queen against slam so rho bound to have the diamond q, which makes ruffing two diamonds even better, Singleton ace makes 3-1 clubs v likely, so the only real danger is lho having QT or Q6 clubs when he can force the K and the club hook loses.

Trouble is that ruffing two diamonds means you have to find 3 entries to your hand before drawing trumps.
So claiming that this line is safer than gnasher's line is an illusion.

Rainer Herrmann
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#5 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-July-31, 06:49

Is it reasonable to infer that cashing the A means that LHO thinks his chances for another trick are pretty good? ... and therefore I assign him both the K and Q? In reality I would expect it to mean he has Qxx but of course that makes it hopeless.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
-gwnn
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#6 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2012-July-31, 07:19

View Postrhm, on 2012-July-31, 04:17, said:

Trouble is that ruffing two diamonds means you have to find 3 entries to your hand before drawing trumps.
So claiming that this line is safer than gnasher's line is an illusion.

Rainer Herrmann


I have two heart ruffs and the space ace, so it needs only the red suits to break evenly. There are also extra chance if an honour comes down in either red suit.
The physics is theoretical, but the fun is real. - Sheldon Cooper
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#7 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2012-July-31, 07:35

View Postphil_20686, on 2012-July-31, 07:19, said:

I have two heart ruffs and the space ace, so it needs only the red suits to break evenly. There are also extra chance if an honour comes down in either red suit.


Sure but how does gnasher's line fare then? If 2 hearts ruff stand up his line looks good too and he might make if trumps are 2-2 and LHO has only 2 hearts.

Rainer Herrmann
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#8 User is offline   Yu18772 

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Posted 2012-July-31, 10:22

View Postbillw55, on 2012-July-31, 06:49, said:

Is it reasonable to infer that cashing the A means that LHO thinks his chances for another trick are pretty good? ... and therefore I assign him both the K and Q? In reality I would expect it to mean he has Qxx but of course that makes it hopeless.


LHO is a good player, but not expert, RHO is a weaker player among the two, club level team game both vul (IMP).
During the action N skipped diamond control, S still asked aces. A looked more like taking the trick while its still there, than anything else.

Posted ImageYu
Yehudit Hasin

"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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#9 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-July-31, 11:01

View Postrhm, on 2012-July-31, 07:35, said:

Sure but how does gnasher's line fare then? If 2 hearts ruff stand up his line looks good too and he might make if trumps are 2-2 and LHO has only 2 hearts.

If clubs are 10xx-Q, I'm going to need something else - a squeeze or a spade finesse - whereas Phil isn't. Here are some approximate numbers:

I gain against clubs 2-2 (but not xx-Q10) and hearts 2=5 (but not Kx-xxxxx).
(0.4 * 5/6) * (0.15 * 5/7) = 3.6%

Phil gains against clubs 10xx-Q and my not being able to get another trick from somewhere. Even on a bad day I should be able to find the extra trick 50% of the time.
(0.5 * 1/8) * 0.5 = 3.1%

So I think I come out ahead.

(I also gain when Phil gets overruffed in diamonds, which may or may not be possible, depending on the bidding.)
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#10 User is offline   Yu18772 

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Posted 2012-July-31, 15:47

Thank you!
...on the actual layout (T-Qxx) everyone goes down :(
I payed Phil's line at the table, and wanted to see if there is something to do about Q 3rd split.
Posted ImageYu
Yehudit Hasin

"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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